Recession & unemployment

WTF?_2

brightonman123 wrote: »

petrol up, food up, house prices down, firms gooing bust- its already here!!

Sort of - a recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative growth.

Officially, we haven't even had one yet (the last one was 0% growth, if the figures are to be believed :rolleyes: )

So it would be another six months before we could say for sure that we are in the textbook definition of a recession.

Although quite obviously, these are the early stages of a recession. What is truly scary are all the early casualties.

I guess those years of house prices going through the roof as a result of people borrowing loads of cash (and banks lending it to them) weren't a good idea after all. Who could have seen that one coming?

Dithering_Dad

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Quite a few people have a lot of physical net-worth (and sometimes self-worth) tied up in the price of their property.

Seeing that net/self worth eroded causes grief: Enter, the Kuebler-Ross Model.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model


A lot of the 'bulls' posting here seem to be still caught in the 'anger' stage.

A few remarkably, after a year of constant price falls, appear to still be stuck somewhere around 'denial'.


When you're in denial and angry, what do you do? 'Lash out' seems to be a popular response and what better target for your aggression that anonymous stranger on the internet who has been predicting this?

It's nothing new or particular to the internet. It's just easier to do these days:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_the_messenger

'Don't shoot the messenger".

A message is one thing, the way the message is delivered is another. I'm happy to talk about the recession and its impact on individuals and house prices. I'm happy to talk about how rising house prices has damaged the economy and was a scourge on family budgets and family life. I am also happy to talk about how people have a tendancy to jump on a particular bandwaggon such as BTL or investing in tech shares.

What I don't do is slaver and giggle at the prospect of people losing their jobs, the prospect of people losing their houses nor will I taunt people who have invested in property, especially if they have every intention of making a successful business of it and are a good landlord to their tenants.

I guess I'm just not you !!!!!! or Dopester and thank goodness for that.

Just because I don't want to boost my own feeling of self-worth by mocking other people who are doing badly financially doesn't mean that I am in denial about the economy.

Indeed, I saw all this coming a long time ago and instead of moving house when ours started to feel too small for our growing family I built an extension. Instead of spending money I embarked on a period of debt reduction and wiped 25% off my mortgage - I also encouraged others to do the same in the MFi3 group.

Some others on here saw it coming and decided to continue not being able to afford to buy a house, then proclaimed themselves as financial experts. :rotfl:

fatpig_2

!!!!!!? wrote: »

A lot of the 'bulls' posting here seem to be still caught in the 'anger' stage.

A few remarkably, after a year of constant price falls, appear to still be stuck somewhere around 'denial'.


When you're in denial and angry, what do you do? 'Lash out' seems to be a popular response and what better target for your aggression that anonymous stranger on the internet who has been predicting this?


.

The value of my house is falling by thousands of pounds every week - I feel sick, what will I do - I know I'll go on a internet forum and become a troll.

You know who you are. Very strange people that's all I can say.

Generali

Dithering_Dad wrote: »

It's a double whammy to lose your job in the last quarter of the year. Christmas is on the way which is obviously an expensive time, but also everything seems to slow down, including recruitment, in anticipation.

I wonder how many of those ordinary people are BTLers? Probably more likely they're ordinary people on low-ish income who own or rent modest homes and are now caught up in the recession that many HPC people have been rubbing their hands in excitement for.

As I keep saying, be careful what you wish for.

XL will employ pilots, accountants, IT people and plenty of other highly skilled staff. I mean what about the trolly dollies*? That lipstick doesn't just apply itself you know.

I'm not sure that wishing for a recession makes it happen, even if you get the big half of the wishbone. There is something mildly unpleasant about people that wish for a recession and even economic collapse as a few (a very few) posters apparently want. BTW, I don't include those that predict rather than desire bad times.







*I flew to Barbados with XL when Mrs Generali was heavily preganant with the younger of the Generalissimos. The cabin crew were wonderful - incredibly helpful and attentive towards Mrs Generali. The dismissive comment was meant as a jokey play on a stereotype.

StevieJ

kennyboy66 wrote: »

I think you are right, although we will only know for sure in about 9 months time. The debate surely is only about how bad and deep the recession.

Still, there are plenty of nutters out there who want to see an increase in interest rates.

And in here.

Dithering_Dad

StevieJ wrote: »

And in here.

I'm happy to see a rise in interest rates if it curbs inflation, gives foreign investors confidence in our monetary systems and provides a better return on my savings.

If people are concerned about rising interest rates impacting their mortgages or debts then they should arrange for long fixed-rate deals, pay down their debts or transfer them to loans/credit card with lower interest rates.

ultra10

dopester wrote: »

If Blanchboy cared so much he wouldn't have voted for an interest rate cut in 2005, which Merv voted against.

Fuel that HPI baby yeah. Good times never end. Totally sustainable.

I agree, I dont even know why this guy is on the MPC, nearly all of them have been "Dove like" IMO & its now that there weakness in 04/05 is catching up with them, but Blanchflower is a maveric & the most culpable for the current massive asset bubble,it would be even worse if he had his way, he seems to be getting a lot of publicity of late as the Sheeple think that rate cuts can only ever be a good thing !!...Rates perhaps should come down, but not until Inflation is quite obviously on it way down..

WTF?_2

StevieJ wrote: »

And in here.

If interest rates had been set properly in the first place - ie. raised during the runaway boom years - there would be a lot more scope to cut them now.

Because having low rates was considered the be-all and end-all of economic policy even as the economy was booming beyond sustainable levels, we are now paying for that because high inflation means there isn't the latitude to cut them as much as might be desirable to stimulate growth.


Maybe that lesson will be learned next time around.

RecoveringAlcoholic

The Party is Over.

The hangover will last for five years.

WTF?_2

RecoveringAlcoholic wrote: »

The Party is Over.

The hangover will last for five years.

Hey, why suffer a hangover?

Let's break out the emergency bottle of vodka and have a little hair of the dog. Slash interest rates and get the government to buy up all the bad debt (making taxpayers pay for it) and all will be well again .... or will it?