London house prices fall 5.3% in a month

Generali

mitchaa wrote: »

The genuine NE of the country is booming industry wise;)

That's interesting. I've based my idea that house prices are going to fall most in the NE on the fact that in the NE of England, 70% of GDP comes from Government spending and the Government is simply going to run out of money meaning they'll have to slash spending. If that happens then 'urban regeneration schemes' (an art gallery showing govt subsidised art and a dozen privately owned bars for getting drunk in that charming British way) that have been propping up large parts of the UK but the NE especially would be up for the chop.

If the economy of the NE is starting to actually produce things that people want to buy then that is good news and not just for the housing market.

mitchaa

Generali wrote: »

That's interesting. I've based my idea that house prices are going to fall most in the NE on the fact that in the NE of England, 70% of GDP comes from Government spending and the Government is simply going to run out of money meaning they'll have to slash spending. If that happens then 'urban regeneration schemes' (an art gallery showing govt subsidised art and a dozen privately owned bars for getting drunk in that charming British way) that have been propping up large parts of the UK but the NE especially would be up for the chop.

If the economy of the NE is starting to actually produce things that people want to buy then that is good news and not just for the housing market.

The genuine NE of the country as in GB, not England;)

Newcastle/Sunderland etc are NE England but not NE Britain. On a map they're fairly central actually, nothing north about them There is a booming economy north north east

Generali

mitchaa wrote: »

The genuine NE of the country as in GB, not England;)

I see. Isn't that just oil related though? Or is there other non-oil industry too?

mitchaa

Generali wrote: »

I see. Isn't that just oil related though? Or is there other non-oil industry too?

Haggis and Whisky;)

Oil industry isn't just about the rigs offshore, there is massive onshore infrastructure supporting, not just in Aberdeen itself but for about 100 miles of the NE coastline. The aviation industry providing the helicopters to fly out to offshore platforms is a good example, that in Aberdeen is massive, employs a lot of people. All the onshore servicing and training companies for offshore workers/equipment etc etc

Apart from Aberdeens oil and Londons world stock exchange, what else is there in Britain that is just as big that would see housing remain stable? You surely can't believe it's just London and Aberdeen that have an industry to offer?

Just as a note on that..

Harrogate and York is such an expensive part of the UK to live in but there's no surrounding industry as such to explain as to why it's so expensive.

Generali

mitchaa wrote: »

Haggis and Whisky;)

Oil industry isn't just about the rigs offshore, there is massive onshore infastructure supporting, not just in Aberdeen itself but for about 100 miles of the NE coastline. The aviation industry providing the helicopters to fly out to offshore platforms is a good example, that in Aberdeen is massive, employs a lot of people. All the onshore servicing and training companies for offshore workers/equipment etc etc

My feeling is that this oil boom is going to subside as demand for oil drops along with the US economy.

mitchaa wrote: »

Apart from Aberdeens oil and Londons world stock exchange, what else is there in Britain that is just as big that would see housing remain stable? You surely can't believe it's just London and Aberdeen that have an industry to offer?

There's also whisk(e)y and agriculture. There is also some industry (eg software) and of course tourism. Finally, creative businesses such as music and advertising are doing well. I do find it hard to see what else UK PLC has to offer though. When I go to small ex-industrial or coastal towns there just doesn't seem to be any way to earn a living in the private sector in most cases.

mitchaa wrote: »

Just as a note on that..

Harrogate and York is such an expensive part of the UK to live in but there's no surrounding industry as such to explain as to why it's so expensive.

They are both enclaves where relatively wealthy people have got together through historical accident and they remain as such because they offer the things that the wealthy want. As such they are magnets for the newly wealthy of the area.

dopester

Generali wrote: »

and the Government is simply going to run out of money meaning they'll have to slash spending.

We're not long away from that, big time.

chewmylegoff

Generali wrote: »

Of course these are asking prices not completed sales.

quite. so, whilst not being useless information, this info is not as relevant as looking at the completed sales. almost every agent i have talked to in london over the last 2 months has been quite open that they have priced properties to take into account that people will put offers in well below asking price.

cutting the asking prices does not necessarily mean there will be the same percentage fall in the average completed sale price, which is the house price yard stick (although fall there will be!).

Incisor

chewmylegoff wrote: »

quite. so, whilst not being useless information, this info is not as relevant as looking at the completed sales. almost every agent i have talked to in london over the last 2 months has been quite open that they have priced properties to take into account that people will put offers in well below asking price.

So presumably, this drop in rightmove asking prices indicates that agents have come to the end of that strategy - they now realise that they can't inflate asking prices to compensate for people making lower offers, rather they have to price aggressively.

Mrs I and I are looking from afar at several houses which are overpriced. We won't even view until the asking comes down. We are not going to incur the vendor's wrath for low offers, we would rather wait until the vendors realise for themselves, drop prices and are grateful for us making any offer. That may sound a tad arrogant, but then I don't see it makes sense to be resented for making an offer which we can see will leave us with a loss in no more than 6 months - although we might be inclined to make such an offer to a vendor who will be happy to move on off the back of it.