The Times Newspaper Reports Property Will Not Drop Any Lower

ginvzt

ricey_23000 wrote: »

As an ex estate agent of 30 years I would tell anyone not to buy a property yet. The market will fall even further but the average vendor will not accept that yet. I sold my house at the end of last year as I could see what was in store. I am in rented accommodation and intend to stay here for at least 12 months. Price falls of at least 15% are still to come.

Are you still working or changed the line of business by now?

dudleyboy

pickledpink wrote: »

Why d'you want to buy again in 12 months time? You're heading towards your 70's!!!!!!!! Seems like a waste to me...........................but you obviously want to put your money back into bricks and mortar.

By the way, have you informed the Bank of England that prices are set to drop 15%?:D

Even if you really are an estate agent (you could be making it up!) how comes YOU know what no-one else knows for sure? Not even the Bank of England?

Ah, Pickles. Another ageist comment. You're an absolute delight, aren't you?

I suspect that Ricey is between 55 and 65 years of age and has lived and worked through at least 2 previous recessions. It might be worth listening to what they have to say.

I suggest you button your insolent youthful lip and listen and learn from an experienced elder, whether they're a genuine EA or not. There are several regular, older, posters on this board, such as Pobby, and the wiser ones among us hold their opinions and experience in respectful high regard.

The only thing separating them from you is that they were born first. Not a lot is it? Something to consider as your own clock ticks on since we're all getting older at the same rate.

BTW, congratulations on building up a BTL property empire in a rising market where credit was cheap and thrown at anyone willing to take it. It must have been quite a challenge. You should be proud.

harbinger13

Certainly the journalist is staking his reput on a call - difficult to substantiate but as they say the market knows no tops or bottoms - yes it is naked - of course in the logical sense.

I dont think any Invst Banker come to this forum - they have their own high paid forums, I guess.

mewbie_2

dudleyboy wrote: »

BTW, congratulations on building up a BTL property empire in a rising market where credit was cheap and thrown at anyone willing to take it. It must have been quite a challenge. You should be proud.

The real challenge is hanging on to it in a falling market...

meester

ginvzt wrote: »

We have been renting for just 3 months, but we already had enough!!!! I want my own house, where I can have the walls not magnolia, put the picture hooks in them and have the rubbish bin in the kitchen (no space in this place!!!!). And also I want a garden where I can go out an enjoy British weather (well, maybe not today...) :rolleyes:

Er, surely you should have rented a nicer place?

We rent for £1500/month (£18k/year), the next door house sold for £525k, mortgage rates are about 6.2% at the moment, so that's £2,700/month interest/only = £32.5k/year

We got new kitchen, new appliances when we moved in, gardener came in, repainted, replastered some rooms that were looking tired (all paid for by landlord). When the freezer broke they bought a new one.

So we are saving £15k/year on the rent compared to an interest only mortgage.

Then the moving-in costs would be £21k stamp duty, plus other fees to say £25k. Maximum LTV is 10%, so we'd need £52.5k deposit, so together about £80k. So that's another £4.8k/year just from the yield/interest on the £80k.

Then the maintenance costs are about £5k/year (not being paid by us).

Total savings then over a year:
£14,500 = interest-only mortgage - rent
£5,000 = maintenance
£4,800 = interest on our deposit
£63,000 = fall in value of house (at 12% per year)

Total comes to £87,300/year, or £7,300/month

All tax-free, so it's equivalent to increasing my salary by £140,000

Thanks landlord!

By the end of our next rental term (just re-signed for another 12 months) those figures will be double, so that will be nearly £300k I'd have effectively earned by staying here. My landlord is making me rich! :money:

BTW, there's plenty of room in our kitchen for a bin - if we'd bought on a £1500 mortgage we'd have FAR less space, and we have a lovely big garden.

And frankly with the hundreds of thousands of pounds we're saving, we'd not be too worried about having to patch up a few picture hook holes when we move out.

mewbie_2

Great post about the benefits of renting.

And you probably 'own' more or it (ie. 0 rather than a negative percentage) than those people who recently (last couple of years and rising) maxed into an interest only mortgage.

beingjdc

Oh for pity's sake. I've seen some madness, but this is truly special. The RICS is seasonally adjusted, and yes, it's gone up for two months now. But they're seasonally adjusting A NEAR ZERO NUMBER. How do you seasonally adjust 1%? It's like looking at a football team that lost 6-0 and trying to work out how well they'd have done on steroids. Maybe 3-3, but maybe still 6-0 (eg they were on a day out from the Old People's Home).

Here is the percentage of surveyors in the unadjusted figures who say prices are falling:

February 57
March 66
April 82
May 84
June 87
July 89

Here is the percentage of surveyors in the unadjusted figures who say prices are rising:

February 4
March 3
April 1
May 2
June 1
July 1

ginvzt

meester wrote: »

Er, surely you should have rented a nicer place?

We rent for £1500/month (£18k/year), the next door house sold for £525k, mortgage rates are about 6.2% at the moment, so that's £2,700/month interest/only = £32.5k/year

We needed to rent something quickly - I got a job and had to move within few weeks 120 miles!!! We are renting a coach house (£550 pm) and it is 3 years old. My OH viewed the place and it has enough space for us now, but we wouldn't stay here long term. That was the idea since the beginning. It is a new development and not a bad place at all, just not really our cup of tea. Just the previous tenants really didn't keep it in good order!!!! For some reason in the weeks before we started looking for real there was a huge rush to rent and all the properties that we liked suddenly were gone. If we won't find anything we like to buy by the end of AST, we might look to rent something more to our taste. The other benefit - we can learn about the area now, as before we had no idea about the surrounding villages.

mr.broderick

ricey_23000 wrote: »

As an estate agent for 38 years I would advise anyone not to buy yet. The market has still another 15% drop making a total fall of 25%. The market has bben driven buy investors taking up stupid mortgage offers and fraudulent purchases particularly of new build properties with builders offering as much as 25% cashback. I sold my property and I am in rented accommodation and intend to stay here for at least 12 months. I advise everyone else o do the same.

Ignore this..this guy is fake.

Pobby

£2,700 a month interest only!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hmmm renting from the bank.