Halifax July Figures show slowdown in price falls

mr.broderick

July Halifax figures show month on month fall of 1.7%. This is less than June 1.9% and May 2.5%. Looks like the minor correction is slowing. With an interest rate cut looking likely next month i envisage even smaller falls in the next couple of months with small rises occuring before the end of the year.

WTF?_2

Nice try. :rotfl:

mr.broderick

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Nice try. :rotfl:

You don't know what you have been missing chief...

Generali

mr.broderick wrote: »

July Halifax figures show month on month fall of 1.7%. This is less than June 1.9% and May 2.5%. Looks like the minor correction is slowing. With an interest rate cut looking likely next month i envisage even smaller falls in the next couple of months with small rises occuring before the end of the year.

It's possible but seems unlikely. More likely is that monthly figures are very volitile. It's why the Halifax compare 3 month averages.

Max_Headroom_3

And how are your buyers flooding back to buy after your "minor correction" going to fund it Brodders?

Banks aren't lending anything like the ridiculous amounts they were, nor are they likely to so where is the money going to come from?

mr.broderick

Max_Headroom wrote: »

And how are your buyers flooding back to buy after your "minor correction" going to fund it Brodders?

Banks aren't lending anything like the ridiculous amounts they were, nor are they likely to so where is the money going to come from?

I am not saying i want this to happen just think it will. See my other thread on 5 x income lending and you may be surprised sir.

Conrad

Some Bank chief was on Radio 5 today saying there will not be a return to 100% lending or very high mutiples, for some years. No more CDOs either as investors dont want to buy mortgages any more.
Sub prime lending made up a big proportion and has all but dissapeared apart from some very inaccesible high priced deals from the likes of F Nat.

For prices to rise we will need these large funding gaps to be filled somehow.

I am a little more optimistic though that the falls could cease next spring, but so much depends on sentiment. If people think prices are falling they hold off buying, which causes prices to fall and so on.

Just so you know I am still buying a place in the sun - mad eh! Although I worry, I seem to be a minority - Im in touch with many other buyers and they are all proceeding and not at all interested in all the gloom, so Im thinking what the heck, just soldier on.

Cannon_Fodder

Just love the "minor correction"...

The 90s crash was between -20% and -13% over 4-6 years, depending on Nationwide/Halifax stats used...

We have now got an -8.8% YoY (3 month average) or -11% annual MoM situation, IN JUST 12 MONTHS, and you think this is minor...

Credit crunch - first run on a bank in a hundred years, collapse of salary multiples, collapse of 100%+ mortgages, raging inflation to swallow any disposable income that might have been used for deposit/increased deposit, growing unemployment - not least from the building/estate agency industries, falling immigration to ease that ever-faithful demand, millions of unsold/unwanted flats,...etc

Presumably you have bought (or will in a couple of months) all the properties you can afford, as we hit bottom...

mr.broderick

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Just love the "minor correction"...

The 90s crash was between -20% and -13% over 4-6 years, depending on Nationwide/Halifax stats used...

We have now got an -8.8% YoY (3 month average) or -11% annual MoM situation, IN JUST 12 MONTHS, and you think this is minor...

Credit crunch - first run on a bank in a hundred years, collapse of salary multiples, collapse of 100%+ mortgages, raging inflation to swallow any disposable income that might have been used for deposit/increased deposit, growing unemployment - not least from the building/estate agency industries, falling immigration to ease that ever-faithful demand, millions of unsold/unwanted flats,...etc

Presumably you have bought (or will in a couple of months) all the properties you can afford, as we hit bottom...

Why would i buy all the properties that i could? Now is a good time to buy imho will relatively low rates and buyers in a strong bargaining position. I said this 6 months ago and still stand by it.

GDB2222

The June fall is equivalent to an annual compound rate of reduction of 18.6%. To regard that as 'good' is just soooo incredibly optimistic.....

mr.broderick

GDB2222 wrote: »

The June fall is equivalent to an annual compound rate of reduction of 18.6%. To regard that as 'good' is just soooo incredibly optimistic.....

Ok i'll start a thread in a bit when i get chance stating this.