Nationwide - July - 1.7% YOY -8.1%

mystic_trev

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/July_2008.pdf

baby_boomer

"Weakening economic conditions may have raised the prospect of interest rate cuts", suggests to Nationwide.

But a 35% rise in the gas price sure as hell adds to inflation which the Bank of England is mandated to control - with interest rate rises if necessary :eek: .

I was surprised at the continued high percentage of properties with loans of 90% or more in May 2008. [30% of loans were in this category.] These all look at the risk of negative equity as property prices in 2008 seem "set fair" en route to a 20% drop.

Generali

Back of envelope calculations suggest that we'll be looking at YoY falls of ~15% by October at which point the rate of annual price change should flatten out as we'll be comparing a falling month this year with a falling month last year. (Hope that makes sense).

Generali

PS As, according to the CML, the average FTB last year had a 10% deposit, the average FTB from 2007 is going to be in negative equity very soon.

Tassotti

A few more falling months and we will be 'officially' in a recession.

We are not at the moment but with thousands of job losses and the housing market coming dwn, we certainly are n the edge of a recession (a big one)

I just hope that the government sees that increasing interest rates will NOT help the situation out (but I doubt it..How many politicians actually understand finance)

Well if it all goes wrong, I'll just declare myself bankrupt and look for sympathy on the banrupt board....Don't think so!!!!!

TDS_2

It does. 15% over just one year - that's more than I imagined.

Good news for FTBs.

carolt

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7534052.stm

Generali

Tassotti wrote: »

A few more falling months and we will be 'officially' in a recession.

We are not at the moment but with thousands of job losses and the housing market coming dwn, we certainly are n the edge of a recession (a big one)

I just hope that the government sees that increasing interest rates will NOT help the situation out (but I doubt it..How many politicians actually understand finance)

Well if it all goes wrong, I'll just declare myself bankrupt and look for sympathy on the banrupt board....Don't think so!!!!!

A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of real (ie inflation adjusted) GDP falling and has nothing to do with the Nationwide housing index.

I don't think that the MPC will cut interest rates to save the housing market on the way down any more than they raised them to cool the housing market on the way up.

MissMoneypenny

Tassotti wrote: »

A few more falling months and we will be 'officially' in a recession.

We are not at the moment but with thousands of job losses and the housing market coming dwn, we certainly are n the edge of a recession (a big one)

I just hope that the government sees that increasing interest rates will NOT help the situation out (but I doubt it..How many politicians actually understand finance)

Well if it all goes wrong, I'll just declare myself bankrupt and look for sympathy on the banrupt board....Don't think so!!!!!

Will you need to have 25% equity in your buy to lets when you remortgage? Or is that 25% deposit requirement, just for new but to lets?

poppy10_2

Wow, this is major pwnage! Down 8.1% in a year, and accelerating. In the last crash the annual rate only reach -6.4%, and even that was only briefly.

baby_boomer

Standard & Poors predict house prices will fall by a FURTHER 17% by April 2009

"....A 17 per cent fall in prices would take the value of the average house to about £150,000, [25%] down from £199,600 in August last year, according to Halifax figures. S&P said that for every further percentage point decline in house prices, between 60,000 and 180,000 extra homeowners could fall into negative equity......"