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Latest 'Doom Mongers': The Washington Post

WTF?_2
Posts: 4,592 Forumite
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030_pf.html
This Recession, It's Just Beginning
By Steven Pearlstein
Friday, June 27, 2008; D01
So much for that second-half rebound.
Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.
It ain't gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
This thing's going down, fast and hard. Corporate bankruptcies, bond defaults, bank failures, hedge fund meltdowns and 6 percent unemployment. We're caught in one of those vicious, downward spirals that, once it gets going, is very hard to pull out of.
Everyone is getting in on this now......:D
This Recession, It's Just Beginning
By Steven Pearlstein
Friday, June 27, 2008; D01
So much for that second-half rebound.
Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.
It ain't gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
This thing's going down, fast and hard. Corporate bankruptcies, bond defaults, bank failures, hedge fund meltdowns and 6 percent unemployment. We're caught in one of those vicious, downward spirals that, once it gets going, is very hard to pull out of.
Everyone is getting in on this now......:D
--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.
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Comments
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Thanks for that.Turn your face to the sun and the shadows fall behind you.0
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This forum is beginning to depress me, I may stop visiting...Statistics are like a lampost to a drunken man...more for leaning on than for illumination
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This forum is beginning to depress me, I may stop visiting...
You can't prepare for the worst by burying your head in the sand;) Prepare for the worst, hope for the best:D...Oil is trading just under $144:eek:...£/$ £1.999 ...markets are ok so far though..Turn your face to the sun and the shadows fall behind you.0 -
posh*spice wrote: »Prepare for the worst
Whatever you do, don't start keeping rare breed chickens as a source of meat, otherwise you might need that rifle sooner than you think......... and then a good solicitor (until society breaks down) :eek:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/fashion-for-backgarden-poultry-attracts-chicken-rustlers-856900.htmlFreedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes.0 -
Lotus-eater wrote: »Not the Zombie's/bunkers/big guns again
Aww come on, that zombie hunters forum is awesome and you know it0 -
I've been morbidly drawn to this Wikipedia entry recently:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_great_depression
And I can't decide whether I'm trying to learn more about the past or prepare myself for the future.
I look at the image of the crowd outside New York's American Union Bank and reflect upon how similar it is to images of Northern Rock last year.
I read the recent news reports, posted by !!!!!!? and others, and reflect upon the similarities of the situations, the causes and the outcomes compared with 80 years ago.
I read about the boom period that preceded it (the "roaring twenties") and the war economy of the 1940s that followed. And, frankly, it makes me a little scared.
What is it they say about those who forget the lessons of history...?(!)
We live in uncertain times and suddenly owning my own home doesn't seem to matter quite that much any more.0 -
And I can't decide whether I'm trying to learn more about the past or prepare myself for the future.
On balance I'm a pessimist howver I find it useful in the face of uber pessimists to remind myself of a few notes from history;
The 1970s were far more tumultous with 3 days weeks, mass unemployment, rotting infrastructure, strikes and so on.
The uber pessimists at that time told us Korea, HK and Japan were taking all our jobs and the UK was due a certain death.
It didn't happen.
EVERY decade has it's uber pessimists as attested to with a glance through the newspepaers from any period you like to pick.
Every year for as long as I can rememeber there are many books with an uber pessimistic future in store for us. There are just as many optimistic theories on offer.
As ever the truth probably lies somewhere between the two.
Pessimism is a function of imprints in early life, often unintended. These imprints control the subconscious, and thus the conscious individual, although noone will ever recognise this in themselves, oh no, they will ALL claim to be uber realists.:T
I saw a study which showed every generation had it's crop of those that said "we're going to hell in a hand cart, mark thy words"
Yet that supposed bleak future was then inhabited by another pessimist who came to see the original pessimists 'hell' as thier own heaven which they then harked back to, but at the same time forwarned society TOMORROW was off to hell in said hand cart!
Human nature.
The new intelligent breed arising now will have the rare ability to genuinly assemble the facts merely as they are, not distiorted by thier subconscious. In the end all Humans will have this nature, but then the sun will go out:eek:0 -
The 1970s were far more tumultous with 3 days weeks, mass unemployment, rotting infrastructure, strikes and so on.
The uber pessimists at that time told us Korea, HK and Japan were taking all our jobs and the UK was due a certain death.
It didn't happen.
EVERY decade has it's uber pessimists as attested to with a glance through the newspepaers from any period you like to pick.
People lost their homes during the 1990s price crash? What would have happened had they also got a £25,000 loan secured on it along with £20,000+ of credit card debt and a couple of BTLs thrown in for good measure?
I'm not sure anyone can predict what the next couple of years will be like but I'm pretty sure it's going to be worse than most people think. I'm not predicting "Escape From New York" scenarios just yet(!) but I think it's going to be far worse this time than it was in the 1990s. As for the 1970s, I'm not old enough to remember but I'll take your word for it.0 -
I do appreciate that but the great depression did actually happen. I see nothing to suggest that current events will end happily ever after.
People lost their homes during the 1990s price crash? What would have happened had they also got a £25,000 loan secured on it along with £20,000+ of credit card debt and a couple of BTLs thrown in for good measure?
I'm not sure anyone can predict what the next couple of years will be like but I'm pretty sure it's going to be worse than most people think. I'm not predicting "Escape From New York" scenarios just yet(!) but I think it's going to be far worse this time than it was in the 1990s. As for the 1970s, I'm not old enough to remember but I'll take your word for it.
The unscientific bottom line is that there's a bust to follow every boom.
The bigger the boom, the bigger the corresponding bust.
We've had just about the biggest global boom ever. Simple intuition should tell us that the bust is going to be pretty catastrophic.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
I do appreciate that but the great depression did actually happen. I see nothing to suggest that current events will end happily ever after.
People lost their homes during the 1990s price crash? What would have happened had they also got a £25,000 loan secured on it along with £20,000+ of credit card debt and a couple of BTLs thrown in for good measure?
I'm not sure anyone can predict what the next couple of years will be like but I'm pretty sure it's going to be worse than most people think. I'm not predicting "Escape From New York" scenarios just yet(!) but I think it's going to be far worse this time than it was in the 1990s. As for the 1970s, I'm not old enough to remember but I'll take your word for it.
I agree this time could be worse as there is more debt as a proportion, however, according to the Beebs Evan Davies we also have a great deal more in assets, to include property equity than we ever did before (I think he reported there are 3 x more assets than debts).
Thinking of people around me, typically they have about 60% equity and small if any debts (I know this beacsue I have seen all the neighbours for mortgage advice! - cringey eh!).
My theory is that we are witnessing a big transference in wealth away from those that have not had the abaility to retain assets, over to those that already have more than thier fare share.
This stems from the fact council tenants declined as a species and home ownership grew, but the fact is a significant proportion are just not cut out for servicing debts nor retaining asets.
We could see another great depression but I think this is less likely than it was in the 1930s when the majority had little in the way of assets / equity to fall back on.0
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