House prices won't recover until 2015

Generali

amcluesent wrote: »

With peak oil, peak water and global migration, by 2020 "property rights" could be forgotten about and houses will need protecting by armed local militia. The police could easily lose control in England once unemployment hits 10,000,000 and riots have torched a dozen northern towns.

Why on earth would unemployment hit 10 million? That's a third of the UK working population.

ianmr65

Generali wrote: »

Why on earth would unemployment hit 10 million? That's a third of the UK working population.

When and if the fed's kenysian 'inflate your way out of trouble' experiment fails, and the commodities bubbles burst. When China, Japan and the soverign wealth funds, want there 3/4 trillion dollars back, and the west plunges into the biggest depression since the 1920's. Fueled by the ECB's hyper-inflation paranoia, and the BoE's impotence. Added to food & water wars in the equitorial, and tropical zones, as global warming causes years of crop failures, and mass migration out of theese zones. + the diminishing supply of oil, and increased demand for oil in china (15,000 new cars a DAY!!) which to be fair, is the only commodity that's actually in danger of running out...as opposed to being poorly distributed, or priced out of the poor's reach:

that scenario, is not at all far fetched.

Though I supect as London warms up and east anglia and the flat lands are flooded, that the north of the UK is going to be rather less effected than the south.

Expect a new hadrian's wall on the cheshire derbyshire borders!!

Unemployment, in the US, at the peak of the depression in the thirties was running at 25% - 30%.

EdInvestor

It would be a bit surprising if the UK banks gave up making profits from lending money against property for 8 years.

One or two, maybe.

meanmachine_2

I'd take anything this Nickell character says with a barrel load of salt.

The guy's an idiot. And the fact taxpayers support him makes my blood boil.

Pre-credit crunch he was predicting house prices would keep soaring to the moon.

Now he's saying the opposite.

Tool.

Generali

ianmr65 wrote: »

When and if the fed's kenysian 'inflate your way out of trouble' experiment fails, and the commodities bubbles burst. When China, Japan and the soverign wealth funds, want there 3/4 trillion dollars back, and the west plunges into the biggest depression since the 1920's. Fueled by the ECB's hyper-inflation paranoia, and the BoE's impotence. Added to food & water wars in the equitorial, and tropical zones, as global warming causes years of crop failures, and mass migration out of theese zones. + the diminishing supply of oil, and increased demand for oil in china (15,000 new cars a DAY!!) which to be fair, is the only commodity that's actually in danger of running out...as opposed to being poorly distributed, or priced out of the poor's reach:

that scenario, is not at all far fetched.

Though I supect as London warms up and east anglia and the flat lands are flooded, that the north of the UK is going to be rather less effected than the south.

Expect a new hadrian's wall on the cheshire derbyshire borders!!

Unemployment, in the US, at the peak of the depression in the thirties was running at 25% - 30%.

Me feeling is that this is incredibly unlikely. Possible but very unlikely.

Time will tell of course. I'd best buy a luger and a bag of krugerrands.

Turnbull2000

Why wait till 2015? 2010 is when the party starts again :j

Front page of Tyneside's News Guardian property supplement: "The next Property Boom - 2010". Informs readers that prices will fall 8% or so before soaring 20-30% between 2010-2012.

(this is from memory, article not available online. will try and post image soon)