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BRCI is a certainty at some point for me but not this year, likewise PEW, I'll wait until the windup date and see whether it votes to continue. I'm uneasy about the effect commercialisation of water in poor regions is having though in truth.
I don't see a surge in oil prices any time soon but who knows, the US shale industry is a dodgy financial proposition at the best of times and currently drowning in debt, the US oil boom is a mirage made possible by cheap money and imo it's going to collapse at some point with the clean up bill falling as always on the taxpaying public, and it will be huge.
I suspect that's in part the reason the Saudi's aren't rushing to close the tap, geopolitics trump all it seems, the regional tensions and economic warfare, after the US war mongers backed away from rolling in to Iran, playing no small part.
So no BRCI for me yet, I've got what's left of this years allowance scheduled for an EAT purchase mid January. I've exceeded my planned 12 purchases annually this year but still below the £150 maximum charge if I didn't trade at all (with CSD).
This portfolio is still in the construction stage.
The next two years ISA allowances may be the last full contributions I make to this portfolio but I'll have to see how finances pan out, by then I expect to be averaging somewhere around £350 a month if current dividends are maintained.
I've truly stopped trying to second guess the market or fret about what others are predicting, my instinct tells me we're in for a rough ride over the next few years but I really don't know how best to exploit that possibility or any other without risking doing far more harm than just sticking to the plan.
I'm trying to condition myself to think in terms of months and years, and ignore the days and weeks in between. I'll keep posting updates, warts and all, every few months for anyone mildly interested.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
It's interesting to see how it's going
I see a rocky few years too - I think, business as usual, we'd be in the middle of a bear market or large sell-off about now (or 2015), but markets seem to keep wanting to pump stimulus in, so it seems a little futile trying to second-guess anything
So I'm investing with more of a value-tilt now - building up what is clearly cheap so (whether it takes 1 year or 10 years) there's every opportunity for growth ... even in prolonged sideways markets
Useful resources for valuation and possible returns:
http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation?SortBy=Shiller_PE
http://www.researchaffiliates.com/AssetAllocation/Pages/Equities.aspx
At the moment I'm building up Emerging Markets and peripheral Europe (Italy, Spain, France), and taking a bit of a punt on Russia and Emerging Europe (which are exceptionally cheap, and we may look back on as a real buying opportunity)
And only holding equities and a small amount in P2P lending at the moment (apart from Russia just looking too cheap not to invest in, the best rule for me has always been never to invest in anything I'm not 100% certain about ... and things like commodities, I'm just not certain about)0 -
Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »...the best rule for me has always been never to invest in anything I'm not 100% certain about ... and things like commodities, I'm just not certain about...
The only 100% certainty I have is that compounding works, everything else is considerably less than that.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
I don't see a surge in oil prices any time soon but who knows, the US shale industry is a dodgy financial proposition at the best of times and currently drowning in debt, the US oil boom is a mirage made possible by cheap money and imo it's going to collapse at some point with the clean up bill falling as always on the taxpaying public, and it will be huge.
Indeed. BRCI's biggest energy holdings, Exxon and Chevron, are looking reasonable value and have dipped but not in the way oil prices have. So I'm finding it difficult to gauge BRCI, given big share price drops are not reflected in equivalent net asset value drops. Sentiment maybe. Don't know. The premium looks like it's disappearing though.
Given what happened with BRWM I'm slightly nervous about the commodities element of the trust, but I won't be selling out of BRWM (very long term purchase), so it perhaps makes sense to top-up commodities now with BRCI....0 -
Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »So I'm investing with more of a value-tilt now - building up what is clearly cheap so (whether it takes 1 year or 10 years) there's every opportunity for growth ... even in prolonged sideways markets
At the moment I'm building up Emerging Markets and peripheral Europe (Italy, Spain, France), and taking a bit of a punt on Russia and Emerging Europe (which are exceptionally cheap, and we may look back on as a real buying opportunity)
Sideways markets are obviously not as bad as downwards markets, and I'm just wary of catching that falling knife. That said, the gambler in me likes the contrarian approach, but I need to reign it in a little and buy in smaller proportions! That Barings Emerging Europe trust is looking mighty good for part of my ISA right now.0 -
Given what happened with BRWM I'm slightly nervous about the commodities element of the trust, but I won't be selling out of BRWM (very long term purchase), so it perhaps makes sense to top-up now.....
Yes I'm more than comfortable with sitting on BRWM's double digit negative gains at this stage, it makes the rebalancing seem so much more worthwhile. The kick in the guts is when the share price recovers spectacularly just before a scheduled purchase.
The only worry as an income play is whether the current BRWM dividend can be maintained at something close to it's current level.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
The only worry as an income play is whether the current BRWM dividend can be maintained at something close to it's current level.
Yes, that is a concern. Which is why although I'm still nowhere near my intended asset allocation (still buying), a BRCI purchase might be a semi-effective way to top-up the commodities element of the portfolio and have more assurance over future dividends. The problem being that BRCI is more a play on energy stocks than commodities, so it's not so straightforward.0 -
The only 100% certainty I have is that compounding works, everything else is considerably less than that.
It surprises many people to hear that 75% of cumulative returns from the markets since the 19th century would have come from dividend payments
About 70% of my holdings are good income payers (and it's also why I like Funding Circle for the 7-10% interest you seem able to get there)
Have you considered Woodford equity income? I bang on about it a lot, and see you're well covered with trusts like Edinburgh IT, with most the same top holdings, but I'm very positive on Woodford's new fund for both income and long-term growth, and it's behaved so far quite differently from funds like EDIN, with very good downside protection0 -
Sideways markets are obviously not as bad as downwards markets, and I'm just wary of catching that falling knife. That said, the gambler in me likes the contrarian approach, but I need to reign it in a little and buy in smaller proportions! That Barings Emerging Europe trust is looking mighty good for part of my ISA right now.
When I'm 100% confident in something, then I'll happily keep adding to a fund when it's falling (erasing that percentage loss) because of how it springs back
There aren't many I feel like that about, but Lazard Emerging Markets, Woodford and perhaps Neptune Euro Opps (just for its value tilt and long-term performance) are funds I'll be happy to add to as they fall
Lazard have some great market outlook papers
http://www.lazardnet.com/us/literature-and-research/outlook/
They're positive on Russia and Eastern Europe, but don't expect to see the upside for a couple of years ... I'd call myself cautious but certainly overweight Emerging Europe - and I'm buying a little bit in specialist Italian funds0 -
Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »It surprises many people to hear that 75% of cumulative returns from the markets since the 19th century would have come from dividend payments
About 70% of my holdings are good income payers (and it's also why I like Funding Circle for the 7-10% interest you seem able to get there)
Have you considered Woodford equity income? I bang on about it a lot, and see you're well covered with trusts like Edinburgh IT, with most the same top holdings, but I'm very positive on Woodford's new fund for both income and long-term growth, and it's behaved so far quite differently from funds like EDIN, with very good downside protection
I've taken the decision to make this portfolio IT only, reason being that IT long term should have an edge over open ended funds with managers having the ability to do what they see as best for the trust in a way fund managers can't, revenue reserves and gearing and make key decisions that maintain stability and a dividend through difficult times. Also the transparency is a big draw for me as it provides at least some limited choices over the buy and sell prices in a way that isn't possible with OEICs.
The downside is the possibility of higher volatility but I'm not fretting about that and fully expect some scary dips and turns along the way, the focus is on building a sustainable income stream, with the expectation that the valuation will eventually take care of itself over a substantial number of years.
Also the platform charge is currently free (effectively) with CSD for both ISA and GIA if only holding stocks and shares as opposed to funds, when making 6 trades each 6 months which fits well with the planned rebalancing frequency and account balance of this portfolio.
That said iWeb would be even cheaper but the features and service available from CSD are well worth the premium to me at this stage.
I do have some individual shares with iWeb that aren't maintained, beyond auto dividend reinvestment.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0
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