When is it time to sell?

i try to set targets - its not easy, but really i want to see 30%+ out of a stock. If the stock reaches that level, then i re-evaluate the situation and see if i consider if there are any future catalysts which might drive it higher still.

this is where to try and leave your emotion behind as greed makes us do silly things.

only you can answer when to sell. I think if you have concerns over the stock, then taking some off the table is probably the sensible thing to do.

If you want a Sell rule, it has to be consistent

E.g. I just bought AXA Framlington BioTech - on a huge run, looking horribly overvalued, could drop tmrw ... But on great momentum

But I bought with the intention of selling when it runs out of steam (which will probably be when US equities take a turn for the worse ... And I've been expecting that to be soon, but it could be years off)

If you can get a decent chart of your investment or sector, just sell when the price has dropped below the SMA 300 on your monthly rebalance date (for more volatile sectors, try SMA 150) ... Or you can use Relative Strength - sell when it dips below 50%

These sound like market timing methods, they're not - they're simple ways to stay invested in up-trends, and bail in anything else ... As there are usually regions/sectors in uptrend, you can just stay invested in these without having to worry about the difficulties of market timing and false signals ... Simple Moving Average - it's very simple, no guesswork, allows you to jump in and out of markets - limits any potential loss

racing_blue wrote: »

I have grappled with this (when to sell) for a long time.

Every trade has one buyer and one seller and both cannot be winners. It would be a zero sum game, except there is a cost associated with trading, so it is not even a zero sum game.

So I simply try not to sell if I can help it. In practice I limit myself to a maximum of 3 trades per quarter: two buys and one sell.

There is the saying "no-one ever went broke taking a profit" but in the past my problem was selling too readily when shares rose in value. For example, I bought shares in EasyJet in 2011 at 350p and sold them for 520p less than a year later. I was happy at the time but since have kicked myself several times over, they are currently trading at 1650p.

I've done the same in the past with shares...maybe its worth placing a stop loss of at least 10% and keep lifting it..In the case of EasyJet with a bit of luck the stop would have been 1300p before it was triggered.
Trouble is if the general market gets choppy or in a downward trend then your stock normally goes with it.

Earnings forecasts are worth keeping an eye on and the link below is very handy.

http://www.4-traders.com/EASYJET-PLC-10093880/consensus/

http://www.4-traders.com/EASYJET-PLC-10093880/revisions/

In the case of Tesco forecasts have been dire of late.

http://www.4-traders.com/TESCO-PLC-4000540/consensus/

http://www.4-traders.com/TESCO-PLC-4000540/revisions/

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

E.g. I just bought AXA Framlington BioTech - on a huge run, looking horribly overvalued, could drop tmrw ... But on great momentum

I've topped up my holding in it this week, current holding was showing +84% but the top up is a significant addition so that return will be hammered down by a fair chunk when the deal goes through. I see this as a safe long term investment barring short term volatility, likewise AXA's Global Tech. and Health which are on a more modest +21% & +42%

Together they're 15% of the total, each equally split in my otherwise tracker only portfolio. They're also far and away the best performers in the time I've held them although the trackers have been rebalanced a few times so their return % is stifled.