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A USA trade deal will take years to negotiate, that doesn't mean there would be no trade in the interim.
TTIP was expected to be concluded in 2014 and is currently expected to be in negotiations until at least 2019. Depending on which source you care to believe the negotiations to start the treaty negotiation started anywhere between 1992 and 2006.
International trade negotiations are never quick, so Obama's statement of 10 years could be seriously optimistic. US business interests would never allow a simple duplication of the myriad of existing trade agreements and resolutions - the EU effectively bans the import of US beef due to routine hormone and drug treatments of cattle, US farming lobbies are powerful and would insist that the UK would accept beef imports. To say nothing of the various other political lobbies.
Trump certainly knows where the UK is, he has substantial business interests here and reasons to regret them - he was stripped of an honorary degree and a "business ambassadorship" lost a court case against the Scottish Government over wind turbines. He may well be petty enough to enact revenge as President.
I have no problem with foreign politicians expressing a view on whether the UK should leave or remain in the EU, particularly if they present reasons for taking the position they do. I just wish British politicians would take the same approach, rather than soundbites and catchphrases.0 -
Sitting here now with the 'Nellie the Elephant' song going round in my head ''off she went with a trumpety trump, trump, trump, TRUMP!''
Maybe we'd be better off without the complications involved in a trade agreement with the USA??? If it's going to take that long to sort it out I'll likely be dead before it happens!!!0 -
Perhaps a British politician should sing it on Stateside TVMrsLurcherwalker wrote: »Sitting here now with the 'Nellie the Elephant' song going round in my head ''off she went with a trumpety trump, trump, trump, TRUMP!''
Maybe we'd be better off without the complications involved in a trade agreement with the USA??? If it's going to take that long to sort it out I'll likely be dead before it happens!!!
Trade will continue, its just that every shipment will be subject to extra delays and arguments about tariffs and duties. It may even be that existing (EU) tariffs and duties are applied in the interim, but there would be rapid changes, all to benefit US lobbies. The US takes a very different approach to animal husbandry and GMOs to Europe and the UK, and I doubt the UK has sufficient clout to resist substantial changes to the existing arrangements which remove restrictions on those products. As part of the EU, the TTIP negotiations have exempted the NHS from a number of provisions - outside the EU would we be able to negotiate the same or would signing the TTIP proposals as they stood in 2014 be the minimum basis for a trade deal with the US?
Frankly I want actual answers, not guesses without evidence to support them.0 -
MrsLurcherwalker wrote: »I don't know if Donald Trump actually knows that the UK exists, but I expect he'd be even more drastic and promise us far greater grief than NOT making a trade agreement!
But would he be doing that to keep us in, or to convince us to leave?0 -
BOTH!! or EITHER!!!0
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MrsLurcherwalker wrote: »I've been watching the news this morning and watched the interview with President Obama (for whom I have the utmost respect) a couple of times, he seems to be promising change rather than threatening it in regard to the UK staying or leaving the EU. While I appreciate that the USA IS a very large and powerful presence in all aspects of planetary life I feel his efforts would have been much better directed towards encouraging OUR politicians to tell us the TRUE facts over staying or leaving so we can make an informed choice come polling day. All I've seen so far is rhetoric and vitriol ridiculing the points of view made by the opposite camp and am no further forward in actually understanding the truth, if there is one!
It would appear that the USA place so little importance on the trade with the UK that they would sideline us for 10 years as 'punishment' for leaving the EU I believe he quoted 44% of trade from the EU was with the USA which by my meagre mathematical skills I do believe leaves 56% of the rest of the world for us to do business with if the American Nation no longer requires our produce. IF what the UK is and does is of little importance to the USA then perhaps we'd do much better in terms of the agreements reached if we traded with the rest of the world instead? Time alone will see the outcome of the referendum and time alone will tell if trade agreements are forthcoming won't it?
Obama is not speaking for the vast majority of Americans, I can assure. We view the UK as our closest ally and place high value on our nations long standing friendship. We can't wait until he is out of office! He has crammed his agenda down our throats for almost 8 years. If he can't get a law passed in congress, which he can't!, he will issue an executive order (like a king). He is being sued by 27 states at the moment for doing this.Overprepare, then go with the flow.
[Regina Brett]0 -
Thanks MILA, I quite like the Obamas but we're having quite enough difficulty understanding the pros and cons of staying or leaving the EU with NO straight answers from either the stay or leave lobbies here. The input of foreign powers, no matter how well meaning is not helping to clarify the matter and we brits really don't like veiled 'promises' or 'threats', makes us ALL run contra to what is being pushed for....crazy Brits that we are!0
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I have to say I reacted like a surly teenager - well you can just ..... off!
Back to rational analysis - trade deals always take forever but life doesn't stop until they are done.
The real danger to my mind is that the EU splinters with or without us and reverts to mutually hostile trading entities. Tariff wars beggared Europe AND the US in the 1930sIt doesn't matter if you are a glass half full or half empty sort of person. Keep it topped up! Cheers!0 -
MrsLurcherwalker wrote: »Thanks MILA, I quite like the Obamas but we're having quite enough difficulty understanding the pros and cons of staying or leaving the EU with NO straight answers from either the stay or leave lobbies here. The input of foreign powers, no matter how well meaning is not helping to clarify the matter and we brits really don't like veiled 'promises' or 'threats', makes us ALL run contra to what is being pushed for....crazy Brits that we are!
We have gotten veiled promises and threats also for the entire time he has been in office. I can't stand the way he has run his presidency. I'm so looking forward to him being out, but it reminds me of the time our little town wanted the school superintendent gone. The replacement, hired by the school board, was 100 times worse. I fear that's what we Americans are fixing to face when we have to vote for president in November! I have voted in every election since Nixon and am seriously wondering if I will have the stomach to pick the lesser of two horrible choices.:eek:
This is supposing it's either Clinton ((the snake)) or Trump ((are there words to even begin to describe this man?))
On another note, if Trump happens to win then TTIP would be in for a major set back. He views himself as a master business negotiator and would probably want the entire thing redone.Overprepare, then go with the flow.
[Regina Brett]0 -
Rock and a hard place all round honey? Politicians eh???0
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