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MSE News: Largest inflation jump in two and a half years
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# 1
MSE Helen
Old 13-11-2012, 10:10 AM
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Default MSE News: Largest inflation jump in two and a half years

"The Retail Prices Index measure of the rise in the cost of living rose to 3.2% in October from 2.6% in September..."

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Largest inflation jump in two and a half years




This thread is not in the 'discuss house prices and economy board' as that is only open to those logged into the forum so anyone coming from the news story may not be able to see it.

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# 2
pqrdef
Old 13-11-2012, 10:16 AM
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No surprise, considering how the September figure was massaged down, for obvious reasons..
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# 3
boongi
Old 13-11-2012, 10:56 AM
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taken from the news story...
Quote:
Rising inflation is likely to also fuel speculation the Bank of England will hold off from taking further action under its quantitative easing programme, which is the printing of money.
Official quantitative easing may be on hold but backdoor printing continues, and so inflation will accelerate ....
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100021222/the-bank-of-england-has-just-crossed-the-line-into-straight-government-financing/
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# 4
realaledrinker
Old 13-11-2012, 11:43 AM
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I am struggling to understand how the increase in university fees - which are not repaid for several years - caused a hike in last month's inflation figures???
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# 5
JimmyTheWig
Old 13-11-2012, 2:21 PM
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Originally Posted by realaledrinker View Post
I am struggling to understand how the increase in university fees - which are not repaid for several years - caused a hike in last month's inflation figures???
I guess you "pay" them now with a loan, then pay off the loan in several years time.

But I am struggling to understand why the increase in university fees, which has been known about for ages, has meant inflation has risen unexpectedly.
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# 6
zagfles
Old 13-11-2012, 2:32 PM
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Originally Posted by pqrdef View Post
No surprise, considering how the September figure was massaged down, for obvious reasons..
Oh dear, get out the tin-foil hats!

The Sept 2011 CPI figure was the highest this century! Was that "massaged up"
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# 7
LesU
Old 13-11-2012, 3:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zagfles View Post
Oh dear, get out the tin-foil hats!

The Sept 2011 CPI figure was the highest this century! Was that "massaged up"
So why did all of the energy companies choose to delay their large price increases until the month after September this year?

That was a lucky break for the government, pension funds etc etc.

Also, according to the BBC report, the SSE 9% increase in October wasn't included in October's inflation rate? Why not? Would it have made it too embarrassingly high?
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# 8
zagfles
Old 13-11-2012, 3:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LesU View Post
So why did all of the energy companies choose to delay their large price increases until the month after September this year?
Because people use more energy in October?

Quote:
That was a lucky break for the government, pension funds etc etc.
No it wasn't. It just means higher inflation in Sept 2013.

Quote:
Also, according to the BBC report, the SSE 9% increase in October wasn't included in October's inflation rate? Why not? Would it have made it too embarrassingly high?
Probably because it was after the date they calculate the rate. Or the rises hadn't affected peoples' bill then. Anyway what difference does it make? It just delays the rise till the next month. Or is there some vested interest in keeping the October figure low as well

If you have some credible evidence that the inflation figures are fiddled, other than rantings of tin-foil hat wearing loonies, post it.

And answer the question as to why the Sept 2011 CPI was the highest this century if there are vested interests at work. I don't remember the loonies suggesting the figures were fiddled then...
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# 9
CLAPTON
Old 13-11-2012, 6:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zagfles View Post
Oh dear, get out the tin-foil hats!

The Sept 2011 CPI figure was the highest this century! Was that "massaged up"

it's probably true that most months the CPI figure is the highest this century
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# 10
Milarky
Old 14-11-2012, 12:28 PM
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The point about 'one-off' changes (which is often not picked up by reporting) is by definition it is not repeated. This cuts both ways of course: when inflation appeared to 'dip' suddenly in May 2011 - at the very point when the first increase in rates since 2009 were widely expected to occur - the mpc chose to interpret that particular set of 'one month's figures' cautiously and did not begin to raise rates.

Think about it people - when the data is lumpy and you come across a lump (large change in a single month) do you base important decisions on just one piece of data - or do you look for a 'trend'*

*trends must take more than one month, by definition.
.....under construction....
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# 11
zagfles
Old 14-11-2012, 1:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Milarky View Post
The point about 'one-off' changes (which is often not picked up by reporting) is by definition it is not repeated. This cuts both ways of course: when inflation appeared to 'dip' suddenly in May 2011 - at the very point when the first increase in rates since 2009 were widely expected to occur - the mpc chose to interpret that particular set of 'one month's figures' cautiously and did not begin to raise rates.

Think about it people - when the data is lumpy and you come across a lump (large change in a single month) do you base important decisions on just one piece of data - or do you look for a 'trend'*

*trends must take more than one month, by definition.
But inflation figures (both RPI and CPI) don't just measure one month, they measure the change over the last 12 months. So a figure of 3.2% in Oct 2012 means prices have gone up 3.2% since Oct 2011. 2.6% in Sept 2012 means prices have gone up 2.6% since Sept 2011.

So any one-off increase in prices will remain in the figures for the next 12 months, so long term it makes no difference which month is chosen for any inflation-linked rise in benefits/pay/pension etc.
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# 12
Ripoff
Old 27-11-2012, 3:18 PM
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Default 38 yrs of RPI and suddenly it's wrong

Don't you think that its ODD that RPI was fine for 38yrs for updating pensions & benefits, which by the way is almost a working life time, well it was mine but then all of a sudden RPI was not good enough, or should I say TOO HIGH and this Coalition stuffed us all with the CPI Robbery index?

Which has been said was the highest at 5.2% but what has not been said is that the RPI was 5.6% at the same time. Thus, if pensions had been updated properly then the increase would have been 5.6% RPI NOT 5.2% CPI.

Then this September the CPI falls to 2.2% but one month later it rises to 2.7% and at the same time RPI rises to 3.2%.......So I also smell something very fishy indeed.....In fact no one will be able to TRUST either measure soon, (I doubt many trust either now anyway) , the CPI is not anywhere near pensioner inflation and RPI is about to be lowered to nearer the discredited CPI.

So I tend to agree with people who say the measures are being fiddled with. Because when I go shopping or put fuel in my tank or heaven forbid put the heating on, I dread the Bills. I know that my 2.2% private BTpension increase in April thanks to this Coalitions change from RPI to CPI will NOT cover my actual inflation.

So yes I suspect that these people are correct......The measures are being massaged DOWN.

THE CPI is the robbery index and the RPI is about to become the same.....The UK inflation measure especially for pensioners is NOT what this Government is leading everyone to be believe.
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# 13
zagfles
Old 27-11-2012, 4:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripoff View Post
Don't you think that its ODD that RPI was fine for 38yrs for updating pensions & benefits, which by the way is almost a working life time, well it was mine but then all of a sudden RPI was not good enough, or should I say TOO HIGH and this Coalition stuffed us all with the CPI Robbery index?
For a start most means benefits were not uprated with RPI under the previous govt, they used the ROSSI index which (like CPI) excludes most housing costs.

And the change to the basic state pension uprating will be better long term for pensioners, as the earnings link is restored. Short term it has resulted in a lower rise than had they used RPI, but long term wage inflation exceeds RPI. Had the previous govt used the "triple lock" uprating this govt has introduced, the basic state pension would be much higher now.

Quote:
Which has been said was the highest at 5.2% but what has not been said is that the RPI was 5.6% at the same time. Thus, if pensions had been updated properly then the increase would have been 5.6% RPI NOT 5.2% CPI.

Then this September the CPI falls to 2.2% but one month later it rises to 2.7% and at the same time RPI rises to 3.2%.......
Yes, exactly a year after an unusually high figure there is an unusually low figure. This is not co-incidence. If you can't see why then go away and try to understand what the figures mean.
Quote:
So I also smell something very fishy indeed.....In fact no one will be able to TRUST either measure soon, (I doubt many trust either now anyway) , the CPI is not anywhere near pensioner inflation and RPI is about to be lowered to nearer the discredited CPI.

So I tend to agree with people who say the measures are being fiddled with. Because when I go shopping or put fuel in my tank or heaven forbid put the heating on, I dread the Bills. I know that my 2.2% private BTpension increase in April thanks to this Coalitions change from RPI to CPI will NOT cover my actual inflation.
If private pension uprating has changed that was a decision by the scheme. I have a deferred private pension and their uprating is still RPI.

Quote:
So yes I suspect that these people are correct......The measures are being massaged DOWN.

THE CPI is the robbery index and the RPI is about to become the same.....The UK inflation measure especially for pensioners is NOT what this Government is leading everyone to be believe.
This is like the "vaccinations kill" internet conspiracy theory. Loads of ranting there's a conspiracy to poison us all and no evidence whatsoever.
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# 14
xylophone
Old 27-11-2012, 4:51 PM
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I have a deferred private pension and their uprating is still RPI.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19826770

Quote:
If private pension uprating has changed that was a decision by the scheme.
Not exactly.

http://www.pensionsadvisoryservice.o...20to%20cpi.pdf
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# 15
Ripoff
Old 07-12-2012, 4:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zagfles View Post

Yes, exactly a year after an unusually high figure there is an unusually low figure. This is not co-incidence. If you can't see why then go away and try to understand what the figures mean. If private pension uprating has changed that was a decision by the scheme. I have a deferred private pension and their uprating is still RPI.

This is like the "vaccinations kill" internet conspiracy theory. Loads of ranting there's a conspiracy to poison us all and no evidence whatsoever.
Not exactly. The evidence you need I believe is shown below, and many private pensions have been changed from RPI to CPI because they are linked to the Government Statutory uprating, such as BT, BA, Royal Mail & the public sector.

You are so far lucky to keep your RPI uprating as you can see from the figures below if your pension had been uprated by CPI over the past 15 years you would have lost 0.8% of it, which when compounded adds up to lots of lost income.

From 2010 to date you can see the variance and thus the loss caused by CPI which for anyone on an average Private Pension or Public Pension of 8000, equates to 478 lost in just three short years.

Regarding your RPI indexed pension, beware the ONS are about to change the way the RPI is calculated to bring it down nearer to the lesser CPI robbery index.

I concede on the State Pension and the Benefits uprating as you describe, but the 1% increase over 3 years as stated in the Autumn Statement, the variance could mean hundreds of pounds of lost benefits as inflation rises for already very poor people and the working poor in tax credits. This can only make the poor, poorer and the low paid workers worse off. The IFS say that 40% of the latest cuts are hitting the poor whilst only a tenth of the rich are effected!

SEPTEMBERS INFLATION RATES
Year RPI CPI Variance
1997 3.6 1.8 1.8 Labour Gvmt
1998 3.2 1.4 1.8 Labour Gvmt
1999 1.1 1.2 -0.1 Labour Gvmt
2000 3.3 1.0 2.3 Labour Gvmt
2001 1.7 1.3 0.4 Labour Gvmt
2002 1.7 1.0 0.7 Labour Gvmt
2003 2.8 1.4 1.4 Labour Gvmt
2004 3.1 1.1 2 Labour Gvmt
2005 2.7 2.5 0.2 Labour Gvmt
2006 3.6 2.4 1.2 Labour Gvmt
2007 3.9 1.8 2.1 Labour Gvmt
2008 5.0 5.2 -0.2 Labour Gvmt
2009 -1.4 1.1 -2.5 Labour Gvmt
2010 4.6 3.1 1.5 Coalition Gvmt
2011 5.6 5.2 0.4 Coalition Gvmt
2012 2.6 2.2 0.4 Coalition Gvmt

2.9% 2.1% 0.8%
Average inflation Over 15 years

Source data from the ONS

Last edited by Ripoff; 07-12-2012 at 4:14 PM.
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