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MSE News: Inflation down to 3% ahead of Budget

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Former_MSE_Archna
Former_MSE_Archna Posts: 1,903 Forumite
500 Posts
edited 23 March 2010 at 3:02PM in Debate House Prices & the Economy
This is the discussion thread for the following MSE News Story:

"Chancellor Alistair Darling gained a pre-Budget boost today after a sharper than expected fall in inflation in February ..."
Read the full story:
Inflation down to 3% ahead of Budget

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These threads have been merged to avoid duplication. Thanks to Really 2 for the original post.
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  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Looks like the oil lows are beginning to be ironed out.:cool:

    CPI was 3.5% YOY last month

    RPI was 3.7% YOY last month
  • lemonjelly
    lemonjelly Posts: 8,014 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    Personal experience suggests otherwise though...
    It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    lemonjelly wrote: »
    Personal experience suggests otherwise though...

    It's because you have not purchased another 50" LCD TV again this month. :)
  • lemonjelly
    lemonjelly Posts: 8,014 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    Really2 wrote: »
    It's because you have not purchased another 50" LCD TV again this month. :)

    Actually, fuel aside, I've purchased virtually nothing in the last month other than birthday/mothers day gifts.

    I definitely feel like I have less spare to spend, mainly owing to fuel costs.

    I must say also, there is little out there I'm wanting to buy at the mo too.
    It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
  • Olipro
    Olipro Posts: 717 Forumite
    I think most of this inflation has been due to the adjustment of VAT and the drop in exchange rates.

    the MPC minutes essentially confirmed this as they noted concern at the fact that the drop in the pound has done sod all for our trade balance.
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 23 March 2010 at 11:06AM
    lemonjelly wrote: »
    Actually, fuel aside, I've purchased virtually nothing in the last month other than birthday/mothers day gifts.

    I definitely feel like I have less spare to spend, mainly owing to fuel costs.

    I must say also, there is little out there I'm wanting to buy at the mo too.

    It's a good point, Should be spending some this month though as I need to look at the garden.

    TBH I have lowered my car costs (insurance and fuel) as I don't travel that far now and my last car was not sensible for doing low mileage in reality. So Fuel over the last month as kind of flown past me a bit. But I do see it in terms of price per liter even though I spend less.

    Be interesting to find what is leading the falls.
    edit.
    Ok falls are
    Price down
    Toys
    Computer games
    Gas (I presume this was a big one as most are down 10% YOY I believe)
  • jim83
    jim83 Posts: 153 Forumite
    For what it's worth, inflation indices actually fell last month and rose this month. From the headline figure you get the opposite impression.

    I've charted the MOM data:
    RPI; RPIX; CPI

    No sign of CPI dropping down to 2% any time soon.
  • mbga9pgf
    mbga9pgf Posts: 3,224 Forumite
    The forward annualised rise in CPI is 5.4%
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 23 March 2010 at 11:32AM
    mbga9pgf wrote: »
    The forward annualised rise in CPI is 5.4%

    But how much of that is down to VAT? It would be fairly odd to annualise it knowing their had been a 2.5% VAT increase at the start of the year.
    mktcpifeb10large.gif
    Looks to be dipping on cue.
  • jim83
    jim83 Posts: 153 Forumite
    mbga9pgf wrote: »
    The forward annualised rise in CPI is 5.4%

    I make it 5.5%, but it doesn't matter. The data is too noisy. Else you'd be obliged to point out that last month the forward annualised rate was -2.1%.

    CPI looks to have found a short-term level around 3%, RPI should rise again next month though.
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