We’d like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum.
This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are – or become – political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.
PLEASE READ BEFORE POSTING: Hello Forumites! In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non-MoneySaving matters are not permitted per the Forum rules. While we understand that mentioning house prices may sometimes be relevant to a user's specific MoneySaving situation, we ask that you please avoid veering into broad, general debates about the market, the economy and politics, as these can unfortunately lead to abusive or hateful behaviour. Threads that are found to have derailed into wider discussions may be removed. Users who repeatedly disregard this may have their Forum account banned. Please also avoid posting personally identifiable information, including links to your own online property listing which may reveal your address. Thank you for your understanding.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
The Forum now has a brand new text editor, adding a bunch of handy features to use when creating posts. Read more in our how-to guide
UK House Price futures
deemy2004
Posts: 6,201 Forumite
Okay here are the current house prices futures for the UK (IG Index). - Selling prices.
UK National -
Sept 04 162.5
Dec 04 159.9
March 05 158.6
June 05 154.1
Sept 05 148.2
Dec 05 145.2
Basically what the figures are saying is that the futures market is pricing in a fall between Sept 04 and Dec 05 of about 11%.
Now throw in the effect of trend i.e. trends tend to over-extend which sould suggest add on 5% = 16%, Through in that in a sellers market you can offer substantially less than the asking - thats another 4% - That suggests a 20% drop by next Decemeber in actual house prices !
If you want me to post a particular region, let me know and I'll do it.
Tulips anyone ?
UK National -
Sept 04 162.5
Dec 04 159.9
March 05 158.6
June 05 154.1
Sept 05 148.2
Dec 05 145.2
Basically what the figures are saying is that the futures market is pricing in a fall between Sept 04 and Dec 05 of about 11%.
Now throw in the effect of trend i.e. trends tend to over-extend which sould suggest add on 5% = 16%, Through in that in a sellers market you can offer substantially less than the asking - thats another 4% - That suggests a 20% drop by next Decemeber in actual house prices !
If you want me to post a particular region, let me know and I'll do it.
Tulips anyone ?
0
Comments
-
i was actually thinking about this recently and while i'm far from being an expert, my thinking is...
There's been a big boom in Buy to Let property, now with the current prices more people like myself are having to rent because the lack of 'affordable' housing which means it's less likely those buy to let properties will end on the market... which means we won't see much of a fall... if any
Maybe if there's a year of mass house building, but it's not going to happen, or people go on a mad spend and end up having there house being repo'd!0 -
Thats actually a really good find deemy. I'm pretty convinced by future markets as people are putting there money where there mouth is. I've read a really good book that puts forward these kind of future markets as good predictive models. It's by James Surowiecki and its called the wisdom of crowds. See: http://www.randomhouse.com/features/wisdomofcrowds/ for more info.
As an example Surowiecki cites the Iwoa Electronics Market which offers futures in the US presedential race and it's been found to be more accurate than straight polling.Named after my cat, picture coming shortly0 -
PS if you could post Scotland and specifically Edinburgh and Glasgow's that'd be great.
Thanks in advance.Named after my cat, picture coming shortly0 -
That's certainly very interesting. Not sure I agree with your ramping up the drop. For example aren't the figures quoted selling prices not asking prices? If so you can't add in a further cut based on lowered offers as that has already been included. Not convinced by your trend argument either.
However 11% is more than I have been predicting and I agree these things tend to be quite accurate. We'll just have to wait and see.0 -
PS if you could post Scotland and specifically Edinburgh and Glasgow's that'd be great.
Thanks in advance.
Scotland House Price Index -
Sept 04 99.9
Dec 04 99.6
March 05 100.5
June 05 99.4
Sept 05 97.1
Dec 05 95.6
So sideways into June 05, then down.0 -
Scotland House Price Index -
Sept 04 99.9
Dec 04 99.6
March 05 100.5
June 05 99.4
Sept 05 97.1
Dec 05 95.6
So sideways into June 05, then down.
Hi. How do I get these figures myself? Do i have to register as a buyer with IG Index?No reliance should be placed on the above! Absolutely none, do you hear?0 -
You have to become a client.
Open an account etc...0 -
Hi Deemy
i'd be interested in you posting South Yorkshire up - thanks 0 -
Are there any for SE17, se1 or se11 in London. I have just put in an offer on a property. £9000 below asking price, but needs work. Realestate agents are lowering figures by £5000 in these area, then they are going for at least about £5000 under that. One theory is that it is close to Christmas, and that by early next year the slow market will be a little better.
Don't know!
Gypsy0 -
Are there any for SE17, se1 or se11 in London. I have just put in an offer on a property. £9000 below asking price, but needs work. Realestate agents are lowering figures by £5000 in these area, then they are going for at least about £5000 under that. One theory is that it is close to Christmas, and that by early next year the slow market will be a little better.
Don't know!
Gypsy
They don't go down to that scale - regional.0
This discussion has been closed.
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 354K Banking & Borrowing
- 254.3K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 455.2K Spending & Discounts
- 247K Work, Benefits & Business
- 603.6K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 178.3K Life & Family
- 261.1K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16.1K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.7K Read-Only Boards