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Interest rates could drop to 1% - what's the point of risking money in savings?

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  • ianmr65
    ianmr65 Posts: 596 Forumite
    Ok the main reason that US and other central banks are droping intrest rates is to try to prevent a depression, or severe slump, where growth and GDP's plummet, and un-employement rockets.
    A period of rapid deflation, caused by a lack of demand for goods and services, which is looming, is a sure-fire indicator of a nightmare to come.
    As the princpel asset class Housing and property is rapidly deflating, and has been for a while - And as energy and food, are following suit. The value of companies, globally is dropping, now the miners, and energy companies are being hammered...There is not an asset class OTHER than gold which is rising in value.
    Your standard advice in this situation is to buy Goverment Gilts, and sit it out till the bottom, where you use your safe money to buy all the stock you can and become a billionaire, just like andrew carniege (him of the hall) did during the great depression.

    Step one in How to stop a depression and turn it into a bad recession is shore up the banking system. - we've sorta done that.
    step two is try to promote a reduction in the growth slump by making it easier for banks to lend to each other, and us, looser fiscal policies ect.

    Another issue is that euroland does not belive this is going to happen, and that the opposite to severe deflation - hyper-inflation is the arch enemy. This assumes that the state loses control of the currency, prints money like theres no tommorow, and so on (see zimbabew)...

    So the basic problem is that you can't really fight both. Either the stance is anti depression... Loose Fiscal policy, low intrest rates, increase in the money supply.
    Or Or anti hyper inflation - tight fiscal policy, higher intrest rates, reduction in the money supply.

    Another complicating factor is that we (the west) are in hock to the east, and china, The us national debt is currently $10 Trillion and rising.. what happens when they want their money back, is a serious elephant in the room no poliltitian is willing to address...

    ho hum...


    Now if you really want to get worried, I'd watch this http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00dzypr -On BBC 4 or iplayer - On the mathematical chaos of the ecomomic and climate systems, the impending tipping points...:eek: :eek: :eek:
  • movilogo
    movilogo Posts: 3,235 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Those who are against low BoE rate, never understand that to get interest on savings, some organizations need to invest money on business and then they pay customers savings interest from the profit of their businesses.

    High lending rate = less money circulating is business = less profit = less return on savings :mad:

    Banks can pay good interest on savings only on a rolling economy - not in a stagnant economy.

    :confused:
    Happiness is buying an item and then not checking its price after a month to discover it was reduced further.
  • ianmr65
    ianmr65 Posts: 596 Forumite
    RayWolfe wrote: »
    No one. :confused:


    Everyone with shares in a bank, or who's pension depends on fund managers with previously blue chip banking stocks, selling and buying at the right times, or anyone with annunity funds, which are stock market based...
    Bank employees laid off... i could go on...
  • jamie304
    jamie304 Posts: 109 Forumite
    The 3 year fixed rate ISA I took out in February at 6.1% is looking a better bet every day.

    I think savings rates will drop more in line with the base rate as credit eases towards the end of next year.
  • amcluesent
    amcluesent Posts: 9,425 Forumite
    Don't overlook that Clown's 'policy' is for scorched-earth to leave a worst case scenario for the incoming Tory government.

    So far he's managed to spend everything in the Treasury plus borrow ££ BILLIONS in various PFI wheezes and the recent nationalisation of the banks.

    He'd love to go out with 1% interest rates and let the Tories battle with an exchange rate crisis of £1=$1 and the inflation bubble for imported goods.

    AND he's leaving the country wrecked - no investment in roads to punish 'wicked' motorists, giving a sop to the 'greens' with no power stations build for a generation.

    Clown is an evil fool.
  • Primrose wrote: »
    Being retired, we rely heavily on the interest from our savings to top up our pensions. Interest rates falling to 1% would be a nightmare scenario.

    Im retired as well. Banks havent exactly put themselves out in paying good Interest over the last few years. So Interest on £100, would be a quid.. No thanks is my reply! With low Interest rates, I see Inflation soaring, and Capital will fall?

    So I think its worth the added risk in buying Shares :beer:
  • wkt54
    wkt54 Posts: 454 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 100 Posts Combo Breaker
    I renewed my 1 year Fixed Rate Bond with Nationwide on Wednesday.

    Would I be able to change it to 2 years?
  • dag_2
    dag_2 Posts: 793 Forumite
    If someone has such a high volume of saving that they can live of the interest, it would make far more sense for them to do something with it like buy a house as rental vehicle.
    Um ... er ... no ....

    Round where I live, even if you had enough cash to buy a house without a mortgage, the interest you'd get from having that money in a high-interest savings account is still far more than the rent you would have to pay to live in a rented house of roughly the same size. And that's even after tax is deducted from that interest. And, yes, even after that 20% house price crash that the newspapers say we're supposed to have had recently.

    So, given that that's the way it is right now, how do you suppose it's possible to "buy a house as rental vehicle"? Surely if you can pay your way from the interest on your savings, you'd want to keep it that way, wouldn't you? Why would that be a spur for anyone to blow their savings on something as worthless as, say, a house?

    And therein lies the problem. No-one wants to invest in property or businesses right now, because cash savings are better. Hence the need to devalue the currency by dropping interest rates. Mind you - there's a risk this could backfire, by getting people to invest in gold instead. Gold is not devalued quite as easily as currency.
    A period of rapid deflation, caused by a lack of demand for goods and services, which is looming, is a sure-fire indicator of a nightmare to come.
    To my way of thinking, the fact that house prices are plummeting is already a sign that we are experiencing a type of deflation. Correct me if I'm wrong anyone, but the only reason why the falling house prices are not considered to be "deflation" is because what we call "inflation" was only been measured on retail prices of consumer goods.

    Why on earth would you not want to include the cost of accommodation in your inflation measures? Call me a conspiracy theorist if you like, but I can only speculate that it's because we have wanted to kid ourselves that the property bubble thus created was not really a bubble at all. If houses were included in our inflation measure, then I think the way we talk about "inflation" would make a lot more sense.
    Another issue is that euroland does not belive this is going to happen, and that the opposite to severe deflation - hyper-inflation is the arch enemy. This assumes that the state loses control of the currency, prints money like theres no tommorow, and so on (see zimbabew)...
    True, I agree that deflation is a risk, but Iceland's problem has been more one of their currency collapsing rather than hardening.

    I think the bigger problem is the currency volatility. If we could be sure that deflation is the only problem we'll have, we could fix it. Similarly, if we could be sure that hyper-inflation will be the only problem, we could fix that too. But we can't be sure either way. Neither hyper-inflation nor deflation by itself would be as difficult to manage as currencies going up and down like yo-yos.

    I'm no economics expert, but I suspect that the currencies in which the largest number of transactions regularly take place in (such as the US dollar, and possibly to a lesser extent the Euro) are probably less volatile than currencies that don't make up quite such a share of the global economy. UK Sterling and the Japanese Yen are probably more stable than a lot of developing world currencies, but I don't think they're up there with the US dollar.

    But then - the US dollar isn't immune either. If the US dollar starts fluctuating about wildly, then it will drive more people towards gold. In the unlikely event that we find that there's absolutely no stability in any established currency system in the world at all, then I think we could see gold becoming the new de-facto currency for the entire globe - but right now, I think this is very unlikely.
    :p
  • wkt54 wrote: »
    I renewed my 1 year Fixed Rate Bond with Nationwide on Wednesday.

    Would I be able to change it to 2 years?
    I believe (but am happy to be corrected) that some banks or building societies offer a "cooling off period". You need to check Nationwide's Ts and Cs to see if you might be covered by that.
    "The trouble with quotations on the Internet is that you never know whether they are genuine" - Charles Dickens
  • Uncle_Ben wrote: »
    But now he's BACK

    To show you he can REALLY shake 'em down
    Isn't that a quote from Do you Love me by Brian Poole and the Tremeloes? You're showing your age!!
    "The trouble with quotations on the Internet is that you never know whether they are genuine" - Charles Dickens
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