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The 70% club
macaque_2
Posts: 2,439 Forumite
http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/articles/nicklouth/article.aspx?cp-documentid=10924988
A year ago I suggested that a house price correction in the region of 70% might be on the cards. People's reaction to this was ridicule and contempt. With each passing month however, more and more people have been joining the 70% club.
Whilst this is not particularly welcome for home owners, (and a catastrophy for heavily leveraged BTLs) it is good news for the country. High house prices have been socially divisive and damaged the long term stability of our economy.
A year ago I suggested that a house price correction in the region of 70% might be on the cards. People's reaction to this was ridicule and contempt. With each passing month however, more and more people have been joining the 70% club.
Whilst this is not particularly welcome for home owners, (and a catastrophy for heavily leveraged BTLs) it is good news for the country. High house prices have been socially divisive and damaged the long term stability of our economy.
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Comments
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I feel you will be on your own here, i dont think there is anyone else this mad
You do understand that you are predicting 70% average drops and you do understand the meaning of the word average
To keep it at 70%, some areas in the UK are going to need to fall a lot harder than 70%
So if Aberdeen falls by 20%, somewhere else is going to need to fall by 120% to get you back to 70% :rotfl:
You need a straitjacket;)0 -
http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/articles/nicklouth/article.aspx?cp-documentid=10924988
A year ago I suggested that a house price correction in the region of 70% might be on the cards. People's reaction to this was ridicule and contempt. With each passing month however, more and more people have been joining the 70% club.
Whilst this is not particularly welcome for home owners, (and a catastrophy for heavily leveraged BTLs) it is good news for the country. High house prices have been socially divisive and damaged the long term stability of our economy.
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Don't worry, if your struggling for numbers - im sure Brit will join your club.0 -
I think 70% reductions may be pushing it a bit. I would put my money on between 30 and 40% falls before it turns the corner.
Bear this in mind though. If the vast majority dropped by 71% and only a few pockets dropped by a more modest amount, average drops could still be around 70%.
Oops, I might have jinxed it now.0 -
stephen163 wrote: »I think 70% reductions may be pushing it a bit. I would put my money on between 30 and 40% falls before it turns the corner.
Bear this in mind though. If the vast majority dropped by 71% and only a few pockets dropped by a more modest amount, average drops could still be around 70%.
Oops, I might have jinxed it now.
All very well but Scotland as a whole is still showing positive growth (All be it by 0.1%)
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/936442
So to get to -70% from here is totally unrealistic and holds no water in my books:pThe figures from official body Registers of Scotland showed the average house price in Scotland from July to September rose slightly to £160,155 from £159,000 last year.
The average house price in the latest quarter was £160,155, compared with £155,705 in the previous quarter.0 -
I'm not sure about that, I do agree with all your points and a couple of the resident bulls have already responded, however 70% down is huge, I wouldn't bet a large amount of money on that but with recent events, anything as an outside chance of happening.
One thing I can see happening is a collapse down to 2001 levels, which is around 45-50%, this is the point when all the 'unsustainability' in prices kicked off. Since that time liar loans and the BTL ponzi scheme implemented by the likes of the Wilsons went into overdrive, this side of the market now is now dead on any scale that could prop up the market and so go the prices.0 -
Well you have 2 loony bins that are as mad as you are already:rotfl:
(I do not mean this as offensive, just in jest)0 -
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Can we start a 50% club instead? I think that's a realistic average as it takes us back to more affordable levels (though still not 'cheap').
Didn't someone posit 80% falls on here a while back?'Never keep up with Joneses. Drag them down to your level. It's cheaper.' Quentin Crisp0
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