We'd like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum... Read More »
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!
Markets - where next
srcandas
Posts: 1,241 Forumite
just a general discussion
The markets (in general) have been quite positive in the recent 3 months - ignoring the massive rises and falls as theoretical solutions to the debt crisis are offered and then shot down in flames. The exception being China.
Over a longer period, while sovereign debt has dominated the press, companies, and even banks, have been shoring up their defenses (stashing cash and reducing debt).
However last week we had major disputes over islands in Asia impacting trade and manufacturing; possible Romney election win driving us towards an Iran solution
; Syria; Spain in utter turmoil with its regions bust, as well as its central government, while facing deeper and deeper recession; South African strikes, and recessional data from here, there and everywhere.
Yet the markets seemed to remain positive.
So what next? Has the world got used to this new environment and decided 'to hell with it, lets get moving'? Or do you think a major downward market re-positioning, that many predicted 6 months ago, is still on the cards?
Must admit I'm still jumping into the Asia markets so I hope not the latter :beer:
The markets (in general) have been quite positive in the recent 3 months - ignoring the massive rises and falls as theoretical solutions to the debt crisis are offered and then shot down in flames. The exception being China.
Over a longer period, while sovereign debt has dominated the press, companies, and even banks, have been shoring up their defenses (stashing cash and reducing debt).
However last week we had major disputes over islands in Asia impacting trade and manufacturing; possible Romney election win driving us towards an Iran solution
; Syria; Spain in utter turmoil with its regions bust, as well as its central government, while facing deeper and deeper recession; South African strikes, and recessional data from here, there and everywhere.Yet the markets seemed to remain positive.
So what next? Has the world got used to this new environment and decided 'to hell with it, lets get moving'? Or do you think a major downward market re-positioning, that many predicted 6 months ago, is still on the cards?
Must admit I'm still jumping into the Asia markets so I hope not the latter :beer:
I believe past performance is a good guide to future performance :beer:
0
Comments
-
Only two types of people would attempt to answer your question - those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know!0
-
The markets (in general) have been quite positive in the recent 3 months
3 months? The last 12 or so months have been very good for those prepared to invest last summer.
I've now upped my cash allocation a little but it's still sub 10%.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
True, but there have been particular bursts of euphoria in Euroland and the USA coinciding with the recent stimulus packages.gadgetmind wrote: »3 months? The last 12 or so months have been very good for those prepared to invest last summer.
I've now upped my cash allocation a little but it's still sub 10%.0 -
Voyager2002 wrote: »True, but there have been particular bursts of euphoria in Euroland and the USA coinciding with the recent stimulus packages.
I'm mainly a tracker person, but I used some heavily discounted European ITs (JEO and HEFT) to benefit from to gains over the last six months but have now sold these and gone back to a fairly neutral weighting.
US shares have been my largest holding for the last 18 months, which has worked well.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »3 months? The last 12 or so months have been very good for those prepared to invest last summer.
I've now upped my cash allocation a little but it's still sub 10%.
Gadget very true but I mention the last three months because one sees the markets shrugging off the bad news and seeming to do there own thing. The previous 9 months they seemed to react to the hope of a European fix.
Of course we do seem to have an overload of bad or potential bad news at the moment. And that of course balanced by the considerable time companies have had to find new markets or adjust to the new order.
But I was just interested in the thoughts of active investors as to their level of confidence really. Of course the passive investors will just wait and see and good luck to them :beer:I believe past performance is a good guide to future performance :beer:0 -
But I was just interested in the thoughts of active investors as to their level of confidence really.
I'm cautiously optimistic. As you say, the markets started rolling with the punches back with the "Santa Rally" and the bad news now seems to hit a layer of teflon.
A lot of money is still on the sidelines in bonds and cash, and nothing dramatic will happen until that starts moving back into equities. Meanwhile, I'm looking for areas of value (Europe, Asian and financials right now IMO) but not going drastically overweight on anything.Of course the passive investors will just wait and see and good luck to them
I use an active asset allocation strategy on top of mostly passive vehicles but with some small active holdings for less efficient markets. In fact, my single largest holding (enough to buy an average home with enough left over to stick a BMW on the drive!) is in a fund that does exactly this, and I then roughly replicate that approach in the pots that I manage.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
hundreds of charts out there....but one to look at...
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/236718654;0 -
hundreds of charts out there....but one to look at...
It's interesting all the moving averages stuff but while many markets are way below where they were a few years back I wonder if the chartist theories are valid.
As gadget says there is plenty of money that could jump into the equity markets if the mood changed. But what would it take?
Obama reelected - surprise jobs growth; Syria negotiated peace with elections in 18 months; Iranian nuclear accident destroys all nuclear production; China negotiates agreements with Asian countries over all Island terrortories; Greece drachma launch a success; Spain breaks up without mass civil unrest; African water reserves much bigger than thought - countryside turns green; .........
well I'd take a few of those :beer:I believe past performance is a good guide to future performance :beer:0 -
As gadget says there is plenty of money that could jump into the equity markets if the mood changed. But what would it take?
History tells us that the last of the "play it safe" money finally bows to the inevitable and jumps into equities at the exact top of the market.
That so much money is *still* flooding into bonds tell us that they are also getting very toppy, but timing is (as always) difficult. I keep looking at the soaring capital and plummeting yields of my corporate bond etfs and am seriously considering starting to reallocate these come next year.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
If the USA adds jobs...and GDP growth is positive...then the markets should rise...
There seems to be a basic pattern looking at the three...
0
This discussion has been closed.
Confirm your email address to Create Threads and Reply
Categories
- All Categories
- 351.3K Banking & Borrowing
- 253.2K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
- 453.7K Spending & Discounts
- 244.2K Work, Benefits & Business
- 599.4K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
- 177.1K Life & Family
- 257.7K Travel & Transport
- 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
- 16.2K Discuss & Feedback
- 37.6K Read-Only Boards