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What do you expect the UK Q2 GDP % growth figure will be?
worldtraveller
Posts: 14,013 Forumite
The UK Q2 GDP growth figure (Preliminary Estimate Of GDP) is due to be released next Tuesday, 26th July.
What do you expect it to be?
IMHO, I think that it will probably show a very slight growth, maybe 0.1%, or just dipping into negative territory. OK, I'm calling 0% - +0.1%.
What do you expect it to be?
IMHO, I think that it will probably show a very slight growth, maybe 0.1%, or just dipping into negative territory. OK, I'm calling 0% - +0.1%.
There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...
What do you expect UK Q2 GDP Growth figure to be? 52 votes
OVER +1%
0%
0 votes
+0.8% - +1%
1%
1 vote
+0.5% - +0.7%
9%
5 votes
+0.2% - +0.4%
46%
24 votes
0% - +0.1%
25%
13 votes
-0.1% - -0.3%
3%
2 votes
-0.4% - -0.6%
0%
0 votes
-0.7% - -0.9%
0%
0 votes
OVER -1.0%
1%
1 vote
DON'T KNOW/DON'T CARE
11%
6 votes
0
Comments
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Now that would depend very much on whether you mean YoY or QoQ wouldn't it?0
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Doesn't really matter.
It's all spin and bullsh1t anyway."The problem with quotes on the internet is that you never know whether they are genuine or not" -
Albert Einstein0 -
Loughton_Monkey wrote: »Now that would depend very much on whether you mean YoY or QoQ wouldn't it?
As far as I know the ONS quarterly growth figure is always QoQ, so QoQ it is.There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
Don't know what the figure will be but I can predict the explanations: Wrong sort of wedding, too hot (spring), too wet (summer), too expensive (petrol)I think....0
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The best comp is Q2 2002:Don't know what the figure will be but I can predict the explanations: Wrong sort of wedding, too hot (spring), too wet (summer), too expensive (petrol)
http://www.moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2011/7/4/uk-q2-gdp-growth-of-03-would-be-strong.html
Q3 number will be of huge importance if Q2 is poor.
(personally expect a sluggish number. Osborne was an idiot to increase VAT, should have insisted on cuts in luxurious spending that hardly impacts the economy, e.g. foreign aid and breastfeeding coordinators)."The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." -- Frederic Bastiat, 1848.0 -
The best comp is Q2 2002:
http://www.moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2011/7/4/uk-q2-gdp-growth-of-03-would-be-strong.html
Q3 number will be of huge importance if Q2 is poor.
(personally expect a sluggish number. Osborne was an idiot to increase VAT, should have insisted on cuts in luxurious spending that hardly impacts the economy, e.g. foreign aid and breastfeeding coordinators).
agree on foreign aid, particularly as the likes of Germany spend a small proportion of GDP on it.
Why we needed an extra bank holiday was beyond me - whats wrong with having it on a saturday like most people.
Cutting breastfeeding coordinators (you do seem to love this area of spending) may or may not be a good idea, but why would it impact the economy any less than VAT increase ?
Surely the difference is that it impacts some individuals to a great extent rather than everyone by a small extent.
ps if there was evidence that babies that were breast fed were significantly less likely to be admitted to hospital in the first 6 months than babies that were bottle fed, would you agree that there might be a cost/benefit reason for encouraging breast feeding ?US housing: it's not a bubble - Moneyweek Dec 12, 20050 -
The best comp is Q2 2002:
http://www.moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2011/7/4/uk-q2-gdp-growth-of-03-would-be-strong.html
Q3 number will be of huge importance if Q2 is poor.
(personally expect a sluggish number. Osborne was an idiot to increase VAT, should have insisted on cuts in luxurious spending that hardly impacts the economy, e.g. foreign aid and breastfeeding coordinators).
Agree about VAT, it's one of those tax rises that'll end up being a false economy and bring in less than it would have done at 15 or 17.5%. Should be looking to cut this to stimulae spending.0 -
Agree about VAT, it's one of those tax rises that'll end up being a false economy and bring in less than it would have done at 15 or 17.5%. Should be looking to cut this to stimulae spending.
Who'd of thought that this board would be supporting Ed Balls :eek:
I think increasing VAT is amongst the least worst taxes to increase.
Would people really have wanted employment taxes to have been increased ?
In broad terms we have consumed more than we have earned over the last 10 year (up to 2008) and longer, why not tax consumption ?US housing: it's not a bubble - Moneyweek Dec 12, 20050 -
I wonder if Chancellors of the Exchequer should swap jobs with Football Managers?
That way, Beckham and the lads would have been given the objective purely of activity and passing the ball (GDP). Doesn't matter if you don't score, or let a few in the wrong end (Balance of Payments).
Nothing wrong with activity and passing the ball. Gives everyone a chance and 'feel good' factor. And more chance of scoring a goal, perhaps.
But while our 'goal difference' continues - as for the past 20 years or whatever - to be negative, is anyone surprised we continue to get lower and lower down the league?
Sick as a parrot!0 -
Kennyboy66 wrote: »I think increasing VAT is amongst the least worst taxes to increase.
Would people really have wanted employment taxes to have been increased ??
Yes. A small increase in business costs to go alongside all the other increases in business costs. So they have to work a little harder in a growing market to recoup it.
OR a tax on consumption which piled on top of all the other factors crashing demand means the economic growth crashes to a halt. Selling products to a crashed market much harder on business than paying a bit more tax on healthy trading.Kennyboy66 wrote: »In broad terms we have consumed more than we have earned over the last 10 year (up to 2008) and longer, why not tax consumption ?
Monty Python had the best solutions:
1. A Tax on all Foreigners living abroad
2. A Tax on Thingy. ("Thingy?" "yes, you know, thingy!")0
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