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Nobel Economist Sees A Roaring Recovery...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6142996/Nobel-economist-sees-a-roaring-recovery.htmlNobel economist Gary Becker finds himself the pin-up hero for libertarians around the world convinced that massive government response to the Great Contraction of 2008-2009 is not only unnecessary but almost certainly a threat to economic freedom as well.
While the banking crash no doubt had its frightening moments, the crisis has in his view been overstated to advance a sweeping collectivist agenda.
Stripped of drama, the US recession is following the pattern of typical downturns. It is no worse than 1973-1974, he says.
Unemployment, now 9.7pc, will peak at levels far below the post-War high of 10.8pc in the early 1980s.
"It's over. Forecasts of a Great Depression turned out to be wrong," he said.
Interesting read.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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Praise the lord.
HPI is coming to my rescue.
Now where did I put that credit card?"The problem with quotes on the internet is that you never know whether they are genuine or not" -
Albert Einstein0 -
Sorry but isn't this debt mountain still in place. Am I being stupid or something? All we have done is delay the problem with low interest rates and quantative easing, we haven't solved it at all.
Talk of a recovery is a joke till we at least payoff some of this debt rather than increase it futher.
For example the homebuy scheme. 100-125% mortgages, liar self cert mortgages and gift deposit manipulation fueled the housing bubble which exploded and prices crashed down. The govornment solution was to allow 100% mortgages on newbuilds at 2007 with tax payers funds. Now much of the newprice rises is devoted to these action. Now how sustainable are these rises now the govornment has dropped the funding for this as they can't afford it. All round the world leaders have used future money for stimulas packages today These stimulas packages can't last much longer especially with rapidly rissing govorment debt with other priorities and a war going on.
The game is over its time to take the pain and get onto recovery rather than delay it to after the next election as they are doing.:exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
Save our Savers
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Dr Becker's work on family structures has led him to hone in on demographic forces as the arbiters of economic destiny. Once a country's fertility falls below the "replacement" rate, it is almost impossible to reverse. Over time this really does lead to a slow slide into perma-slump.
"Every country in Europe is below replacement. It is really serious in Germany, Italy, Belgium, Spain, and Eastern Europe."
Yep. America will be alone as Europe lets Islam rule the roost by demographics not Jihad.0 -
amcluesent wrote: »
"Every country in Europe is below replacement. It is really serious in Germany, Italy, Belgium, Spain, and Eastern Europe."
.
The UK is solving it's population replacement problem with immigration, and also a currently rising birthrate.
UK population increased by 408,000 people last year alone.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
hamish all this wishing is not going to alter the fact that once it all goes tits up,you are in trouble big time..buying a the VERY top of a bubble is not very clever..It is nice to see the value of your house going up'' Why ?
Unless you are planning to sell up and not live anywhere, I can;t see the advantage.
If you are planning to upsize the new house will cost more.
If you are planning to downsize your new house will cost more than it should
If you are trying to buy your first house its almost impossible.0 -
Becker is a hero of mine but he's setting up a strawman with the 'great depression aint happening' schtick, can't think of any economist who seriously posited the scenario.
USA != UK
While both countries are currently running a similar government spending deficit (12-13% of GDP) there is a huge difference in how the money is being spent. In the US the borrowing is being used to pay for a package of extra spending (let's ignore how much stimulus there is!) Here in the motherland most of the deficit is simply being used to maintain spending in place prior to the recession. While the Yanks can draw down the 'stimulus' when things recover Blighty has to make serious cuts in public sector spending to put its books in order."The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." -- Frederic Bastiat, 1848.0 -
What we really need is somebody with Nobel prizes in physics and economics, then they can explain how dosh from The Magic Money Fairy and toxic debts just cancel each other out - a bit like matter/anti-matter maybe? (must admit here I don't have Nobel prizes in physics and/or economics, so just guessing).0
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Another example of the 'dumbing down' of Nobel Prizes :eek:
Back in our day it was much much harder to get one
'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
Another example of the 'dumbing down' of Nobel Prizes :eek:
Back in our day it was much much harder to get one
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Alright Grandad....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Saints preserve us! Libertarians now is it? I suppose libertarianism's all right if you like the serfdom that monopoly and oligarchy bring.
I wonder if the OP's aware that the only regime in the world today pursuing a libertarian agenda is..........
Col. Gadaffi's Libya? :eek:
I know the Scots like him, but to slavishly follow his politics seems a bit much.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:0
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