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how many REALLY think there'll be a crash rather than a stabilisation ?
Comments
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kingkano - you make some good points, and I agree that rents will rise in the event of a housing price crash. However my point is that at the moment rents are so far below equivalent mortgage payments.
For example, I am renting a house worth at least £200,000 for just £550/month. An interest only-mortgage (i.e. renting from the bank) on the same place would cost me at least £1000/month - even more if interest rates continue to rise.
So it will be a while before rents rise enough and house prices drop enough to make it worthwhile me buying.
Also:
Again, a big change from the 1980s to the current situation is the huge numbers of people buying more than one property - either for BTL or for second holiday homes. These are the people that will drop them like hot potatoes if prices crash.In your previous post point 2. Most people aren't interested in selling their home?? Sure they are glad its gone up in value and probably see it as a pension later, but where would you live after you sell it?poppy100 -
nollag2006 wrote: »HSBC have already increased their expected house price growth estimate for 2008. Far from a crash coming, house price growth seems to be stabilising in the 5 - 10% range.
As another poster pointed out, what I love about these HPC muppets, who have been peddling their "the sky is falling" message now for 10 years is that even on the very front page of the HPC website all the indicators point to further house price growth, but yet they refuse to acknowledge this ...
Muppets? How civil of you.
Putting aside the fact that HPC hasn't existed for 10 years - fundamentals are warped, salary multiples are out of historical sync, interest rates artificially low, salary growth in negative territory, sub-prime mortgages, national panic over quarter-point rate rises...
Continued stable growth in the 5-10% range? Seems there's muppets on both sides.Hi, we’ve had to remove your signature. If you’re not sure why please read the forum rules or email the forum team if you’re still unsure - MSE ForumTeam0 -
OK, a couple more:
4) There are huge numbers of BTL properties in the UK currently compared to the 1980s, so this will have a big effect
Yes, it will force those who rent to look elsewhere, either for another rental or into the Estate Agent's.
5) Rising interest rates combined with the ongoing credit crunch also mean that the chickens come home to roost for those who have been living merrily off borrowed money. A sharp increase in the number of repossessions ensues. Banks tend not to hold on to property for months and months waiting for the right buyer to come along - they price to sell, dumping the repossessed properties at below market value, depressing prices further for everyone else.
Agreed. More houses to be snapped up by BTL investors and FTBers.
6) Potential buyers look at all the above and wonder why they should buy now when they can get a bigger/better house for cheaper a few months down the line as prices continue to tumble. Therefore they keep their money in their pockets and continue renting (safe in the knowledge that renting is far cheaper than equivalent mortgage payments at current house prices). Thus demand plummets, supply soars...
Do they continue renting in the properties sold at 4)?
Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't. My money is on a crash (well, not money).
GGThere are 10 types of people in this world. Those who understand binary and those that don't.0 -
Few of the doom mongers have also considered the forecasted population rise, that will put additional pressure on house prices, and demand for rented accomodation.
There was a show on BBC recently that predicted the UK population will rise by over 10 million in the near future.
With interest rates nearing the top of their cycle, now that inflation is starting to come under control, I'd say that house prices will romp up again over the next few years.
If any of the crash junkies want a bit of a laugh have a look at this:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/predictions-archive.php
I always get a bit of a snigger out of it !!!
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Why cant we all accept that we need a crash and recession. The longer we attempt to put this off, the harder it'll be.
Lets get it out of the way, burn the dead wood and restart again. If you want booms you have to accept the bust. I dont want another lost decade like the 90's, 70's etc.0 -
Turnbull2000 wrote: »Seems there's muppets on both sides.
If there were some kind of muppet contest - MSE vs HPC - this site would win hands down.
Glorifying high HPI.
Resentment and abuse towards STR's.
People saying that BTL is still a good idea.
Saying that FTB's should get on the ladder asap before they miss out.
A denial that there are already drops in prices in many areas.
A simplistic mindset that high IR's are bad, low ones are good.
Thinking that Gordon Brown wont let a crash happen.
A belief that our economic situation was worse before the last crash.
To name a few of the stupid opinions I've seen here. I can't believe how bullish some of the people on this forum are! Maybe there are a lot of estate agents here? The irony is that the site is called moneysavingexpert, not moneypi5singawayexpert.0 -
nollag2006 wrote: »doom mongers
This is my point! 'Doom mongers'?? So essentially, you are implying that out of control HPI is a positive thing!
Are you the village idiot?0 -
Oh how I love to rile the HPC brigade !!!!
:j
Is it a bit too close to the truth for you dannyboycey?
Not to worry, there was a crash 15 years ago - I'm sure there's bound to be another in 15 years time.
In the mean time why not join all the other like minded whiners over on HPC, if you think that the debate on this site isn't going according to your liking ?
:money:
Bye now !!
We'll miss your insight and acerbic wit !!!0 -
Why cant we all accept that we need a crash and recession. The longer we attempt to put this off, the harder it'll be.
Lets get it out of the way, burn the dead wood and restart again. If you want booms you have to accept the bust. I dont want another lost decade like the 90's, 70's etc.
I agree with you Abaxas.
High property prices only make it harder to get on the property ladder and to move up the property ladder. If prices were low, people would be able to afford bigger and nicer properties, which is what most of us would like isn't it?
A point for all those people who have a mortgage and are looking to move up the ladder ...if prices dropped by 50%, not only would you not have to pay out so much to move up the ladder, but also your interest payments would be dramatically reduced too! (You would save thousands).
It seems like common sense has gone out of the window in this country and the EAs and mortgage lenders are reaping the benefits! It's about time we all start putting our foot down and face facts ...EAs and mortgage lenders are not our friends!
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dannyboycey wrote: »This is my point! 'Doom mongers'?? So essentially, you are implying that out of control HPI is a positive thing!
Are you the village idiot?
Seems many of these self-professed bulls often find the need to resort petty name-calling or using the classic (and somewhat ironic) 'doom-monger'.
I'm not entirely sure if this is becuase their arguments hold no substance, or they simply are idiots like you say. Perhaps it's both? :rotfl:Hi, we’ve had to remove your signature. If you’re not sure why please read the forum rules or email the forum team if you’re still unsure - MSE ForumTeam0
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