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HPI predictions for 2010
Comments
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3-8%nollag2006 wrote: »Wow !!
Now bears, repeat after me.....
HAMISH WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG. I SHOULD HAVE LISTENED.
:beer:
I may have to quote this post all year......:D“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
And if prices do dive, everyone else will instead.0
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Oi - I was about to reprise my 2009 thread and I find someone has got in there first.
Just bumped the 2009 thread so we can see who last year star predictors were:
Graham_Devon, HAMISH_MCTAVISH, Radsteral, Stang, bumpoowee, chucky, cubegame, littlebighorse
Can we also forecast quarters again?
House prices Q1 +1.5%, Q2 +1.5% Q3 +0.1%, Q4 -4%
CPI (Really don't have a clue) End Q1 2.9%, Q2 +3%, Q3 +3%, Q4 +4%
Growth Q1 +1%, Q2 +0.5%, Q3 -0.5%, Q4 -1%
BoE Base Q1 0.25%, Q2 0.25% Q3 0.25%, Q4 1.5%
Unemployment Q1 2.6m, Q2 2.7m, Q3 2.7m, Q4 2.9m
Yes I am a double dipper
nollag2006 wrote: »Time for you to vote on what you think house prices will do in 2010.
Now that the "crash" is over and house prices are starting to rise healthily, what do you think 2010 holds?I think....0 -
8-15%HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »I may have to quote this post all year......:D
Hope you do Hamish
Personally, given that the price wobbles in Q4, predicted by many didn't materialise, I think that the new year bodes well for house prices.
We may see some stagnation after the election, with the inevitable tax rises, but I'd say that most folks have factored these into their equations given the huge pre-warning0 -
8-15%Well, at the half year point it sure looks like the bulls are getting it right so far...
Just thought I'd allow the following deluded bears the opportunity to revise their prediction for the full year of falls between 3 and 10%:
CloudCuckooLand, JonnyBravo, Lennys_Shinpad, Mr Taxtastic, Mr.Brown, Niche, Sapphire, Thrugelmir, amcluesent, carolt, dosh, dougs, gary892, lucypucy, mbga9pgf, nearlynew, orangefender, stueyhants, treliac, zappahey
You are not looking too clever so far chaps. 0 -
nollag2006 wrote: »Well, at the half year point it sure looks like the bulls are getting it right so far...
Just thought I'd allow the following deluded bears the opportunity to revise their prediction for the full year of falls between 3 and 10%:
CloudCuckooLand, JonnyBravo, Lennys_Shinpad, Mr Taxtastic, Mr.Brown, Niche, Sapphire, Thrugelmir, amcluesent, carolt, dosh, dougs, gary892, lucypucy, mbga9pgf, nearlynew, orangefender, stueyhants, treliac, zappahey
You are not looking too clever so far chaps.
hmm... seems to me that so far the bulls have been less wrong than the bears but only just.
the newest numbers available, May Haliwide, say:
Halifax - down 1.1%
NW - up 3.5%
average - up 1.2%
almost exactly the same number [23] of people made a mistake by being more bullish than 'no real movement' than made a mistake by being more bearish than 'no real movement' [24].FACT.0 -
No real movement: +/- 2%
ahhh Mr F. Pig... can't be bothered with the bull vs bear argument but would much rather have a closer look at your questionable arithmatic...the_flying_pig wrote: »Halifax - down 1.1%
NW - up 3.5%
average - up 1.2%
how can it be an average of 1.2% if they have a different market share of market approvals... they account for about 35% of the market but they don't have a straight 50/50 split in mortgage approvals...0 -
-3 to -10%nollag2006 wrote: »Well, at the half year point it sure looks like the bulls are getting it right so far...
Just thought I'd allow the following deluded bears the opportunity to revise their prediction for the full year of falls between 3 and 10%:
CloudCuckooLand, JonnyBravo, Lennys_Shinpad, Mr Taxtastic, Mr.Brown, Niche, Sapphire, Thrugelmir, amcluesent, carolt, dosh, dougs, gary892, lucypucy, mbga9pgf, nearlynew, orangefender, stueyhants, treliac, zappahey
You are not looking too clever so far chaps.
Oh dear. Thank goodness I didn't give any 100% correct gaurantees.
BTW, I thought you asked opinions on house prices by year end.... so let's wait til then eh? I'm all for calling it early if the outcome is certain but I don't see it that way yet.
Oh ar $e..... I've just noticed I've gone for the same option as naerlynew....... ok I give in.....0 -
ahhh Mr F. Pig... can't be bothered with the bull vs bear argument but would much rather have a closer look at your questionable arithmatic...
how can it be an average of 1.2% if they have a different market share of market approvals... they account for about 35% of the market but they don't have a straight 50/50 split in mortgage approvals...
I absolutely agree that, if one of the two had a larger market share, the average should be calculated on a weighted basis. My simple average was only approximate. But I don't know which of Halifax and NW is bigger. Certainly I don't think that one is twice the size of the other or anything like that... and if NW was twice the size of H the weighted average would be almost exactly +2%, if the other way rouind it would be about +0.4%. Still, in both cases, just about within 'no real movement' territory.
The land registry data is better but not quite as new. I don't know whether the January figure refers to 1st Jan or 31st Jan but the most recent numbers are only 0.3% up from the Jan # [albeit quite a bit higher than the Dec 09 figure, 2.4% in fact].FACT.0 -
So, if your christmas tree catches fire tonight and burns down your house, what is its intrinsic value tmmrw then smart !!!!?
Immediately worth about £300,000 which is what the land it sits on is worth. About a year later (depending if it goes smoothly with the loss adjuster) also the forthcoming approx £175,000 rebuild cost plus the marriage value of the land and rebuild cost.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0
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