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Debate House Prices
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The Affordability scam explained
Comments
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I dont know where you get your figures from, but your 45% vs 70% (2007 vs 1990) figures look like total bollox when compared to the Nationwide FTB affordability index!
not disputing your point with Hamish - but have you seen the regional affordability data that makes up this chart? it's from your link.
there are a few areas that skew that average on that graph that make it look worse than it actually is.
look at Northern Ireland, the East Midlands for example are still about 20% from 2004 levels.
on the other hand - the affordability data for London seems to say it's 4% below the 2004 level0 -
not disputing your point with Hamish - but have you seen the regional affordability data that makes up this chart? it's from your link.
there are a few areas that skew that average on that graph that make it look worse than it actually is.
look at Northern Ireland, the East Midlands for example are still about 20% from 2004 levels.
on the other hand - the affordability data for London seems to say it's 4% below the 2004 level
I agree; my area (south west) hasnt seen such a ridiculous boom, but is still indicating long term overvalued. i Reckon a good 15% still to go, but getting towards neutral affordability certainly with the amount of unemployment that has hit the region.0 -
This has got ridiculous. All to prove what - that house prices are reasonable? When anyone without a vested interest knows that they are not. We dont need endless arguments with complex figures to prove the bleeding obvious. House prices are too high, and they will come down because people can't afford them.
Like they did in Switzerland and Hong Kong?0 -
Hey hamish, guess where this graph is going next?
Guess where prices are going bearing in mind most of the falls so far are down to lower rates?
I dont know where you get your figures from, but your 45% vs 70% (2007 vs 1990) figures look like total bollox when compared to the Nationwide FTB affordability index!
Figures are mortgage payments as a % of take home pay. You are, as I show below, talking complete and utter !!!!!! Hasnt a 40 year old got something better to do than argue with bears on the internet about home ownership?
Graph available here:
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm
Er, that seems to show mortgage payments at over 100% of take home pay!0 -
+1This has got ridiculous. All to prove what - that house prices are reasonable? When anyone without a vested interest knows that they are not. We dont need endless arguments with complex figures to prove the bleeding obvious. House prices are too high, and they will come down because people can't afford them.
Most of the older folk I know will tell you how much they paid for their house, tell you what it's worth now, then say how bad this is for youngsters and how immoral it all is. The last bit is important - they may be on the right side of the equation in the greatest arbitrary transfer of wealth since the war, but they know its wrong.
Oh, and another thing, this has two end results:
1) Inflation Up => Interest Rates Up => Repossession
2) Inflation and Interest Rates stay low => a hell of a lot of people's wages will go to paying the heavy burden of the mortgage (not eroded much by inflation) over its lifetime. That money will not be available to fuel economic growth. Say hello to an underperforming economy for the next 25 years. Great.0 -
JayScottGreenspan wrote: »+1
Most of the older folk I know will tell you how much they paid for their house, tell you what it's worth now, then say how bad this is for youngsters and how immoral it all is. The last bit is important - they may be on the right side of the equation in the greatest arbitrary transfer of wealth since the war, but they know its wrong.
Oh, and another thing, this has two end results:
1) Inflation Up => Interest Rates Up => Repossession
2) Inflation and Interest Rates stay low => a hell of a lot of people's wages will go to paying the heavy burden of the mortgage (not eroded much by inflation) over its lifetime. That money will not be available to fuel economic growth. Say hello to an underperforming economy for the next 25 years. Great.
Agreed, sort of, because there is a huge caveat which I'm going to illustrate with a personal example.
My parents: shocked at the prices of properties we are looking at, shocked to the point of scandalised, but then, also at risk of over estimating the worth of their own home. Why do I think this? Simply they want an annexe/cottage/similar near/adjacent to us or as part of a whole with us, but theywant to put half or less of the money from a house which has not all that much more than they want from the move. It doesn't add up.
Sinialr response (yhank to heaven without the moving in wth us thing) from DH's father, tells us the prices of places that he thinks would suit us in London are impossible, we point out what he got for my late other in laws flat (which she boaught as a FTB in the 60s in a roughly similar income bracket to dh)
I find the view changes from the angle looked at, unless one is extraordinarily strict with oneself.0
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