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Debate House Prices
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Grauniad: Prices could be 40% off peak by 2010
Comments
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baby_boomer wrote: »Independent - We've just had our "Wyle E Coyote moment"
That's when the guy runs over the cliff. There's nothing to support him. But he only starts to plummet after he looks down and realises this. The BofE has just looked down.
"....House prices now seem set to decline through 2010, only starting to recover in 2011 or maybe even 2012. That will further depress things. And as growth gradually resumes, much of it will be absorbed by the Government as it tries to curb its deficit and move back towards balance or eventually some sort of surplus. The combination of the Brown spending spree and the collapse in tax revenues will hang over the country for the best part of a decade. [Government is currently spending 10p for ever 8p coming in.] To be realistic, we have to accept that UK living standards will not rise much for perhaps five years...."
Hamish McRae thinks it could be like the 1950s.
"..what might a world of very low official interest rates (but very high budget deficits) feel like?.."
"...Official interest rates will be low but access to credit will be restricted and prices may well fall for a period. So people and companies with cash will be in a strong position vis-à-vis those without. They will obviously be able to buy good assets from distressed sellers but I think there will be a more subtle change than that in that anyone with cash will be hunting for opportunities that offer a better return than that available from the bank or the Government. But business opportunities will be limited by the general deflation..."
Great article - good find.
This is the problem, the government is borrowing so much that the growth that will get us out of recession is going to be strangled at birth. (I personally think they will try to print the deficit rather than borrow it though.)
Robbing Peter to pay Paul never works really.
It's definitely a good time to have cash - so glad I didn't get caught up in the bubble as I'm now in a much better position relatively speaking. However, I'd rather the whole economy was doing well.
Falling house prices, falling prices generally and stupidly low interest rates. If I hold onto my job, I think I could be living in a much nicer house than I ever thought possible soon. Too bad it was all made possible by the rest of the economy going to pieces but there was nothing I could do about that - you have to deal with the hand that's dealt you.--
Every pound less borrowed (to buy a house) is more than two pounds less to repay and more than three pounds less to earn, over the course of a typical mortgage.0 -
On the other hand, Liam Halligan in the Telegraph thinks the Bank has lost its marbles and has just unleashed inflation
Instead of cutting interest rates to get interbank lending going, he suggests a "fess up" convention, behind secure doors, of all the world banks to see where the bad debt and CDO skeletons are buried. Then, after a bit of blood letting, confidence between banks might be retored.0 -
We are pretty much on track for this forecast now.
Also PIZZAGIRL - you can read the report online!0 -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/14/housingmarket
No need to rush to get a bargain before the market recovers, if this guy is right.We are pretty much on track for this forecast now.
Also PIZZAGIRL - you can read the report online!
you were a little bit premature yesterday with that one Dervish :rotfl:
you need another 23% in 7 months - let me work that out for you... that's 3.29% per month each month... good luck hoping...0 -
Looks like the 'muppet' from the Mailograph was talking b*ll*x as well !!!!'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0
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To be fair, I failed to notice that the article had already been discussed and reposted it.
"Grauniad: Prices could be 40% down by 2010"
So with the release today from Nationwide
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/may_2009.pdf
And drop from peak circa 17% in 18 months, this would require a further 23% drop in the next 7 months.
Ok!!!!!!!!!:rolleyes::wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Have you run out of articles and are now into recycling, a strange feeling of deja vu.
A 7 month old article, fantastic.This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0 -
Try a three week old article and a major thread resuscitation :rolleyes:
The OP's article was released in October<LI class=byline>Kathryn Hopkins and Abhinav Ramnarayan <LI class=publication>guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 14 October 2008 16.53 BST
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/14/housingmarket:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0
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