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Gold is now a good time to buy in the dip?
Comments
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It is only possible to acheive a roll yield from a market in backwardation, there are very few markets in backwardation currently, and gold is rarely in it.Commodity futures have been excellect long-term investments. Most of the return from these comes from the roll-yield (basically a discount in pricing of long-term contacts to current spot price) rather than appreciation of spot prices. You can't get access to this return by just physically holding the commodity.Hope for the best.....Plan for the worst!
"Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown0 -
It would not be practical from a logistical point of view to hold physical commodities for the purpose of speculative products such as these, you can get away with it for precious metals to a certain extent because of value relative to size, but if you take as an example, crude oil, a single Nymex futures contract is for 1000 barrels, a popular ETF such as the United States Oil fund (USO) holds some 53,000 - 54,000 contracts even the Cushing facility in Oklahoma, the worlds largest can only hold about 100 million barrels I believe, then with other commodities some are perishablesabretoothtigger wrote: »The problem with this fund though is that it actually buys treasurys bonds and then future contracts so its not an actual holding. Bonds may crash and it wouldnt be much use then I'd think, so is there an actual fund of actual physical holdings not just goldHope for the best.....Plan for the worst!
"Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown0 -
Not actually sure what those charts are supposed to represent, the low in 2001 at 180 ish is correct, but in Feb '09 the CRB index bottomed out at 200. Those charts show it above 300, the last time the CRB was above 300 was in Oct '08.CRB is nowhere near its 20 year low, atleast not in nominal terms
http://www.mrci.com/client/crb.php
bottom chart
link gives a breakdown of whats in the index
Current Reuters CRB Components
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=CRB&time=8&freq=1
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=CRB&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=4&state=8&sid=2392733&style=320&time=20&freq=3&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=2501&mocktick=1Hope for the best.....Plan for the worst!
"Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can't make it worse." Unknown0
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