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One in seven homeowners face negative equity
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Premier - as I explained earlier, there are no 'facts' - yet - about the future. If you have proof to the contrary, please produce it. But as you now say you don't dispute the hypothesis, what exactly do you dispute? That they chose 20% (a pretty mild fall compared to many analysts' views)? Obviously - as you have a vested interest in prices rising, you'd like the report to focus on 5% falls - or on rises lol! - but they didn't.
S&P - unlike your good self - do not have a vested interest in talking up the market. They are simply trying to provide guidance for the future based on where they think house prices may well go.
As you said to me on another thread - if you have a problem with the premise of the thread, why not complain to the authors of the report? I didn't write it; nor did anyone from mse. But to complain it's not 'factual' is nonsense - the report makes no claims to state 'facts' about the future, as - for the umpteenth time - there are none.
They are just exploring a likely situation, and its likely consequences. You can disagree all you like with whether it's likely or not, but I know whose view I'll trust more - S&P's over an anonymous BTL landlord in a panic over falling prices, posting on an internet chat room! :rotfl:0 -
neverdespairgirl wrote: »As I understand the report, it is saying there is a big cluster of BTL places with about 80% mortgages. So that makes your places more unusual, I think?
Certainly, you don't seem to be at high risk, but others may be.
The ones at risk will be those who have put all their eggs in one basket.
Most BTL LLs will have residential property as part of a diversified portfolio.
It's no surprise they have high gearing on rental property as it minimises tax liabilty. When you can borrow on interest rates as low as 6.29%, it's easy to invest that and make even more money. There's even a fixed rate deposit account paying 7.1% (but you'd need to factor in tax liabilty on that interest)"Now to trolling as a concept. .... Personally, I've always found it a little sad that people choose to spend such a large proportion of their lives in this way but they do, and we have to deal with it." - MSE Forum Manager 6th July 20100 -
That's more like it, Premier - at least your argument makes sense now.
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Premier - as I explained earlier, there are no 'facts' - yet - about the future. If you have proof to the contrary, please produce it. But as you now say you don't dispute the hypothesis, what exactly do you dispute? That they chose 20% (a pretty mild fall compared to many analysts' views)? Obviously - as you have a vested interest in prices rising, you'd like the report to focus on 5% falls - or on rises lol! - but they didn't.
S&P - unlike your good self - do not have a vested interest in talking up the market. They are simply trying to provide guidance for the future based on where they think house prices may well go.
As you said to me on another thread - if you have a problem with the premise of the thread, why not complain to the authors of the report? I didn't write it; nor did anyone from mse. But to complain it's not 'factual' is nonsense - the report makes no claims to state 'facts' about the future, as - for the umpteenth time - there are none.
They are just exploring a likely situation, and its likely consequences. You can disagree all you like with whether it's likely or not, but I know whose view I'll trust more - S&P's over an anonymous BTL landlord in a panic over falling prices, posting on an internet chat room! :rotfl:
I've never said there are any facts about the future
What I have posted is a report based on a number of evidential factors that suggests prices will rise by 25% by 2013
I also agree with this report, even though all it is saying is "if prices fall by x%, then the amount of people in negative equity will be y."
Now what I'm looking for you to provide is any evidence to the contrary rather than just waffle and bluster.
There was a suggestion earlier by tomstickland that this S&P report was a " clear, fact based report." but he now agrees it is based on just conjecture.
The report by the National Housing Federation is based on a number of facts that leads to the suggestion of what will happen in the future. Why is someone like you with your university education finding this basic difference so difficult to comprehend. Or is it simply because you don't want to believe it. As I've said earlier, markets are not influenced by desires but simple supply & demand. It's that lack of supply and increasing demand that leads the National Housing Federation, at least in part, to come to the conclusion it has."Now to trolling as a concept. .... Personally, I've always found it a little sad that people choose to spend such a large proportion of their lives in this way but they do, and we have to deal with it." - MSE Forum Manager 6th July 20100 -
Hurray! :jThat's more like it, Premier - at least your argument makes sense now.
Feel free to post about any difficulties you encounter with your imminent house purchase, now you've seen the light!:rotfl:"Now to trolling as a concept. .... Personally, I've always found it a little sad that people choose to spend such a large proportion of their lives in this way but they do, and we have to deal with it." - MSE Forum Manager 6th July 20100 -
What I have posted is a report based on a number of evidential factors that suggests prices will rise by 25% by 2013
The report you have shown is flawed. It takes no account of lending conditions which is one of the most important factors determining price.
It also doesn't take into account that property prices were deeply overvalued before which even this so called shortage couldn't solely attribute to.
We have a massive housing bubble now, a 25% increase on that is pure lunacy. With banks reducing lending no property would be affordable.:huh::exclamatiScams - Shared Equity, Shared Ownership, Newbuy, Firstbuy and Help to Buy.
Save our Savers
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The report you have shown is flawed. It takes no account of lending conditions which is one of the most important factors determining price.
It also doesn't take into account that property prices were deeply overvalued before which even this so called shortage couldn't solely attribute to.
We have a massive housing bubble now, a 25% increase on that is pure lunacy. With banks reducing lending no property would be affordable.:huh:
I've copied your post to the thread relating to that report as it seems to relate only to that report. Hope you don't mind.
I've also responded to it there.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=12981821&postcount=79
Total thread from the beginning
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1058961"Now to trolling as a concept. .... Personally, I've always found it a little sad that people choose to spend such a large proportion of their lives in this way but they do, and we have to deal with it." - MSE Forum Manager 6th July 20100 -
My opinion has not changed at all since the start.Because you earlier said:
Now you agree it's based on conjecture. Glad you finally came round to what I said as early as post#2
You've just misunderstood what I said, so I've spent several posts trying to make it ever more clear to you what my opinion is.
The x-y graph of number of people versus price drops is factual.
The "we predict a 20% fall" thing is an estimate/conjecture/opinion and I said that right from the start.Happy chappy0 -
As I just said, my opinion has not changed. It is a "clear, fact based report", and it clearly says that they ESTIMATE that there will be falls of 20%. As I said in my first post, this is a clear statement. The factual part to which I have refered many times is the data set that makes up the main part of the report.There was a suggestion earlier by tomstickland that this S&P report was a " clear, fact based report." but he now agrees it is based on just conjecture.Happy chappy0 -
neverdespairgirl wrote: »As I understand the report, it is saying there is a big cluster of BTL places with about 80% mortgages. So that makes your places more unusual, I think?
Certainly, you don't seem to be at high risk, but others may be.
The real issue is that BTLs with 80% mortgages aren't making any money for the landlords and are actually costing money. In other words, outgoings > rent. With the properties depreciating in value, there's not much incentive for BTL landlords to stay in there. If they are all going to dump their properties on the market, that is really really scary. It strikes me that what they do is the big unknown. If a lot of them decide to sell or get repossessed, we could see a really large drop in house prices (30%, 40%, who knows?). On the other hand, if they stay in there and subsidise their BTLs from other income, things should not be so bad. It's quite worrying, though.
:eek:No reliance should be placed on the above! Absolutely none, do you hear?0
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