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  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    Whilst not good news for Aussie coal mining, and the export industry, this article is very promising illustrating the speed at which RE is competing against coal generation, or to be clearer, competing against plans for new coal generation.

    Coal report says Australian exports have peaked and are in 'terminal long-term decline'
    The report said export volumes from the port of Newcastle, the world’s largest coal export harbour, peaked in 2016 and have begun a permanent decline. The conclusion is based on long-term trade forecasts for thermal coal and an analysis of Asian energy markets, where investment in coal-fired power is slowing.
    “Imported thermal coal is now entirely uncompetitive, and possible new markets such as India and Vietnam are pursuing cheaper, more sustainable renewable energy options,” said Buckley, the institute’s director of energy finance studies.

    Buckley said renewables were now about half the cost of imported coal in India.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    A short but interesting theoretical look at 2050 leccy prices, plus demand and supply.

    [The assumption is that demand will rise 2/3rds with a shift to EV's and heat pumps, which is very similar to other such estimates I have seen that average demand will rise from 40GW to 72GW.]

    Summers could be entirely powered by clean energy by 2050


    One thought that occurred to me, based on this assumption:
    But because of higher demand and lower solar output in winter, gas power plants would still be needed to fill in the gaps between November and February.

    Their owners would need an additional payment during winter for being ready to provide backup power when needed, to make the economics work.

    is that if payments are being made to gas to stand by anyway, then instead, we may see those payments going as curtailment to RE, since overcapacity of ever cheaper RE, and the reduction in CO2 emissions from further reducing gas generation, may be a cheaper option.

    Doubt we'll be able to predict the actual choice till we know what price and level of deployment short term battery storage ends up at, and also what amount of longer term storage we settle on, such as hydrogen, or LAES etc etc.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • michaels
    michaels Posts: 28,008 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    A short but interesting theoretical look at 2050 leccy prices, plus demand and supply.

    [The assumption is that demand will rise 2/3rds with a shift to EV's and heat pumps, which is very similar to other such estimates I have seen that average demand will rise from 40GW to 72GW.]

    Summers could be entirely powered by clean energy by 2050


    One thought that occurred to me, based on this assumption:



    is that if payments are being made to gas to stand by anyway, then instead, we may see those payments going as curtailment to RE, since overcapacity of ever cheaper RE, and the reduction in CO2 emissions from further reducing gas generation, may be a cheaper option.

    Doubt we'll be able to predict the actual choice till we know what price and level of deployment short term battery storage ends up at, and also what amount of longer term storage we settle on, such as hydrogen, or LAES etc etc.

    I agree - just because there is a need for thermal turbines in winter doesn't mean they can't be burning fuel manufactured using excess capacity during sunny/windy periods rather than dino farts....
    I think....
  • NigeWick
    NigeWick Posts: 2,715 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    we may see those payments going as curtailment to RE, since overcapacity of ever cheaper RE, and the reduction in CO2 emissions from further reducing gas generation, may be a cheaper option.
    I like to believe that we'll have more than enough wind and battery capacity powering heat pumps for winters by 2050.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    From coal to pellets, made from waste material.

    Atlantis to convert Uskmouth coal-fired power station in Wales
    SIMEC Atlantis Energy has revealed plans to convert its Uskmouth Power Station in Wales, UK, from coal-fired to energy pellets.

    Using energy pellets that are produced from non-recyclable waste destined for landfill, the power station is expected to generate and export 220MW of baseload power to the grid.

    The energy pellets will be produced using technology developed by a joint venture (JV) between N+P Group (N+P) and SIMEC Energy called SIMEC Subcoal Fuels (SSF). Development will take place on land adjacent to the Uskmouth Power Station.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    This headline is capacity not generation, but regardless it's a very nice milestone to have reached:

    UK renewable energy capacity surpasses fossil fuels for first time
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • silverwhistle
    silverwhistle Posts: 3,791 Forumite
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    Not exactly green energy, but today's news regarding nuclear does suggest we should be putting more effort into renewables, given how scaleable they are:
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/08/toshiba-uk-nuclear-power-plant-project-nu-gen-cumbria
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    This news is so startling that I'm sure it can't be right ..... can it?

    Indiana Utility Says Replacing Coal With Renewables Will Save Customers $4 Billion
    In fact, the analysis that went into creating the IRP shows the plan will save NIPSCO customers more than $4 billion over the next 30 years. The plan will see the role of coal decrease from 65% today to 15% in 2023 before reaching zero in 2028. The company owns and operates the 1900 MW Schahfer coal generating station located in Wheatfield, Indiana. Schahfer is one of the dirtiest facilities in the US, spewing out more than 8 million tons of carbon dioxide a year. Its newest units were built in the 1980s.

    Coal - 65% to zero in 10 years - this is not Trump's week!
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    edited 9 November 2018 at 8:26AM
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    silverwhistle wrote: »
    Not exactly green energy, but today's news regarding nuclear does suggest we should be putting more effort into renewables, given how scaleable they are:
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/08/toshiba-uk-nuclear-power-plant-project-nu-gen-cumbria

    Here's a later article. In a strange way the collapse of the nuclear industry could be great news and act as a catalyst to end any dithering and just get on with RE - faster and cheaper and getting faster and cheaper too.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • pile-o-stone
    pile-o-stone Posts: 396 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    This news is so startling that I'm sure it can't be right ..... can it?

    Indiana Utility Says Replacing Coal With Renewables Will Save Customers $4 Billion



    Coal - 65% to zero in 10 years - this is not Trump's week!

    Plus you can't put a price on the health benefits of clean energy generation as opposed to burning things.
    5.18 kWp PV systems (3.68 E/W & 1.5 E).
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