What every reader here should know.

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  • sheramber
    sheramber Posts: 19,136 Forumite
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    I don't click on unexplained links.
  • ischofie1
    ischofie1 Posts: 215 Forumite
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    Me neither.
  • marlot
    marlot Posts: 4,935 Forumite
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    The link is fine (British Medical Journal) but the content isn't that helpful unless you're an actuary.

    The ONS site is rather more helpful: https://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-long-will-my-pension-need-to-last/
  • Alexland
    Alexland Posts: 9,653 Forumite
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    Eventually everyone dies.
  • crv1963
    crv1963 Posts: 1,372 Forumite
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    marlot wrote: »
    The link is fine (British Medical Journal) but the content isn't that helpful unless you're an actuary.

    The ONS site is rather more helpful: https://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-long-will-my-pension-need-to-last/



    The BMJ paper link from the OP is an academic study so a bit deep but in essence is trying to answer a question from the National Institute for Clinical Excellence(NICE)- is there a tool that can predict mortality in the over 65s? The aim is then to enable clinicians with the person affected to reduce/ manage those risks.


    For most of us (the general population) it, when read, seems to illustrate to me at least that should we have the misfortune to have one of the pre-existing "flags" or risks we should do whatever we can to reduce or self manage the risks. That can be to take medication prescribed or make lifestyle changes or whatever is needed as clearly risk cannot be completely eliminated.


    The second link is a general indicator of life expectancy and although very generalised it can be used to give a very rough estimate of life expectancy.


    It might be worth noting that even if you like me suffer from one of the flags/ risks it is possible to lead a full life and life expectancy if you make sensible adjustments. There is a real danger that someone can read things into research papers/ things read on the internet and end up living in fear!


    The biggest single UK risk factor for people is smoking, hard to stop (learnt from personal experience) but I really do think if I can stop then anyone can. And yes I still love the smell of fresh tobacco smoke and yet have to stay stopped!


    CRV
    CRV1963- Light bulb moment Sept 15- Planning the great escape- aka retirement!
  • speedyrite
    speedyrite Posts: 141 Forumite
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    The only thing I need to know is what my Statistics teacher taught me in 1973: "the probability of death is 1". Don't want to know, either precisely or vaguely, when I can expect to die! The simple fact that "one day" I will do so is, for me, more than enough to know about the matter...
  • mgdavid
    mgdavid Posts: 6,705 Forumite
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    speedyrite wrote: »
    The only thing I need to know is what my Statistics teacher taught me in 1973: "the probability of death is 1". Don't want to know, either precisely or vaguely, when I can expect to die! The simple fact that "one day" I will do so is, for me, more than enough to know about the matter...

    I think that's a very odd view, and hope for everyone else's wellbeing in retirement that it's an unusual view.
    The questions that get the best answers are the questions that give most detail....
  • bigadaj
    bigadaj Posts: 11,531 Forumite
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    Though soem might say that from a population and planetary perspective then increasing life expectancy generally, and certainly the over 65s, isn't necessarily a good thing.
  • talby
    talby Posts: 12 Forumite
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    I've found the tool over at riskprediction.org.uk ("Risk prediction in surgery") to be quite a good tool in the past - go to "Calculators and tools" and then "Life expectancy calculator". Sorry I can't post the direct link.

    It allows one to adjust for family history, exercise, BMI, smoking and drinking to give a "Risk adjusted life expectancy". Quite a sobering tool....
  • speedyrite
    speedyrite Posts: 141 Forumite
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    mgdavid wrote: »
    I think that's a very odd view

    Is it? So what? It's a point of view.
    mgdavid wrote: »
    and hope for everyone else's wellbeing in retirement that it's an unusual view.

    It's MY view though, expressed in free conversation, not to be interpreted as my desire to impose it on everybody else that it should be their compulsory view! And a view unrelated to my financial planning in retirement.
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