'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Another straw clutched.

This thread title has proven to be wrong. Average prices are going to end the year up by 10%.

For most people the effects of the stamp duty change in the £3m part of the market will impact them as much as high house prices on the moon.

fordcapri2000

wotsthat wrote: »

Another straw clutched.

This thread title has proven to be wrong. Average prices are going to end the year up by 10%.

For most people the effects of the stamp duty change in the £3m part of the market will impact them as much as high house prices on the moon.

Day after day after day after day after day after day.....................................................................................................................................

Bubble_and_Squeak

fordcapri2000 wrote: »

Day after day after day after day after day after day.....................................................................................................................................

alone on a hill
the man with the foolish grin

padington

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

alone on a hill
the man with the foolish grin

Because he bought the hill when it was very cheap.

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

Because he bought the hill when it was very cheap.

And got led along by the media and other mugs into the belief that because they were no longer making enough hills he would always be able to "get his price" :rotfl:

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

And got led along by the media and other mugs into the belief that because they were no longer making enough hills he would always be able to "get his price" :rotfl:

Not me kid. I bought a house because I needed one and didn't want to rent. Didn't try to time the market and ignored the naysayers (late nineties by the way) who told me it was a terrible time to buy. I've always been quite bearish/ cautious and bought something I could easily afford - it's cost me a fortune.

How would you categorise someone who purchased in the early nineties, found it difficult to cope, and then sold to rent (forever) in the late nineties? A mug, visionary or just wrong?

lalman

I used to be a bear for property but now I am a bull.

Fundamentally I feel the UK and western economies have too much debt and that interest rates can't go up... infact, if they try to raise them I feel the economy is so weak that it would likely to fall back into recession...

Coupled with that there is an excessive supply in the world primarily from the East that is exporting deflation to us and again this is something that would prevent the BOE from raising rates...

Saying that, with the BOE mandate for full employment now and 2% inflation... so I can see rates at these record lows for years more.

Economics 101 Interest rates low - asset prices are high... but I feel we will be in this environment for a lot longer and we won't fully recover... so prices of assets, inequality etc will just keep growing.

So I am bullish for bearish reasons...

I must put a caveat for this.. I think prices are driven by credit and these new rules that require higher deposits and more proof will slow things down...

Thrugelmir

lalman wrote: »

I used to be a bear for property but now I am a bull.

Fundamentally I feel the UK and western economies have too much debt and that interest rates can't go up... infact, if they try to raise them I feel the economy is so weak that it would likely to fall back into recession...

Coupled with that there is an excessive supply in the world primarily from the East that is exporting deflation to us and again this is something that would prevent the BOE from raising rates...

Saying that, with the BOE mandate for full employment now and 2% inflation... so I can see rates at these record lows for years more.

Economics 101 Interest rates low - asset prices are high... but I feel we will be in this environment for a lot longer and we won't fully recover... so prices of assets, inequality etc will just keep growing.

So I am bullish for bearish reasons...

I must put a caveat for this.. I think prices are driven by credit and these new rules that require higher deposits and more proof will slow things down...

The inherent danger with spin is that you start to believe it yourself. The scenarios you outline suggests that pressure on property prices will be downward in the longer term.

lalman

I understand your point Thrugelmir but another external long term factor is the ridiculous planning laws in our country that pushes the price up effectively.

I do think that credit growth and economic stability are the key areas... I think QE brings economic stability and eventuality credit growth through higher asset prices and banks more willing to lend considering the risks.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

Not me kid. I bought a house because I needed one and didn't want to rent. Didn't try to time the market and ignored the naysayers (late nineties by the way) who told me it was a terrible time to buy. I've always been quite bearish/ cautious and bought something I could easily afford - it's cost me a fortune.

How would you categorise someone who purchased in the early nineties, found it difficult to cope, and then sold to rent (forever) in the late nineties? A mug, visionary or just wrong?

I would categorise someone who claims to have bought in the 90`s and who claims to be winning, but who comes on here every day to defend HPI as a liar.