Britain 2023 - A Leviathan Cowed

vivatifosi

Interesting comment piece in the FT (not sure if online only). It looks at how government spending may look 10 years from now. See:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fa4aad86-de7d-11e2-b990-00144feab7de.html#axzz2Xbln9dN4

Suggests:
Child benefits and tax credits will be lost to higher earners
Means testing will remain the fashion
Voters will resent welfare spending as their share diminishes
NHS will survive because of ageing population. Spend will remain about 10%
Trend towards greater independence in schools
Local councils will sell off property portfolios and shrink services
Merging and shrinking of central government
Increased taxation of assets
Top rate of income tax will fall back to 40%
Armed forces focused on UK and less foreign intervention
State pension heading towards 70
No banks will be in public ownership
Toll roads will proliferate

Interesting article, well worth a read.

Generali

Thanks viva, that's a really interesting piece. Whether it's a solid prediction or a wish list remains to be seen.

I have a French friend staying at the moment and before the GFC etc happened we used to talk about politics and economics. At the time she was 18 and in the middle of the French political spectrum, i.e. quite left wing on the UK's spectrum.

I think she used to think I was a right wing nutter to say that France had to have less done by the Government and more done privately. Now she thinks Hollande is a lunatic, hell bent on destroying France through tax and spend Socialism.

vivatifosi

No worries Gen. The comments underneath are interesting too. For example, if you remove too many universal benefits you end up with greater tax avoidance and evasion as per Greece. Having said that, tax is hard to avoid when you pay VAT on what you buy and PAYE and NI on your earnings. For the majority of people anyway, which would then lead to even greater resentment of those who they see as able to play the system.

tomterm8

Ten years is a long time in economics. These predictions seem like just plotting the present trajectory into the future.

I really think that the next ten years will be momentous times, because we are at the verge of a series of industrial revolutions (genetics engineering, nanotechnology/ materials technology) which are now inevitable but which will probably be simmering away under the surface.

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

No worries Gen. The comments underneath are interesting too. For example, if you remove too many universal benefits you end up with greater tax avoidance and evasion as per Greece. Having said that, tax is hard to avoid when you pay VAT on what you buy and PAYE and NI on your earnings. For the majority of people anyway, which would then lead to even greater resentment of those who they see as able to play the system.

I think we are seeing the end of Socialism or at least a rapid shrinking of Government.

The promises made can't be paid and ultimately if something is unsustainable it can't be sustained.

Taxation is reaching its limits and the people paying the bills are getting fed up with the demands placed on them. The top 10% pay the taxes that pay the welfare cheques. If they won't pay then the system falls down.

purch

I know Britannia used to rule the waves, but calling us a "Sea Monster" is a bit mean :eek:

The idea that current Government size and spending is unsustainable will probably get universal agreement, whether or not anyone has the ability or bravery to rectify the situation is harder to see happening.

lvader

I think the best we are likely to see is a slow drop in spending in real terms over the next 10 years or so. What I can't quite understand is the NHS is making cuts so where is the surplus money going?

CLAPTON

do 'unsustainable' or 'sustainable actually have meanings any more or do they simply mean 'I approve' or I don't approve'?

Delara

Generali wrote: »

Thanks viva, that's a really interesting piece. Whether it's a solid prediction or a wish list remains to be seen.

I have a French friend staying at the moment and before the GFC etc happened we used to talk about politics and economics. At the time she was 18 and in the middle of the French political spectrum, i.e. quite left wing on the UK's spectrum.

I think she used to think I was a right wing nutter to say that France had to have less done by the Government and more done privately. Now she thinks Hollande is a lunatic, hell bent on destroying France through tax and spend Socialism.

In about 10 years there will be a new international monetary system. It could be cashless all digital like bitcoin, or backed by something.

lvader

Yes, what we really need to something far more volatile than real currencies.

bristol_pilot

Quite a lazy article IMO just extrapolating the current situation.