Where will inflation peak?

michaels

I remember in the Major years when there was an inflationary 'blip' eventually the commentators settled on '10% tops' being the likely outcome before it was brought back under control, the actual result was 10.9% (or similar numbers, the exact figures are unimportant).

And here we are 20 years later with inflation already at 3.7% (or much more if you like old-fashioned RPI) and the 'top' figure just having been revised up from 4% to '4-5%'

So my question for the board (and I guess this assumes that we will see a peak and then decline) is what will be the peak in inflation?

As the poll format is limited if you want earn extra points by predicting which month it will peak then please add a reply.

michaels

6% - pretty uncomfortable but we can manage it

I'm going for 6% peaking in December just before the VAT increase drops out

smeagold

Welcome to Zimbabwe, Hyperinflation - no end till we rebase the currency

Headed to zero:

lemonjelly

6% - pretty uncomfortable but we can manage it

first off michaels, this bits a joke right?:rotfl:

The only way to fix it is to give up monetary independence and join the Euro

I've gone the same as you, though I'd kinda like to add the caveat that it will peak between 6-7%.

smeagold

Welcome to Zimbabwe, Hyperinflation - no end till we rebase the currency

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." Albert Bartlett

inflation of annual 3% is not linear its hyperbolic as its 3% on top of last years price plus 3%. it compounds.

Inflation of 3% per year over a 10 year period results in a doubling of the original price. 3% per year may not seem much, 100% rise over 10 years reveals the true picture

example:

X= £100
10 years x 3% inflation X= £200
20 years later X = £400
30 years X = £800 etc

think of that chap with his rice on a chess board.

This is whats really going on.