The looming electricity crunch: Dark days ahead (Economist)

Wookster

A shortage of power-generation capacity could lead to blackouts across Britain—and a dangerous reliance on foreign gas

Corbis

SOUTH AFRICAN burglars pay close attention to electricity. A moratorium in the early 1990s stopped new power stations from being built, and by 2007 demand was overwhelming the country’s electricity grid. So Eskom, the national power company, began cutting supplies to specific suburbs for hours at a time. One side-effect of the rolling blackouts that afflicted Cape Town and Johannesburg was that they disabled the electric fences, spotlights and alarms that adorn richer people’s houses, making them easy pickings for thieves. At first the blackouts were announced in advance; later, aware of the risks, Eskom imposed them without notice. Fortunately for South Africans, the economic slump has trimmed demand (and a huge, rushed building programme boosted supply), but it will be 2013 before order is properly restored.

Britain is running short of power too—so quickly that some economists claim, only just tongue-in-cheek, that the economic slowdown is useful. “A recession is the best demand-reduction policy ever invented,” says Dieter Helm, an energy economist at Oxford University. Many power stations are due to close over the coming decade (see chart 1), and supplies are getting tight. The government reckons that, of a total of around 75GW in generating capacity, 20GW will disappear by 2015.


The private sector is less optimistic. EDF (a state-owned French firm that wants to build nuclear plants in Britain) puts the size of the hole at 32GW, and E.ON, a German competitor, reckons it will be 26GW. One survey of experts before the recession (conducted by Mitsui-Babcock, another power-station builder) found that three-quarters expected blackouts by the time of the London Olympics in 2012. When the BBC did a similar poll in 2008, the downturn had pushed the date back to 2015. “There’s a risk of blackouts somewhere between 2013 and 2016, depending on how fast the economy recovers,” says Mr Helm. “It may not happen,” says an engineer, “but we’d be lucky”.

The full article is here.

I wander what a power shortage would do for house prices.

Ideas on a postcard please?

ruggedtoast

I do know that in Sim City if you dont build enough power stations and put pylons everywhere you got blackouts in places. Then a little adviser would pop up and say you were doing a useless job and your popularity had plummeted.

I wonder if thats what is like for Gordon Brown?

lostinrates

Maybe it will increase population growth, eventually putting more strain on housing? People tend to get more amourous in the candle light:cool:

wageslave

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I do know that in Sim City if you dont build enough power stations and put pylons everywhere you got blackouts in places. Then a little adviser would pop up and say you were doing a useless job and your popularity had plummeted.

I wonder if thats what is like for Gordon Brown?

I really like how your mind works, rugged toast:j

lostinrates

FallenAngel9898 wrote: »

Trust you LIR :rotfl:.

trusting me gets unsuspecting boys in a lot of candle light :A

drc

My mum had a blackout in her area last week, lasting most of one day. It started at about 10am and finished at about 4.30pm. She lives in north London.

lostinrates

FallenAngel9898 wrote: »

God, I bet you were loads of fun when you were single..........er, not meaning that you're probably not now......er, I'll shut up.

I was loads of fun when I was single, yes. Now I'm only a little bit of fun at the weekends. (and power cuts.)

lostinrates

FallenAngel9898 wrote: »

How can a thread go off topic so quickly, Cleaver will be along shortly I think.:D

At least its not (yet) a slanging match :beer:

michaels

So something else we can thank Clown and his recession for - we have an extra few years before the blackouts start...

I notice all the energy companies have been asked to install smart meters as there is an obvious way to avoid blackouts - adjust prices to constrain demand - so expect soon not to be able to afford to boil a kettle if the wind isn't blowing...

And for LIR - it is one thing having a bit of romantic candle light but imagine if you had not had the chance to recharge your rabbit....

lostinrates

michaels wrote: »

And for LIR - it is one thing having a bit of romantic candle light but imagine if you had not had the chance to recharge your rabbit....

Dearest, the one negates the need for the other, surely

lostinrates

FallenAngel9898 wrote: »

I will use the word 'sheeple' as they have little or no idea of what that storm is going to bring.

man made fibres?