'No quick return' to housing boom

ad9898_3

The normally bullish RICS are sounding words of caution regarding 2010, they're not quite going as far as me when calling 2009 a 'fake year' propped up by massive government borrowing, but for them to say 'the outlook remains clouded' is a nod and a wink to the reality of the situation.

There is little chance of a quick return to a housing boom despite the possibility of UK prices rising over the course of the year, surveyors say.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has changed its forecast of a price fall of 10-15% this year amid a "considerable shift" in the market.
But it warned that tight credit, limited transactions and job losses could see prices slip back in 2010.
The outlook for the next year to 18 months remained "clouded", Rics said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8185515.stm

As far as 2009 is concerned, I think the government and the media need to be commended, with 'talk' and 'borrowing' they seem to have convinced a large portion of the public that the emporer has a great new outfit on again. Something that seemed unimagineable last winter.

Generali

ad9898 wrote: »

The normally bullish RICS are sounding words of caution regarding 2010, they're not quite going as far as me when calling 2009 a 'fake year' propped up by massive government borrowing, but for them to say 'the outlook remains clouded' is a nod and a wink to the reality of the situation.

I think this is a very fair thing for them to say.

I get annoyed at econometric predictions right now, mostly because they're twaddle. If someone says GDP will be up x.x% or unemployment will go to xx% ask them where in their model they put the near collapse of the international system of finance and trade and exactly how they back tested it.

"Econometrics? Mon cul!" as Louis XIV didn't say.

Heyman_2

I think they're just being realistic. No-one expects a quick return to 2007 levels, and I think everyone agrees that there is a lot of uncertainty over the next 18 months.

So it's not like this is controversial or anything.

Really2

Did we want a return to boom?

I thought it was better for all we did not go back to "boom" and "bust.

Generali

Really2 wrote: »

Did we want a return to boom?

I thought it was better for all we did not go back to "boom" and "bust.

I heard it's what that nice Mr Brown thinks.

StevieJ

Really2 wrote: »

Did we want a return to boom?

I thought it was better for all we did not go back to "boom" and "bust.

I think it is better for all if we accept that boom and bust is integrated into our economic system and look for ways to mitigate.

mizzbiz

Generali wrote: »

I heard it's what that nice Mr Brown thinks.

Yes, he was meaning perpetual boom though - not the thoughts of a well-reasoned economics expert.

Heyman_2

mizzbiz wrote: »

Yes, he was meaning perpetual boom though - not the thoughts of a well-reasoned economics expert.

I think he actually meant 'this is a great political soundbite and there's no way it'll come back and bite me in the a*se' :rolleyes:

Really2

StevieJ wrote: »

I think it is better for all if we accept that boom and bust is integrated into our economic system and look for ways to mitigate.

I agree, So even if we think of a "return to boom" it is likely to be around 7 years+ away.

Did any one think it was back to boom in the next yearish. No one I know thinks that.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Really2 wrote: »

I agree, So even if we think of a "return to boom" it is likely to be around 7 years+ away.

Did any one think it was back to boom in the next yearish. No one I know thinks that.

Really2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Reading the other story on the front is that a jail where you receive a wax everyday?:D