Survey sees rise in UK confidence

IveSeenTheLight

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8066076.stm


Survey sees rise in UK confidence


Businesses are seeing a light at the end of the tunnel

Confidence among business professionals has risen for the first time since the end of 2007, a survey indicates. The Institute of Chartered Accountants' index of business confidence rose to -28.2 at the end of March, from -45.3 at the end of the previous quarter.
"The underlying data suggests that companies have heeded warnings," said the Institute's's head Michael Izza.
More than 1,000 chartered accountants were surveyed across England and Wales.
Mr Izza said businesses were "managing the consequences of the global recession remarkably well". But he added: "While the change in outlook is encouraging, I still believe that difficult times lie ahead."
"I would urge businesses to not be complacent and be measured in any steps they take in response to an economic recovery."
Last week, the Office of National Statistics said the output of the UK economy fell by an unrevised 1.9% in the first three months of 2009 and household spending dropped 1.2%, the biggest decline since 1980.
The only sector of the economy making a positive contribution to growth was government spending.

IveSeenTheLight

Seems Germany also show optimism

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8066862.stm
German firms see optimism ahead


Firms in Germany, Europe's largest economy, are more confident now than they have been for six months, according to a key index. The Ifo index climbed for the second month in a row to 84.2 in May from a reading of 83.7 in April. The measure was worse than forecast, however.
The survey suggests "a gradual stabilisation of economic output at a low level" said the group's head.
Other economic data has also implied a more positive outlook recently.

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Earlier this month the Zew survey of investor sentiment rose to its highest level in almost three years in May, and Germany's purchasing managers' index climbed to its highest level in seven months.
Germany has been hit as the global slowdown has hit exports, a vital driver of its economy.
Some analysts say the Ifo survey, which reflects the views of 7,000 firms, implies the worst of the recession might be over.
"All in all, the survey results suggest that we are over the worst of this downturn," said Marco Bargel, an analyst at Postbank.
But not everyone is so positive.
"It can't be ruled out that we're seeing an expectations bubble, given the dimension of the current crisis"

IveSeenTheLight

And also Japan

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8062926.stm


Japan upgrades economic outlook


Japan expects exports to increase

Japan's central bank has upgraded its economic outlook, saying the worst of the recession might be over. The move came after the bank's two-day policy meeting, at which it opted to keep interest rates on hold at 0.1%.
While domestic demand is expected to remain low, the bank said exports, on which Japan is heavily reliant, were forecast to pick up.
Data on Thursday showed Japan's economy shrank in the first quarter at its fastest rate since records began.
Output contracted by 4% during the first three months of the year, or by 15.2% on an annual basis, as exports fell, according to official figures.
Recovering
"The pace of deterioration in the Japanese economy will likely moderate," the Bank of Japan said.
"Going forward, although domestic private demand is likely to continue to weaken, exports and production, after levelling out, are expected to start recovering and public investment to increase."
The latest outlook is more optimistic than the bank's forecast in April, when it said economic conditions had "deteriorated significantly".
While the bank did not provide new growth forecasts with numbers, it said it would expand the types of collateral on offer in order to encourage lending.

IveSeenTheLight

Another article showing signs of an economic recovery and an increase in business confidence
Surely there are clear sign of 'green shoots' now (should stimulate debate

from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8070253.stm


Pound strengthens to beyond $1.60





Pound vs dollar

The dollar has weakened against the pound, as fears over the UK economy eased putting the pound over $1.60 for the first time since November. One pound was worth $1.6016, up 0.3%, having traded at $1.6030 earlier.
This reverses the trend which saw the pound fall to $1.36 in January, its lowest in more than two decades.
Signs that the UK economy could be over the worst of the downturn have prompted investors to shift away from dollars, which are deemed a safer investment.
Markets reflected a more optimistic tone from business organisation the CBI.
It said although consumer services - a significant contributor to the UK economy - had contracted sharply, businesses were a lot less pessimistic than three months earlier.
Debt concerns
But there are concerns from some analysts that the UK economy still has unresolved problems that will prevent sterling from continually rising.
A recent warning from rating agency Standard & Poor's that it might downgrade its outlook for the UK economy caused a fall in sterling's value.
The warning came after data confirmed that new government borrowing has soared, to a record of almost £8.5bn in April.
"Increasing government debt can only lead to higher taxes and a subdued economy for years to come, which does not make for a prosperous future," said Philip Manduca, head of investment at ECU group.
But the dollar strengthened against the euro after economic figures revealed only a limited improvement in French business confidence.
One euro dropped to $1.3965.
Also sending the euro lower were comments from a European Central Bank policymaker indicating that it could cut interest rates further.

1echidna

Makes one wonder whether some of the doom and gloom merchants are politically motivated.

ess0two

News like this aint gonna be greeted in here,we wanna see more people loosing jobs,houses etc etc.

chucky

not an interesting thread this one ISTL

it's got to be about job losses, house prices dropping 70%, young couples being reposessed or firms going bankrupt if it's going to get any attention whatsoever for people to rejoice about.

mbga9pgf

ess0two wrote: »

News like this aint gonna be greeted in here,we wanna see more people loosing jobs,houses etc etc.

Not want. Its just patently bl00dy obvious that a recovery isnt around the corner.

ess0two

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Not want. Its just patently bl00dy obvious that a recovery isnt around the corner.

Maybe not,recovery either way who knows?sooner or later who knows,more to it than cheaper houses.

Mr_Mumble

The only sector of the economy making a positive contribution to growth was government spending.

:rotfl: When the government reduces GDP by 10% (aka spends within its means) then what? The bulls seem to be completely missing this. Will private enterprise burdened with higher taxes have absurdly high growth rates to make up for this drop in the 2-3 years required?

Sentiment is a lagging indicator and is helped enormously by the government spending like a drunken sailor. Germany and Japan will get a little bounce thanks to the need to build up inventories, the UK has a devalued currency so any exporter will benefit.

Graham_Devon

1echidna wrote: »

Makes one wonder whether some of the doom and gloom merchants are politically motivated.

Hardly need to try and spread doom and gloom to knock politics at the moment.