Recession will be very long lasting. Or maybe it's almost over

tomterm8

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Maybe that because the UK has no significant manufacturing trade data to report.
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Erm, what a load of nonsence. That's something everyone believes, but it's still completly wrong. Britain is still the sixth largest manufacturing economy in the world, everyone talks about the death of british industry but that is because we've shrunk in world terms from no 1 / 2 (depending on who you believe) over the last hundred odd years. But we had no right to be the amongst the largest manufacturer in the world, China has over a billion people, and the US has 400 million.

baileysbattlebus

Recession will be very long lasting. Or maybe it's almost over

My thoughts exactly - I haven't got a clue what will happen.

Thrugelmir

tomterm8 wrote: »

Erm, what a load of nonsence. That's something everyone believes, but it's still completly wrong. Britain is still the sixth largest manufacturing economy in the world, everyone talks about the death of british industry but that is because we've shrunk in world terms from no 1 / 2 (depending on who you believe) over the last hundred odd years. But we had no right to be the amongst the largest manufacturer in the world, China has over a billion people, and the US has 400 million.

Manufacturing accounts for around 20% of the UK economy and directly employs around 14% of the workforce.

That still leaves 80% of the economy in financial services, service industries and retail.

With the cutbacks in the motor industry, what remains of the manufacturing base will decline significantly in the near future.

Andrew64

We've had American and British politicians telling us for the last week or so that there's light at the end of the tunnel, green shoots of recovery, we've turned the corner etc. When you hear that - you know it's getting worse!:rolleyes:

Andrew64

I've just seen this article. The IMF is incredibly gloomy. Who do we believe - these 'civil servants' at the IMF - or the likes of Brown and Obama?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5166956/IMF-warns-over-parallels-to-Great-Depression.html

IMF warns over parallels to Great Depression

The International Monetary Fund has warned of "worrisome parallels" between the current global crisis and the Great Depression, despite the unprecedented steps already taken by central banks and governments worldwide.

surfsister

Economic history teaches us that a combination of tax cuts, running large fiscal deficits, substantial cuts in interests rates and more quantitative easing is likely, with a certain time lag, to have a substantial impact on demand in the economy and it may well be that the worst of the recession may well be behind us."

Funny that the newest member says 'the worst MAY be' 'and is likely' sounds like my sprog's business studies essays peppered full of hopes n dreams.

The sad thing is a very gullible public believe it all sitting reading their suns and drinking their lagers before the Simpsons!

I wonder what the oldest members says? probably same as most of those posted above, the truth.

sukysue

Let's face it from time immemorial there have been moanings and groanings about the state of the world and uk economy etc etc.I don't think I can ever remember genuine good news about the economy , when we were flush the inflation rates were high and the interests were high, when skint interest low and inflation low but was it ever any different? When we could borrow as much as we liked, the damn houses were still as unaffordable as they are now because they had hugely inflated prices, now they are more reasonable but you can't lend/borrow enough to buy one it's all the same result in the end isn't it? We are all just pawns (or should it be prawns more like ) (or in some cases plankton) in the sea of life isn't it all just a game the politicians play?

*MF*

This link:

http://www.greatrecession.info/2009/04/08/2008-2009-is-worse-than-1929-1930/

Takes you to a discussion on a comparison with now -v- the 1930's - with some good graphs and info.

Like all such discussions it's conclusions may be subjective even if based on objective facts - but what stands out for me is that Governments are willing to run much larger scale borrowing deficits than was the case in the '30's - and are doing so in the hope that will lessen or shorten the recession/depression.

But in doing so - it is our money and potentially that of our children/grandchildren that are being bet on this working.

For me it is all too soon to call - the race is being run, but the finishing line is still too distant to forecast the results.

tomterm8

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Manufacturing accounts for around 20% of the UK economy and directly employs around 14% of the workforce.

That still leaves 80% of the economy in financial services, service industries and retail.

With the cutbacks in the motor industry, what remains of the manufacturing base will decline significantly in the near future.

At the end of the day, we know financial services are in trouble, and manufacturing data is a prime leading indicator of retail sector trouble. In other words, the global manufacturing data suggests that in the immediate future the retail sector is going to be squeezed until the pips squeak.

penguine

Andrew64 wrote: »

I've just seen this article. The IMF is incredibly gloomy. Who do we believe - these 'civil servants' at the IMF - or the likes of Brown and Obama?

That's easy. Who has a vested interest in making the voting public feel better?