Recession will be very long lasting. Or maybe it's almost over

itsnever2lateisit?

mewbie wrote: »

This what I think. <everyone groans>. Recession is when things are falling, quarter on quarter. Nothing can keep falling for ever. So recession as strictly defined will end. Possibly soon. But recession in people's minds, as in things are bad, investments are poor, economy is failing, unemployment, etc. - well that 'recession' could carry on for some considerable time.

Good post. The drop in output does not effect too many immediately, and I am sure we are somewhere near the floor. But it is the fall out of all this that will take a long time to heal. As business resize to the new market all we will hear about is unemployment, which will continue to fuel the gloom. Personally I am watching the construction industry, as they are usually first in, and first out of recession.

MrDT

mewbie wrote: »

Oh.er. thanks. I was just re-reading it (I'm sad that way) and was thinking "I didn't really get that quite right". Especially because Cleaver (the mad bull) thanked me, and therefore I must not have got my bear point across clearly enough.

edit: Oh dear. All the bloody bulls are thanking me.

I'm a beary bear and I thanked you so don't worry

Here's my awesome ms paint representation of my brain thoughts based on what you were saying:

lostinrates

MrDT wrote: »

Here's my awesome ms paint representation of my brain thoughts based on what you were saying

It doesn'tmake sense.

bo_drinker

Construction were first in first out, it's a different game this time. Who knows where we will go as there is no credit and not for the foreseeable.

itsnever2lateisit?

lostinrates wrote: »

It doesn'tmake sense.

In that case expect Alistair Darling to use it;)

mewbie_2

MrDT wrote: »

I'm a beary bear...

Thanks. That's about it. I didn't think it was fair to re edit my post to make it more obvious, not after the bulls had thanked me.

Essentially - it stops crashing, but continues falling. Recovery nowhere in sight. People relieved, and some think it's a recovery, because it's not crashing as badly. But we're still in a pickle.

MrDT

lostinrates wrote: »

It doesn'tmake sense.

So very often the case.

pickles110564

itsnever2lateisit? wrote: »

Personally I am watching the construction industry, as they are usually first in, and first out of recession.

Actually it is the Port industry that is first in and first out.
Look for volumes steadily increasing and that will give you a good indication.
This is a tip so please keep it to yourself, volume has been slowly increasing since week 11.

tomterm8

Miles said: "Economic history teaches us that a combination of tax cuts, running large fiscal deficits, substantial cuts in interest rates and more quantitative easing is likely, with a certain time lag, to have a substantial impact on demand in the economy and it may well be that the worst of the recession may well be behind us. That's not a confident prediction but a judgement about what may be the case."

See. I've nicely reconsiled the two points of view. Miles is saying that eventually their policies will work, and the IMF is saying give it a couple of years.

P.s. that should get me a nice few thanks from the bears.

P.p.s I love it how the IMF is saying the recession might be a bit painful, while when you look at the historic Japan, Germany, and China's trade data it's like Scream 2: The sequal. Um, yeah, I'll give IMF the point, even if we start to recover tomorrow, on a global scale it's already about as bad as recessions get.

Thrugelmir

tomterm8 wrote: »

P.p.s I love it how the IMF is saying the recession might be a bit painful, while when you look at the historic Japan, Germany, and China's trade data it's like Scream 2: The sequal.

Maybe that because the UK has no significant manufacturing trade data to report.

UK plc is heavily depedendent upon Invisible earnings from financial services sector. What remains of the UK banking industry is currently going through the wringer and being contracted rapidly, so the jury is out at the moment. Maybe a remake of a Hammer House of Horrors movie would be more apt.