Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

NigeWick wrote: »

Thinking aloud:- What about eBay type feedback? Customers would have to use their bank account or plastic as with Uber and others now. Once they are not good customers, their details would likely be circulated and they would never get a ride again. Insurance would cover one lot of damage or clean up before getting more expensive. I am sure that insurance companies will iron out the details and their bean counters come up with an algorithm to suit all parties. I would be a customer as it will save £thousands.

Hi

Okay, maybe you could save £thousands by having access to an autonomous vehicle, but that's only possible if you don't have a vehicle yourself ... the issue here is that for the cost of access to that vehicle and the downside of hiring, waiting & the possibility that it'd be late, you might as well use public transport, taxi or private hire car as you can do today, so the savings are already available to people who live in urban areas ... yet they still have cars ..

Now, let's look at the same issue from another viewpoint, bottlenecking .... If 90% of the current number of vehicles on the road disappear due to usage efficiencies (as has been claimed), then availability bottlenecks will be created at particular times (school run, start work, end work) ... demand will simply outstrip supply - it logically has to ...

... yes there are argument that schools could stagger start times, but that also means that working parents would need added employment flexibility for parents & teachers, who may also be parents with their own requirements. This may be possible for many people with jobs which are flexible in nature ... but what about the shopworker who needs to be available to serve customers from a particular time -or- the factory worker, or the nuclear power station safety officer .. etc, etc ....

I believe that autonomous vehicles will have a place in the transport mix, but have very strong reservations as to the validity of many of the claims and ambitious views being pushed by what are no more than industries creating a marketplace for a technology product which currently doesn't exist which is being pushed as a solution to a problem which if you were to give some thought also doesn't exist - because the gap in the market is already filled by public transport, taxis & private hire vehicles.

The fact that the sector which the new technology needs to break into first already exists creates a competitive pressure, and this is very important ... once the initial 'awe' created by travelling in a driverless metal [STRIKE]coffin[/STRIKE] box wears off, then the price of that mode of transport will need to be fully competitive with the alternatives ... that means complex and expensive new vehicles operating at a cost to compete with highly capital depreciated second-life (/pre-owned) vehicles driven by someone content to earn little more than a minimum wage ... this is the conundrum to which I've seen no realistic solution offered.

EVs do not need to be autonomous, the two are separate, yet for some reason (& I have ideas why!) the two are being tied together by those involved in the market sector .... isn't the cloud technology thought process great ... until established!

HTH
Z

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But that's the big issue, and the disruption that Tony Seba is forecasting. Why don't we all just use taxi's today ... because of the cost. But what if the cost fell 90%*, and we didn't have to waste time or money parking at the other end, then would we still stick with our own cars?

*The 90% figure is a compilation of many factors that the autonomous car brings together:

1. Cost of the 'taxi'. With EV's expected to be good for 500,000 miles+, they will last 3x the mileage of an ICE, so that's a third of the cost.

2. Cost per mile. EV's v's petrol should be about 1/10th the cost taking fuel and maintenance into account.

3. The driver, removing the driver saves the single largest cost per mile of the taxi.

It all sounds semi-nuts, but when you look at all the pieces they do add up, and he may well have a point.

The true disruption though will start from the young when they save £5k or so by not learning to drive (£1k to pass test, £2k insurance, £2k cheap(ish) car). That'll buy em a lot of autonomous miles.

Hi

I really do appreciate & understand the arguments which are used ... but in addressing the above ....

1. Like many (/most?) areas of the country, there aren't many real taxis around here, it's almost exclusively private hire vehicles, most of which are highly depreciated ex-fleet vehicles not dedicated new black cabs ... so capital depreciation is already low ...

2. An EV with a driver also meets this criteria ... There's nothing wrong with EVs being used, it's the risk associated with forms of unrestricted autonomous transport being fully in control of passenger safety & lives ... high availability & safety critical systems still have a habit of failing which need either fully mirrored and fully redundant system backup to be immediately available - or manual override ...

3. Accepted, the driver is expensive, but then again the definition of 'expensive' to the customer (/passenger) can only be weighed against the journey cost per passenger mile ... without knowing what this cost would be for driverless vs driven taxis including all costs we simply can't tell.

On the adding-up side, I've yet to see mention of insurance after the initial and inevitable spate of fatalities ... then again, there's the loss of driver tax revenue to HM Treasury which would logically need to be replaced by some form of business based autonomous vehicle taxation ...

However, much of this is insignificant ... how many times do people just go out for a ride somewhere .. to the seaside, a park, somewhere remote with a stunning view, or simply wherever the road leads ... the car isn't just a method of transport from A to B, it's a status symbol, a provider of convenience, a pass-time, an entertainment box .....

Regarding the disruption through removing the cost of learning to drive etc - the same question needs to be asked as can be asked right now ... why do people living in heavily populated urban areas with access to plenty of readily available & frequent public transport on their doorstep learn to drive ?? ...

Henry Ford changed the world a century ago when the Model-T cut the public-transport and Hackney-Cab bonds for millions of people and it will take a considerable effort to turn the clock back 100 years and put the genie back in the bottle. Many people become emotionally connected to their cars to the point of naming them and becoming upset when they finally need to go ... that's one very large ingrained connection to believe will be severed within a short period (a decade-or-so ?), therefore there's a strong chance that the rate of change/acceptance will be lower than expected ...

Whichever way it goes, it'd take a pretty long time developing a flawless safety track record before I'd step into a random driverless [STRIKE]coffin[/STRIKE] vehicle without prior access to technical specs & the complete history (service, duty, accident etc) of that particular one :exclamati ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But what if the cost fell 90%*, and we didn't have to waste time or money parking at the other end, then would we still stick with our own cars?

4. One of the things young Master Seba mentioned was ride sharing to bring the cost down even further.

Take Z's school run, three or four youngsters living close to each other or up to a mile apart all going to the same school could be picked up by one autonomous vehicle. There'd be an app to sort out the the pick up/drop off points and no driver to concern the responsible person sending them.

And of course there will be cameras in the vehicle just in case of naughtiness or any challenges that may require attention.

Martyn1981 wrote: »

This is something that I've pondered too, as the issue is will the number of cars at peak time be reduced, and initially the answer is no.

I suggested car sharing on Navitron, but the thoughts were that people could do this today but don't. However I think there is a difference here as no co-ordination would be needed, or driving out of the way to collect/drop off a colleague.

Let's say you request a car, and opting for car-sharing gives you a discount regardless, so a £1 journey becomes 80p.

Then half way someone else requests a car sharing in the same direction, and a pick up on the route, so it stops for them, now you pay 40p for the first half of the journey and 20p for the second half, without any messing around.

I'm starting to change my mind as to Tony's idea. I no longer wonder if it's possible, but rather how it could not happen, when you have a tonne or more of reminder outside constantly pointing out the £1,000's or £10'000's you have 'wasted'.

I've got a horrible feeling that when I can afford/justify an EV, it'll be almost too late. I hope I don't miss out.

I like your thinking. Only one question remains for me: What will I do for my Summer road trip to France visiting vineyards?