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  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    Lazing on a sunny Sunday afternoon.

    OK, demand is lower on a Sunday, but once again nuclear, wind and PV have all individually been generating more GW's than gas and coal combined this afternoon. In fact FF generation has been below 5GW for several hours, something I'm not sure has happened before during the daytime.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • michaels
    michaels Posts: 28,008 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    Lazing on a sunny Sunday afternoon.

    OK, demand is lower on a Sunday, but once again nuclear, wind and PV have all individually been generating more GW's than gas and coal combined this afternoon. In fact FF generation has been below 5GW for several hours, something I'm not sure has happened before during the daytime.

    My only problem with gridwatch is that their dials have amber and then red indicators at the top of the production range and somehow seeing UK Nuclear output just now right in the 'Red zone' just doesn't feel right.....
    I think....
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    michaels wrote: »
    My only problem with gridwatch is that their dials have amber and then red indicators at the top of the production range and somehow seeing UK Nuclear output just now right in the 'Red zone' just doesn't feel right.....

    She'll nah take it kapin!

    Good point I did have a chuckle at that .... nuclear's in the red zone! TBF after the last few years of problems it's almost nice to see the nuclear fleet actually working hard.

    I think Germany has built a very good RE base, but I'm not sure their plans to shut down their nuclear fleet early makes sense. If you've spent the money on them, and they are safe(ish), then milk every last low CO2 watt out of em ..... then move on to 21st century technology like windmills. ;)

    Adding the 30% figure for embedded wind on to the main Gridwatch figure gives us some staggering amounts of generation for the summer.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • NigeWick
    NigeWick Posts: 2,715 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    I think Germany has built a very good RE base, but I'm not sure their plans to shut down their nuclear fleet early makes sense. If you've spent the money on them, and they are safe(ish), then milk every last low CO2 watt out of em
    I disagree. I'd push hard for 100% renewables and then get rid of nuclear, FF and wood pellet burning ASAP. I see our best option as local PV & battery storage with large scale solar, wind, hydro & wave generated electricity plus storage for industry and back up. Can you imagine a terrorist bomb in a nuclear plant or even the disruption caused by blowing up large FF power plant?
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    NigeWick wrote: »
    I disagree. I'd push hard for 100% renewables and then get rid of nuclear, FF and wood pellet burning ASAP.

    But we (and Germany) won't get to 100% RE before the end of the life expectancy of existing nuclear plants (10-20yrs). So if you want 100% RE 'and then get rid of nuclear', then you aren't actually disagreeing with me at all. IYSWIM.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • lstar337
    lstar337 Posts: 3,442 Forumite
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    NigeWick wrote: »
    Can you imagine a terrorist bomb in a nuclear plant or even the disruption caused by blowing up large FF power plant?
    No, because how would they even get near it? I have been in and out of a few Nuclear plants, and the security is incredibly tight. First, you can't even get through the gate unless you are invited (they have armed guards). Then you have all kinds of body checks, plus you have to surrender your electrical items. Then you are pretty much escorted everywhere, in fact the toilet is about the only place you are left alone.

    I know the news papers like the Daily Fail like to prattle on about these kinds of scenarios (planting the seeds of fear), but I can't see it in reality.

    Terrorists can get just a big of an impact, with much less hassle, buy attacking much less secure places. Just look at the recent awful events in Manchester. Such a huge impact, mostly because young people were the target. :(
  • Ben84
    Ben84 Posts: 3,069 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    I think Germany has built a very good RE base, but I'm not sure their plans to shut down their nuclear fleet early makes sense. If you've spent the money on them, and they are safe(ish), then milk every last low CO2 watt out of em ..... then move on to 21st century technology like windmills. ;)

    Despite a lot of very successful renewable energy projects, Germany still uses a lot of coal and oil to make electricity. Switching off their nuclear power stations, which are lower CO2 and air pollution energy sources, doesn't make environmental sense to me.

    Personally, I'm not uncomfortable with nuclear power, I used to view it as generally environmentally positive - but times change and I'm more more pro-renewables now. Still, if you have the choice to keep the nuclear plant running or the coal/oil plant running, nuclear looks better.
  • NigeWick
    NigeWick Posts: 2,715 Forumite
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    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    But we (and Germany) won't get to 100% RE before the end of the life expectancy of existing nuclear plants (10-20yrs).
    Once again, I disagree. If government got their finger out (which they won't), I reckon it could be as little as five years.

    The Siemens factory in 'Ull could crank up wind turbine production and they could build another couple of plants in about the two years it took to get the present one put up and running. Solar on all new builds could be legislated for and current buildings could be incentivised to have it fitted. I suspect local battery storage will be viable as soon as 2020 the way R&D is going. Won't happen of course but it could.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
  • NigeWick
    NigeWick Posts: 2,715 Forumite
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    lstar337 wrote: »
    No, because how would they even get near it?
    I refer you to what happened in New York and Washington a few years back. A light aircraft packed with explosives flown by a nutter taking off from a nearby small airfield would have no real problem. Or, they could buy an old armoured car/tank, pack that full of explosives and drive through the fence and brickwork.
    The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract.
    Oliver Wendell Holmes
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 14,766 Forumite
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    NigeWick wrote: »
    Once again, I disagree. If government got their finger out (which they won't), I reckon it could be as little as five years.

    I admire your optimism, but I don't think that scale of deployment is possible. Over the last 10 years RE has gone from 5% of leccy generation to 25%.

    I'm pretty sure we could double that rate, as off-shore wind is managing about 1% pa, PV did have a 1% year when about 4GWp was deployed, on-shore wind can do 1%pa, that's about 1.6GW of capacity roll out, and the tidal lagoon package might be manageable in 10yrs which is worth about 10%.

    So that's 40% more in the next 10yrs, but only with massive support from the government, which seems unlikley, taking us to 65% RE for leccy by late 2020's.

    We also have to consider how much other energy will move to leccy, such as EV's and domestic heating. Just the car fleet would add 20% to leccy demand, though hopefully it would also reduce demand by 10% for petrol/diesel refining.

    I'd very much like to see a world without future nuclear as it's not clean, doesn't look cheap, and if something goes wrong despite the likelyhood being tiny, the effects and costs are staggering.

    But, for me, if a country has nukes, and they are operating safely, then I'd say stick it out and keep milking the low carbon leccy for now.

    But ..... I'm not disagreeing with the principle of what you are saying, I just don't know if the scale is possible, but would very much enjoy being proved wrong.

    We've mentioned Tony Seba elsewhere, and his calcs on the disruptive effects of PV. He points out PV accounts for 1.5% of energy supply, but that the amount of PV has been doubling every two years, so theoretically, 6 to 7 doublings, could mean 100% of energy from PV by 2030.

    Though it did occur to me that the factories wouldn't want to produce at that rate given that PV will probably have a 30 to 40 year life expectancy, as they'd have no replacement business/market by 2030 and most of them would have to close, but the theory is there, especially given the already very low price of PV and PV generation.
    Mart. Cardiff. 5.58 kWp PV systems (3.58 ESE & 2.0 WNW). Two A2A units for cleaner heating.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
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