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  • FIRST POST
    • MSE Archna
    • By MSE Archna 28th Nov 08, 10:30 AM
    • 1,869Posts
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    MSE Archna
    Recession値l end soon: The joy of maths Blog Discussion
    • #1
    • 28th Nov 08, 10:30 AM
    Recession値l end soon: The joy of maths Blog Discussion 28th Nov 08 at 10:30 AM
    This is the discussion to link on the back of Martin's blog. Please read the blog first, as this discussion follows it.



    Click reply to discuss below.
    Report inappropriate posts: forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com




Page 1
  • Errata
    • #2
    • 28th Nov 08, 12:14 PM
    • #2
    • 28th Nov 08, 12:14 PM
    The most powerful tool in a politicians toolbox? Lies, damn lies and statistics.
    • JimmyTheWig
    • By JimmyTheWig 28th Nov 08, 12:19 PM
    • 11,097 Posts
    • 10,833 Thanks
    JimmyTheWig
    • #3
    • 28th Nov 08, 12:19 PM
    • #3
    • 28th Nov 08, 12:19 PM
    Maths is a joy at all times, not just for political spin. But I don't quite get your point on this one, Martin.
    Surely what is important is the question "are things getting better or getting worse?" GDP going from 」961b to 」962b means things are getting getting better, so I'm happy to say the recession had ended.
    If a football team is on a losing streak then win a game I would say their losing streak had finished. The fact that they are still further down the table than when their losing streak started doesn't really come in to it.

    I certainly take your point about the two successive quarters business. The economy could be shrinking every half-year and still not be in "recession". But I guess that's pretty unlikely.
    • nomoneytoday
    • By nomoneytoday 28th Nov 08, 1:15 PM
    • 4,597 Posts
    • 2,758 Thanks
    nomoneytoday
    • #4
    • 28th Nov 08, 1:15 PM
    • #4
    • 28th Nov 08, 1:15 PM
    You never know you are / were in a recession until the figures come out afterwards
    • MSE Martin
    • By MSE Martin 28th Nov 08, 7:57 PM
    • 8,087 Posts
    • 42,210 Thanks
    MSE Martin
    • #5
    • 28th Nov 08, 7:57 PM
    • #5
    • 28th Nov 08, 7:57 PM
    Maths is a joy at all times, not just for political spin. But I don't quite get your point on this one, Martin.
    Surely what is important is the question "are things getting better or getting worse?" GDP going from 」961b to 」962b means things are getting getting better, so I'm happy to say the recession had ended.
    If a football team is on a losing streak then win a game I would say their losing streak had finished. The fact that they are still further down the table than when their losing streak started doesn't really come in to it.

    I certainly take your point about the two successive quarters business. The economy could be shrinking every half-year and still not be in "recession". But I guess that's pretty unlikely.
    Originally posted by JimmyTheWig
    I see your question.

    My point is recession in common parlance and recession in technical definition differ. So when most people here "the recession is over" that conjures images of things being back to the good times. It doesn't it just means as you say, thing have stopped getting worse.

    I may go and tweak my blog for clarity.
    Martin Lewis, Money Saving Expert.
    Please note, answers don't constitute financial advice, it is based on generalised journalistic research. Always ensure any decision is made with regards to your own individual circumstance.

    Don't miss out on urgent MoneySaving, get my weekly e-mail at www.moneysavingexpert.com/tips.

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  • username2003
    • #6
    • 28th Nov 08, 10:19 PM
    • #6
    • 28th Nov 08, 10:19 PM
    Darn it, I was going to post something similar and so precise that Evan Davies would demand I go on the Today programme and Martin would give me loads of free stuff as I had advertsied the site brilliantly.

    Sadly my computer shut down.

    Suffice to say I was going to say that recession terms isnt maths but an economic statement. Maybe the blog could be titled the joy of economics? - Dsylexic pendants of the world untie!


    Course the gvmts whole plan for the good times to come back. A 2% growth rate in two years time! Very worrying. Martin is just reminding us that in two years time its probably going to look a lot worse.
    Unsecured Debt 11,000 ish Feb 08 ok honestly more or less 12,000 and no more Credit available

    Dec 09 4,100ish -waiting for the credit card bill,
    I look forward to getting the bill through the post now.
    • ampersand
    • By ampersand 29th Nov 08, 7:41 AM
    • 7,769 Posts
    • 27,915 Thanks
    ampersand
    • #7
    • 29th Nov 08, 7:41 AM
    • #7
    • 29th Nov 08, 7:41 AM
    '- Dsylexic pendants of the world untie!' -
    ###############
    Enjoyed.

    (But I suppose someone will tut-tut, re: 'chuckling at' vs 'chuckling with')
    CAP[UK]for FREE EXPERT DEBT&BUDGET HELP:01274 760720, freephone0800 328 0006
    'People don't want much. They want: "Someone to love, somewhere to live, somewhere to work and something to hope for."
    Norman Kirk, NZLP- Prime Minister, 1972
    ***JE SUIS CHARLIE***
    'It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere' Fran輟is-Marie AROUET


  • meester
    • #8
    • 30th Nov 08, 2:51 PM
    • #8
    • 30th Nov 08, 2:51 PM
    I see your question.

    My point is recession in common parlance and recession in technical definition differ. So when most people here "the recession is over" that conjures images of things being back to the good times. It doesn't it just means as you say, thing have stopped getting worse.

    I may go and tweak my blog for clarity.
    Originally posted by MSE Martin
    You could do that, or you could forget the technicalities, and instead consider the likelier reason: that the government are utterly clueless.

    For the laughs:
    http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Nl1/Newsroom/DG_070832

    2007 Pre-Budget Report
    • Published: Tuesday, 9 October 2007

    The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, presented the Pre-Budget Report and the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review to the House of Commons today.

    Economic growth

    Reflecting the assumed impact of financial market disruption, the 2007 Pre-Budget Report economic forecast is for GDP growth of 3 per cent in 2007, slowing to 2 to 2.5 per cent in 2008, before strengthening to trend at 2.5 to 3 per cent in 2009 and 2010.

  • Gasman2
    • #9
    • 2nd Dec 08, 12:08 PM
    • #9
    • 2nd Dec 08, 12:08 PM
    It simply means things have stopped getting any worse.
    Surely that's really the whole point of it though?

    Once things are no longer getting worse people's confidence will start to build. If they have survived financially until then, they will believe they will be OK now that things 'aren't getting any worse'.
    • JimmyTheWig
    • By JimmyTheWig 2nd Dec 08, 12:15 PM
    • 11,097 Posts
    • 10,833 Thanks
    JimmyTheWig
    I agree, Gasman2. It sounds as though you are looking at it from the same angle as I am.
    • hethmar
    • By hethmar 2nd Dec 08, 12:44 PM
    • 10,395 Posts
    • 9,828 Thanks
    hethmar
    Its the half full/half empty glass syndrome

    I agree with you two guys, not getting worse, means some stability.
  • harryhound
    We have had a couple of classic comments reported on the (Economy &) House Prices section of the forum:

    "My house went up 100% in 4 years so even if it falls 50% I'll still be 50% better off [than renting]".

    Now that we are over a year into falling house prices, there has been an upward movement at the foot of the ski slope graph of the rate of house price fall. (because the index number for autumn '07 has fallen out of the calculation):
    "..........things are getting better".
    [Getting worse slightly less fast?]
    • JimmyTheWig
    • By JimmyTheWig 10th Dec 08, 1:52 PM
    • 11,097 Posts
    • 10,833 Thanks
    JimmyTheWig
    "My house went up 100% in 4 years so even if it falls 50% I'll still be 50% better off [than renting]".
    Originally posted by harryhound
    lol

    [Getting worse slightly less fast?]
    Surely this is something (if part of a real trend and not just a specific statistic) that needs to happen before things get better. Which means we are closer to things getting better. Which means, in some sense, that things are better. IFSWIM?
  • harryhound
    Over on the Economics board there is a poll on when will it get better.
    My punt was "no green shoots this side of Xmas 2010"

    [ This decision is really important for my son and daughter in law as they are Sell To Renters, currently happy to have a flat for less than the landlord must be paying on his mortgage ]

    Typical thread here:
    http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1322631
    (Just ignore the "banter" for which this board is notorious.)
    Last edited by harryhound; 11-12-2008 at 10:38 AM.
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