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Recession値l end soon: The joy of maths Blog Discussion
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# 1
MSE Archna
Old 28-11-2008, 10:30 AM
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Default Recession値l end soon: The joy of maths Blog Discussion

This is the discussion to link on the back of Martin's blog. Please read the blog first, as this discussion follows it.



Click reply to discuss below.
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# 2
Errata
Old 28-11-2008, 12:14 PM
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The most powerful tool in a politicians toolbox? Lies, damn lies and statistics.
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# 3
JimmyTheWig
Old 28-11-2008, 12:19 PM
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Maths is a joy at all times, not just for political spin. But I don't quite get your point on this one, Martin.
Surely what is important is the question "are things getting better or getting worse?" GDP going from 」961b to 」962b means things are getting getting better, so I'm happy to say the recession had ended.
If a football team is on a losing streak then win a game I would say their losing streak had finished. The fact that they are still further down the table than when their losing streak started doesn't really come in to it.

I certainly take your point about the two successive quarters business. The economy could be shrinking every half-year and still not be in "recession". But I guess that's pretty unlikely.
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# 4
nomoneytoday
Old 28-11-2008, 1:15 PM
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You never know you are / were in a recession until the figures come out afterwards
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# 5
MSE Martin
Old 28-11-2008, 7:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyTheWig View Post
Maths is a joy at all times, not just for political spin. But I don't quite get your point on this one, Martin.
Surely what is important is the question "are things getting better or getting worse?" GDP going from 」961b to 」962b means things are getting getting better, so I'm happy to say the recession had ended.
If a football team is on a losing streak then win a game I would say their losing streak had finished. The fact that they are still further down the table than when their losing streak started doesn't really come in to it.

I certainly take your point about the two successive quarters business. The economy could be shrinking every half-year and still not be in "recession". But I guess that's pretty unlikely.
I see your question.

My point is recession in common parlance and recession in technical definition differ. So when most people here "the recession is over" that conjures images of things being back to the good times. It doesn't it just means as you say, thing have stopped getting worse.

I may go and tweak my blog for clarity.
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# 6
username2003
Old 28-11-2008, 10:19 PM
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Darn it, I was going to post something similar and so precise that Evan Davies would demand I go on the Today programme and Martin would give me loads of free stuff as I had advertsied the site brilliantly.

Sadly my computer shut down.

Suffice to say I was going to say that recession terms isnt maths but an economic statement. Maybe the blog could be titled the joy of economics? - Dsylexic pendants of the world untie!


Course the gvmts whole plan for the good times to come back. A 2% growth rate in two years time! Very worrying. Martin is just reminding us that in two years time its probably going to look a lot worse.
Unsecured Debt 11,000 ish Feb 08 ok honestly more or less 12,000 and no more Credit available

Dec 09 4,100ish -waiting for the credit card bill,
I look forward to getting the bill through the post now.
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Old 29-11-2008, 7:41 AM
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'- Dsylexic pendants of the world untie!' -
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Enjoyed.

(But I suppose someone will tut-tut, re: 'chuckling at' vs 'chuckling with')
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# 8
meester
Old 30-11-2008, 2:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MSE Martin View Post
I see your question.

My point is recession in common parlance and recession in technical definition differ. So when most people here "the recession is over" that conjures images of things being back to the good times. It doesn't it just means as you say, thing have stopped getting worse.

I may go and tweak my blog for clarity.
You could do that, or you could forget the technicalities, and instead consider the likelier reason: that the government are utterly clueless.

For the laughs:
http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Nl1/Newsroom/DG_070832

2007 Pre-Budget Report
  • Published: Tuesday, 9 October 2007

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, presented the Pre-Budget Report and the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review to the House of Commons today.

Economic growth

Reflecting the assumed impact of financial market disruption, the 2007 Pre-Budget Report economic forecast is for GDP growth of 3 per cent in 2007, slowing to 2 to 2.5 per cent in 2008, before strengthening to trend at 2.5 to 3 per cent in 2009 and 2010.

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# 9
Gasman2
Old 02-12-2008, 12:08 PM
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Quote:
It simply means things have stopped getting any worse.
Surely that's really the whole point of it though?

Once things are no longer getting worse people's confidence will start to build. If they have survived financially until then, they will believe they will be OK now that things 'aren't getting any worse'.
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# 10
JimmyTheWig
Old 02-12-2008, 12:15 PM
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I agree, Gasman2. It sounds as though you are looking at it from the same angle as I am.
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# 11
hethmar
Old 02-12-2008, 12:44 PM
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Its the half full/half empty glass syndrome

I agree with you two guys, not getting worse, means some stability.
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# 12
harryhound
Old 10-12-2008, 11:29 AM
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We have had a couple of classic comments reported on the (Economy &) House Prices section of the forum:

"My house went up 100% in 4 years so even if it falls 50% I'll still be 50% better off [than renting]".

Now that we are over a year into falling house prices, there has been an upward movement at the foot of the ski slope graph of the rate of house price fall. (because the index number for autumn '07 has fallen out of the calculation):
"..........things are getting better".
[Getting worse slightly less fast?]
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# 13
JimmyTheWig
Old 10-12-2008, 1:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harryhound View Post
"My house went up 100% in 4 years so even if it falls 50% I'll still be 50% better off [than renting]".
lol

Quote:
[Getting worse slightly less fast?]
Surely this is something (if part of a real trend and not just a specific statistic) that needs to happen before things get better. Which means we are closer to things getting better. Which means, in some sense, that things are better. IFSWIM?
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# 14
harryhound
Old 11-12-2008, 10:27 AM
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Over on the Economics board there is a poll on when will it get better.
My punt was "no green shoots this side of Xmas 2010"

[ This decision is really important for my son and daughter in law as they are Sell To Renters, currently happy to have a flat for less than the landlord must be paying on his mortgage ]

Typical thread here:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/...html?t=1322631
(Just ignore the "banter" for which this board is notorious.)

Last edited by harryhound; 11-12-2008 at 10:38 AM.
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