What will the recovery look like?

"I think there's a good chance that exports will play a significant role in leading the UK out of recession," says Stephen Radley, chief economist for the manufacturers' organisation EEF.

UK exporters are already benefiting from the weak pound against the euro and the dollar, which makes their products cheaper to their overseas customers.

The problem with an export-led recovery is that it means we would have to wait for other countries to have their recoveries before we can.

So it looks as if we may be relying on exports and investment when the recovery comes, but perhaps we should not raise our hopes too high.

"We wouldn't necessarily think it's going to be a particularly exciting recovery, even in exports," Mr Radley warns.

There is a perception that there will not be a return to the sort of growth we were used to before the downturn began.

"We think growth will be much slower than it has been in the recent past," predicts Mr Goodwin.

"It's averaged over 3% over the past decade and we're looking at something nearer 2.25% going forwards."

On the other hand, the Armageddon scenario outlined in September, featuring total loss of confidence in currencies and economies has not happened and we should all be grateful for that.