Debate House Prices


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Mortgage lending up 16%

2

Comments

  • RabbitMad
    RabbitMad Posts: 2,069 Forumite
    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    Depends where you look I guess, but this is the press association. Non bias. They would also say "mortgage lending fell 10% in March" if it fell 10% in march. And that 10% wouldnt mean that much either, because of the small numbers.

    Quite true - all I was trying to say was this stat is meaningless without context and very few papers seem to have put any meaningful context within their reports.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dan: viewpost.gif
    And from the BBC
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8011719.stm

    Mortgage lending on the increase is a sure sign that the housing market is near the bottom.

    I posted on the Cheltenham prices holding up thread yesterday that some houses are close to their "true" value but I still expect them to fall further. I think we are still along way from "normality" whatever that maybe.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Ahhh take no notice of the BBC. They have a government to please.

    I try not to post anything from the BBC, instead looking for other sources.
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    Ahhh take no notice of the BBC. They have a government to please.

    I try not to post anything from the BBC, instead looking for other sources.

    I will re-word that for you.

    The actual news is not supporting my stance anymore, even though it was fine during the falls.
    I will have to look for articles not based on facts now to support my stance;):D
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    Link

    Mortgage lending rose by 16% during March in a further sign that activity in the housing market is beginning to pick up, figures showed.

    Looks good for those who are trying to buy.

    Also, could this be the result of QE doing it's job?

    That and the bailouts.

    Mortgage approvals need to hit about 70,000/month for house prices to start rising.

    It is good news that credit markets are stabilising. We're a long way from them being normal.
  • chucky
    chucky Posts: 15,170 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    That and the bailouts.

    Mortgage approvals need to hit about 70,000/month for house prices to start rising.

    It is good news that credit markets are stabilising. We're a long way from them being normal.

    when you say 70,000/month (and i don't disagree with your fugure), do you mean house sales or mortgage approvals?
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    chucky wrote: »
    when you say 70,000/month (and i don't disagree with your fugure), do you mean house sales or mortgage approvals?

    Mortgage approvals. Obviously that could change based on the number of people remortgaging for example. It's a good rule of thumb.

    The other thing is that real mortgage debt needs to rise by 5% pa for house prices to rise (not now but in normal times).
  • chucky
    chucky Posts: 15,170 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    Mortgage approvals. Obviously that could change based on the number of people remortgaging for example. It's a good rule of thumb.

    The other thing is that real mortgage debt needs to rise by 5% pa for house prices to rise (not now but in normal times).

    last month there were 60,000 sales, 10,000 short of the 70,000
    In a separate report, the Government's Revenue and Customs agency said 60,000 homes changed hands in March, a 40 per cent increase from February.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/uk-mortgage-lending-up-16-in-march-1672247.html

    there was also a 16% increase in Gross mortgage lending.
    Gross mortgage lending was an estimated £11.5 billion in March, a 16% rise from £9.9 billion in February but a 52% decline from £24.2 billion in March 2008, according to new data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
    http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2247

    therefore the combination of both should mean some sort of increase of house prices
  • mp2
    mp2 Posts: 80 Forumite
    as prices come down, sales will go up. its hardly surprising.

    by the time prices are down 40%, sales volumes will be back to normal...
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    chucky wrote: »
    last month there were 60,000 sales, 10,000 short of the 70,000
    http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/uk-mortgage-lending-up-16-in-march-1672247.html

    there was also a 16% increase in Gross mortgage lending.

    http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2247

    therefore the combination of both should mean some sort of increase of house prices

    60,000 sales isn't the same as 70,000 mortgage approvals.

    Also, I was trying to say (badly it seems) that prices will rise if mortgage lending rises by 5% a year in normal times. Times right now are far from normal. Unemployment has risen by 30% in the past year, GDP growth (according to the Chancellor) will be about 6% below trend this year, banks are still in a lot of trouble.

    I'd be very surprised if the average house in the UK costs more in real terms at the end of 2009 than it does today as measured by Haliwide.

    Fancy a charity bet on it?
  • chucky
    chucky Posts: 15,170 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    60,000 sales isn't the same as 70,000 mortgage approvals.

    Also, I was trying to say (badly it seems) that prices will rise if mortgage lending rises by 5% a year in normal times. Times right now are far from normal. Unemployment has risen by 30% in the past year, GDP growth (according to the Chancellor) will be about 6% below trend this year, banks are still in a lot of trouble.

    I'd be very surprised if the average house in the UK costs more in real terms at the end of 2009 than it does today as measured by Haliwide.

    Fancy a charity bet on it?

    i was trying to get some type of logic out of sales and not just mortgaged sales without taking into account this increased lending that would one of the drivers.

    i don't think that house prices will be higher either - there will be some monthly increases but nothing too serious.
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