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The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.
Comments
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A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »
AGAIN - SNP vote share has not increased.
Fact.
[/B]
Strange, I thought you said that the SNP would be sent a message.
What message was that?:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Not yet, no.IveSeenTheLight wrote: »What tripe, I'm in agreement with you
I suspect that the SNP will be the major party in Scotland.
Do you suspect otherwise?
Do you deny SNP vote share is decreasing?0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Strange, I thought you said that the SNP would be sent a message.
What message was that?
See post above.
Could you not fit it into the other post?0 -
@ISTL -. A little while ago I asked a question of you. You must have missed it, so I'll ask it again
Here it is:
If that last sentence is true then do you agree that the proposed timing of the referendum in the Oct 2018 to March 2019 timeframe is too early since the results of the Brexit negotiations will not be known at that time?IveSeenTheLight wrote: »I'm not getting into a semantics flaming spiral with you.
It was said by the PM, its still remains a possibility and many reports and EU leaders believe that it will take longer.
S2Union, not Disunion
I have a Right Wing and a Left Wing.
It's the only way to fly straight.0 -
A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »See post above.
Could you not fit it into the other post?
It was a response to a separate post of yours
Anyway, back on topic, what was the message that was to be sent to the SNP?:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
@ISTL -. A little while ago I asked a question of you. You must have missed it, so I'll ask it again
Here it is:
If that last sentence is true then do you agree that the proposed timing of the referendum in the Oct 2018 to March 2019 timeframe is too early since the results of the Brexit negotiations will not be known at that time?
S2
I am in agreement that the referendum for Scottish Independence should occur post Brexit negotiations.
I believe it was TM that said that the Brexit negotiations could be achieved in that timeframe:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
I don't have any sort of problem Tricky. I'm just here passing the time of day with you. But also have no problem in trying to shift your perspective. You're stuck in some sort of party political merry go round where you think it's ok for one parliament in the UK to ignore the express wishes of another one.. simply because they do not like the party or parties that have an elected majority in charge at the moment.TrickyTree83 wrote: »Your problem is if the majority of the electorate reject pro-independence parties on June 8th there is sound ground to say no. So not ignoring it but actually testing the will of the Scots in a general election before jumping into a divisive referendum campaign again. If you were convinced of 50%+ support for pro-indy parties I think you would be saying the same, that the will of the people should prevail rather than the will of the SNP and a Green party who sold their support out when they backed the bill in Holyrood.
You'd never dream of the EU parliament refusing a Brexit referendum on the basis that they do not like the Tories in charge at Westminster or because they don't get 50% of the vote. It's nonsensical fantasy stuff. Yet you're trying to apply these same nonsensical fantasy standards to Scotland and it's elected representatives.
It is Westminster in essence refusing to acknowledge the democratic legitimacy of the current Scottish Parliament. And when she refuses, she'll reap what she sows in doing so (whatever that is). The last poll which asked the question a majority thought that May should issue a section 30 as requested.Who do you think should have the right to decide if there should be a referendum in Scotland that would allow the people of Scotland to choose between Brexit and independence? Should it be...
The Scottish Parliament : 61%
The Westminster Parliament : 39%Do you think the Westminster Parliament should have the right to block a plan for a referendum in Scotland, even if it is agreed on and voted for by the Scottish Parliament?
Yes 42%
No 58%
Survation March 31.Who do you think should have the right to decide the timing of a referendum in Scotland that would allow the people of Scotland to choose between Brexit and Independence, if it were to happen? Should it be….
The Scottish Parliament : 56%
The Westminster Parliament : 44%
Why are you ignoring figures like these where a direct question has been asked ? And instead ascribing motivations gleaned from mind reading why some are voting Labour, some Lib Dem, some Tory in a future Westminster General Election. Not everyone voting Labour will be voting on an independence/union basis and the same goes for all the other parties too.
The council elections and this GE are not independence referendums.Don't you find it odd when you're trying to explain to me that a vote for the SNP is not a vote for independence whilst at the same time trying to establish plaudits for the independence cause in the shape of the local election results?
No. I think you're spouting nonsensical fantasy stuff which has no place in modern democracy. Either you recognise the Scottish Parliament as democratically legitimate, or you don't. You don't get to chop and change what it's to be depending on which parties make the Holyrood numbers up lol.I think you agree with me but you can not or will not admit it. The election on June 8th is an independence referendum litmus test. If the SNP + Green vote gets 50%+ you'll probably get your referendum, maybe not when you want it but you'll probably get it. If you do not and it's below 50% then it is reasonable for Westminster to say no since 50%+ of the Scottish electorate do not want it.
Which is it for you ?It all seems so stupid it makes me want to give up.
But why should I give up, when it all seems so stupid ?0 -
A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »Your squirming is just showing you up for what you really are - a procrastinator of the first order absolutely determined to cling on to what little hoe you have left.
Here you go:
2017 total number of votes cast: 1,889,658 SNP vote achieved 32.3%
2012 total number votes cast: 1,556,773 SNP Vote achieved 32.33%
So the SNP achieved 100,000 more votes in 2017 when overall
332,000 more votes were cast.
AGAIN - SNP vote share has not increased.
Fact.
Well you went a bit quiet on those extra 100,000 votes. Hey ho, let's hope all those poll watchers and subsample watchers from the full UK based polls are starting to pick up an anti-Tory backlash as there was in 2010. Here's hoping.but it has to be said that the last week of Scottish subsamples has made for considerably pleasanter reading as far as the SNP are concerned. There hasn't been even a single one in which they've slipped below the 40% mark, which certainly wasn't the case earlier in the campaign. Their best showing was 56% in a Panelbase subsample released today, and there have also been four others in the high 40s. The obvious hope is that the media hype over the Tory gains in the local elections has backfired, and that anti-Tory voters are now coalescing behind the SNP.
The following subsample average is based on eight polls - two YouGov, one Survation, one ComRes, one ICM, one Opinium, one ORB and one Panelbase.
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
SNP 46.4% (+3.6)
Conservatives 28.0% (-2.3)
Labour 14.6% (-0.4)
Liberal Democrats 6.5% (-1.0)
Not the most reliable of course subsamples but probably just as reliable as votes shares in an STV voting system is.It all seems so stupid it makes me want to give up.
But why should I give up, when it all seems so stupid ?0 -
Just educating myself on the UK regional Q4 2016 trade figures...
Well well well. Lets break it down a bit further...
No wonder they are clinging on as hard as they can.
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx0 -
A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »Not yet, no.
Do you deny SNP vote share is decreasing?
I've not looked at the figures, but if we were to take your post as the referenceA_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »Here you go:
2017 total number of votes cast: 1,889,658 SNP vote achieved 32.3%
2012 total number votes cast: 1,556,773 SNP Vote achieved 32.33%
So the SNP achieved 100,000 more votes in 2017 when overall
332,000 more votes were cast.
I would not get my knickers in a twist over a potential 0.03% variance, especially given the statistical rounding that also appears to be shown.
Digging in a little deeper, the figures appear to show that there is a variance of 0.0203945% rounded between the 2012 and 2017 council elections.
All within the realms of expectation given that turnout was 39.6% and 46.9% respectively
Do you realise that a 0.0203945% variance equates to 385 votes out of the 1889658 cast?
So I'll agree with you that statistically, the share has very marginally decreased, but in reality and within the realms of statistical analysis, the data points to a plateau in my opinion.
Now, given all that said and the SNP remained pretty flat, the conservatives failed to get the same share that Labour did in 2012
Labour achieved 31.39% in 2012
Conservatives only achieved 25.3% in 2017.
Indeed, if you look at Conservative and Labour combined in 2012, they achieved 44.66% of the First Preference Vote
In 2017, they achieved 45.5%.
The council elections only saw a swing from Labour to Conservative with SNP remaining flat.
The gap between the SNP and the second largest party of councilors has widened in 2017:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0
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