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Hometrack July -0.1%
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
Results at a glance
Despite weak consumer sentiment the housing market is currently in broad equilibrium although prices continue to slowly edge lower.
Headline prices fell by -0.1% in July.
The balance between supply and demand has improved significantly over the last 6 months largely as a result of steady growth in demand since the beginning of the year.
An improved supply/demand balance together with a rising number of sales agreed – up 20% in the last 2 months – indicate that current pricing levels are broadly sustainable.
The proportion of the asking price achieved has remained at around 92.7% for the last 6 months with sellers accepting, on average, a 7% reduction in the asking price to achieved price.
Improving sales volumes have reduced the average time on the market to 9.4 weeks in July down from 9.7 weeks in June.
There are wide variations to the headline trend in prices. Average prices were up by 0.3% in London and East Anglia in July but fell across all other regions. Prices were down by as much as -0.6% in the South West.
Across the whole country prices moved higher across 8% of postcodes – primarily in London.
Prices were lower across 27% of postcodes with two fifths of the falling areas located in the South East and South West.
Stagnation remains for most people in most areas.
Despite weak consumer sentiment the housing market is currently in broad equilibrium although prices continue to slowly edge lower.
Headline prices fell by -0.1% in July.
The balance between supply and demand has improved significantly over the last 6 months largely as a result of steady growth in demand since the beginning of the year.
An improved supply/demand balance together with a rising number of sales agreed – up 20% in the last 2 months – indicate that current pricing levels are broadly sustainable.
The proportion of the asking price achieved has remained at around 92.7% for the last 6 months with sellers accepting, on average, a 7% reduction in the asking price to achieved price.
Improving sales volumes have reduced the average time on the market to 9.4 weeks in July down from 9.7 weeks in June.
There are wide variations to the headline trend in prices. Average prices were up by 0.3% in London and East Anglia in July but fell across all other regions. Prices were down by as much as -0.6% in the South West.
Across the whole country prices moved higher across 8% of postcodes – primarily in London.
Prices were lower across 27% of postcodes with two fifths of the falling areas located in the South East and South West.
Stagnation remains for most people in most areas.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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I think there are some rose tinted glasses perched on the nose of the writer. Volumes are down YoY (I think) and this report is telling the same story as the others: prices are very gently trending downwards still.
YoY they show asking prices down about 4%.0 -
I think there are some rose tinted glasses perched on the nose of the writer.
Perhaps, but that's taken word for word from the hometrack report.Volumes are down YoY (I think) and this report is telling the same story as the others: prices are very gently trending downwards still.
YoY they show asking prices down about 4%.
As an overall picture that sounds about right to me.
But the split of rising/falling/stagnating is interesting, and broadly reflects what RICS have been telling us for some time.
The 28% of areas falling is enough to outweigh the 8% of areas rising to show a slight downwards drift in the indices.
But most houses, in most places, are neither rising nor falling....
Prices are stable in the majority of the country.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Prices up North are going down, the regional picture is all rather different0
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Prices up North are going down, the regional picture is all rather different
Yes, "up north" is included in the 28% of postcodes where prices are falling.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Perhaps, but that's taken word for word from the hometrack report.
As an overall picture that sounds about right to me.
But the split of rising/falling/stagnating is interesting, and broadly reflects what RICS have been telling us for some time.
The 28% of areas falling is enough to outweigh the 8% of areas rising to show a slight downwards drift in the indices.
But most houses, in most places, are neither rising nor falling....
Prices are stable in the majority of the country.
YoY figures are currently showing minus on all indices, but this masks better figures in the past 6 months compared to the 6 months previously.
Nationwide should be out this week and is currently showing a 0.4% fall YoY. But August 2010 was down 0.8% so, if August 2011 index is minus 0.3% or better, Nationwide will actually be positive YoY.
We can all then agree that prices nationally are trending gently upwards. If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
YoY figures are currently showing minus on all indices, but this masks better figures in the past 6 months compared to the 6 months previously.
Nationwide should be out this week and is currently showing a 0.4% fall YoY. But August 2010 was down 0.8% so, if August 2011 index is minus 0.3% or better, Nationwide will actually be positive YoY.
We can all then agree that prices nationally are trending gently upwards.
The data are the data. If they show prices rising or falling then that's what they say. There's not much point arguing with the numbers unless there's a good case to be made that they are wrong (eg that 3% odd drop in the Halifax figures last year).0 -
We can all then agree that prices nationally are trending gently upwards.
The only thing "gently trending upwards" at the moment is the amount of ramping by some bullish types.
As far as I'm concerned, I predicted house prices would cease to increase soon (that was around 2005/6). I thought prices could drop 25-30%. We've had 4 years of virtually zero HPI (with a few bumps along the way). The market is correcting, but it's nice to see the bulls behaving like fish out of water, and gasping for every little bit of HPI.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
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Nice try, but the bears were predicting large nominal drops. There is a hell of a lot of bear revisionism going on at present, where a "crash" is redefined as a smallish nominal drop plus nominal stagnation, but that isn't what you said as part of the prediction.
What the "bulls" have said by and large is that nominal levels in the UK are sustainable on the basis of the supply/demand shortfal in the UK and we expected stagnation. So its disingenuous in the extreme to claim that your predictions with hindsight are better than the predictions made in advance which have turned out to be accurate. The claim now seems to be that because you are "right" with the benefit of hindsight, the bull arguments must be wrong without actually laying out what they were. Which is ridiculous.
Geneer is the extreme case of this, but it's coming from most of the bears now, at least those who still bother being bears.0 -
Geneer is the extreme case of this, but it's coming from most of the bears now, at least those who still bother being bears.
Extreme indeed.
BTW just in case anyone missed it (the discussion topic was pulled), geneer was banned a week or so ago.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0
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