Debate House Prices


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House price predictions

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baby_boomer
baby_boomer Posts: 3,883 Forumite
Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
in Debate House Prices & the Economy
We wouldn't want them to forget what they said, would we?
Date - Organisation - Fall from peak - Date of trough - Return to 2007 prices in

08/08....CEBR(1)..............14%..........Mid 2009..................2011 
08/08....Savills..............25%..........End 2009..................2012
10/08....CEBR(2)..............25%..........End 2009..................2013
10/08....KFH, London EA.......25%..........Early 2009-2010....Recovery from 2011
09/08....Nationwide CEO.......25%..........End 2009..................201?
10/08....Knight Frank.........30%..........2009/10...................2015
06/08....Global Insight.......30%..........Mid 2010..................201?
08/08....Capital Economics(1).35%..........2010......................201?
10/08....Capital Economics(2).35%..........2009..Long,slow recovery to 20??
01/09....Capital Economics(3)........................................2032
02/09....CEBR(3)..............32%...........First 1/4 2010...........2013
02/09....CEBR(4)..............40%...........2012.....................20??
The difference between CEBR(3) and (4) depends, according to them, on whether the government intervenes to get lending flowing.

Please add the info for any others so I can add them to the table.
«1

Comments

  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    From 10 long months ago:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7150229.stm
    The Nationwide forecasts that annual house price inflation will have dwindled to nil by the end of 2008, describing this as a "significant slowdown".

    The other big lender, the Halifax, also believes that property inflation will be flat by the end of the coming year.

    The CML did rather better:

    "There has been lots of action by central banks to kick-start the wholesale funding market, and banks may release funds in the New Year that they are currently hoarding."

    That is the optimistic scenario.
    But if the freeze in lending between financial institutions continues, then there could be a real shortage of mortgage money in 2008, with a consequent slump in house sales
  • baby_boomer
    baby_boomer Posts: 3,883 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    If we're going to do this properly, I need to add the date of prediction. But we also need the predictions to have sufficient information to qualify.
    Generali wrote: »
    The CML did rather better:
    But they also came up with the most amusing statement.
    Banks may release funds ......that they are currently hoarding
    And even more recently the CML said that it was pointless predicting house prices :eek: even though they have seemed to make a career out of it in a rising market :confused: :rotfl:
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    27/12/2007
  • mystic_trev
    mystic_trev Posts: 5,434 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    I think House Prices will be the least of peoples problems in the next year or two as this recession is looks like being a pretty nasty one. Anyone wanting to sell will have to at a large reduction. They'll be no dilly dallying around, capitulation will have arrived, and those that want to sell (or can -as many will be in negative equity) will have to take massive reductions.

    My view - by end 2009

    House prices down by another 20% +,taking us be back to 2001 in 'real' prices.

    Repossessions - 90,000 i.e. twice this years estimte.Many overleveraged BTL's will lose their Pension, and the Home they used as collateral. Many FTB's will have 'thrown in the towel' and gone back to live with their Parents.

    Unemployment - 2,500,000 +

    Inflation - negligible

    BofE base rate - 2.5%
  • Jonbvn
    Jonbvn Posts: 5,562 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts
    mystic_trev wrote: »
    I think House Prices will be the least of peoples problems in the next year or two as this recession is looks like being a pretty nasty one. Anyone wanting to sell will have to at a large reduction. They'll be no dilly dallying around, capitulation will have arrived, and those that want to sell (or can -as many will be in negative equity) will have to take massive reductions.

    My view - by end 2009

    House prices down by another 20% +,taking us be back to 2001 in 'real' prices.

    Repossessions - 90,000 i.e. twice this years estimte.Many overleveraged BTL's will lose their Pension, and the Home they used as collateral. Many FTB's will have 'thrown in the towel' and gone back to live with their Parents.

    Unemployment - 2,500,000 +

    Inflation - negligible

    BofE base rate - 2.5%

    MT,

    I think you paint a very realistic picture of the situation. That is how I am cutting my economic jib. The key for all of us is to hang onto your job/income. Anything more than that will be a bonus.

    Personally, I was looking to move jobs. However, I have decided against this for the time being, considering "better the devil you know" etc.
    In case you hadn't already worked it out - the entire global financial system is predicated on the assumption that you're an idiot:cool:
  • dervish
    dervish Posts: 926 Forumite
    500 Posts
    mystic_trev wrote: »
    I

    House prices down by another 20% +,taking us be back to 2001 in 'real' prices.


    what sort of price ios that then for an average property?
  • Realy
    Realy Posts: 1,017 Forumite
    dervish wrote: »
    what sort of price ios that then for an average property?

    Adjusted 2001 is £115K

    That is 25% below trend price.:confused:
    41% drop in total based on HPC graph.

    So predict 20% but its 40%.;)
    Bit deep, but its only somones opinion.
  • abaxas
    abaxas Posts: 4,141 Forumite
    I have 2 on going predictions. These are for the NE market and have a sportman's bet on these with one of my mates!

    1) a city centre flat will sell for <1/3 (33.3%) of it's original selling price during the next 3 years.

    2) a property will be sold for negative value (ie the owner paying for someone to take it from them) in the next 3 years.

    I'm feeling that the first one may be a little too easy, as I've allready seen flats got for almost 55% off. The second will be harder, but in the last 'downturn' (c) BBC it happened so why not again !
  • neverdespairgirl
    neverdespairgirl Posts: 16,501 Forumite
    Halifax

    Dec. 2007 - 0% in 2008
    April 2008 - "modest decline" in 2008
    May 2008 - drop 9% by end of 2008

    Nationwide

    Sept. 2007 - 3% growth in 2008
    Dec 2007 - 0% growth in 2008
    April 2008 - "modest falls" in 2008

    Hometrack

    Nov. 2007 - 1% growth in 2008

    Rightmove

    Dec 2007 - 0% growth in 2008

    Ernst & Young Item Club

    July 2008 - 10% down in 2008, 6% down in 2009

    Centre for Economics and Business Research

    Jan. 2008 - 2.5% down in 2008
    July 2008 - 12.8% down in 2008

    Capital Economics

    January 2008 - 5% down in 2008, 9% down in 2009
    April 2008 - down 8% in 2008, 10% in 2009
    July 2008 - 35% down by end 2010


    Global Insight

    June 2008 - 12% fall in each of 2008 and 2009

    Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

    Sept. 2007 - 10% chance of falls, stagnation likely
    Dec. 2007 - 5% fall in 2008

    Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)

    Dec. 2007 - 1% rise in 2008
    Jan. 2008 - flat in 2008
    May 2008 - 7% fall in 2008
    Sept. 2008 - "predictions futile"

    John Charcol mortgage brokers

    Dec. 2007 - 3% fall in 2008 , made up of 5% fall to June, then recovery
    May 2008 - 7% fall in 2008, stagnant in 2009
    ...much enquiry having been made concerning a gentleman, who had quitted a company where Johnson was, and no information being obtained; at last Johnson observed, that 'he did not care to speak ill of any man behind his back, but he believed the gentleman was an attorney'.
  • ad9898_3
    ad9898_3 Posts: 3,858 Forumite
    mystic_trev wrote: »
    I think House Prices will be the least of peoples problems in the next year or two as this recession is looks like being a pretty nasty one. Anyone wanting to sell will have to at a large reduction. They'll be no dilly dallying around, capitulation will have arrived, and those that want to sell (or can -as many will be in negative equity) will have to take massive reductions.

    My view - by end 2009

    House prices down by another 20% +,taking us be back to 2001 in 'real' prices.

    Repossessions - 90,000 i.e. twice this years estimte.Many overleveraged BTL's will lose their Pension, and the Home they used as collateral. Many FTB's will have 'thrown in the towel' and gone back to live with their Parents.

    Unemployment - 2,500,000 +

    Inflation - negligible

    BofE base rate - 2.5%

    Good post Trev, this is much more likely in my opinion than the so called 'expert' views.
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