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    • flatulantyounggoat
    • By flatulantyounggoat 31st Dec 18, 1:56 PM
    • 25Posts
    • 4Thanks
    flatulantyounggoat
    Buy now or wait till BREXIT
    • #1
    • 31st Dec 18, 1:56 PM
    Buy now or wait till BREXIT 31st Dec 18 at 1:56 PM
    Simple question really, I'm holding off house hunting until BREXIT has occurred. I think there will be a massive house price crash?

    Or, maybe there won't be. First time buyer either way. Any thoughts? Should I just get a move on with it.
Page 6
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 11th Jan 19, 11:35 AM
    • 12,840 Posts
    • 15,088 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    CC could you clarify your reasons for attacking my personal character?
    Originally posted by whyigetmorelikes

    (s)he wasnt. That was a reference to the user "Crashy Time"
    Please dont criticise my spelling. It's excellent. Its my typing that's bad.
    • lisyloo
    • By lisyloo 11th Jan 19, 11:56 AM
    • 23,384 Posts
    • 11,931 Thanks
    lisyloo
    (s)he wasnt. That was a reference to the user "Crashy Time"
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe

    Trashy Time = Crashy Time


    He/She continually trolls with little back up for their arguments and when it is presented it's often irrelevant or a different context.
    He/She not interested in enaging in serious debate just trying to talk down the property market.
    He/She provides no details of their personal situation which I think is relevant as I listen more attentively to people who've done well and people who promote STR (sell to rent) or timing the property market out to say how it's affected them.


    For me not trying to time the market means I own a nice home outright at 50 and have a decent pension pot and looking forward to early retirement. No gifts, no high salary (added as people here just make assumptions and make stuff up) just sensible budgetting/diversification and not listening to people who want other to take stupid risks or do nothing for decades.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 11th Jan 19, 1:10 PM
    • 7,516 Posts
    • 2,748 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    Halifax January House Price index - Shows house prices 2.2% up for December

    https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/December-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf
    Originally posted by 51mm5

    How did new enquiries, sales transactions and mortgage approvals fare?
    • whyigetmorelikes
    • By whyigetmorelikes 11th Jan 19, 1:28 PM
    • 43 Posts
    • 16 Thanks
    whyigetmorelikes
    (s)he wasnt. That was a reference to the user "Crashy Time"
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe
    my apologies CC
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 11th Jan 19, 1:37 PM
    • 7,516 Posts
    • 2,748 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    Trashy Time = Crashy Time


    He/She continually trolls with little back up for their arguments and when it is presented it's often irrelevant or a different context.
    He/She not interested in enaging in serious debate just trying to talk down the property market.
    He/She provides no details of their personal situation which I think is relevant as I listen more attentively to people who've done well and people who promote STR (sell to rent) or timing the property market out to say how it's affected them.


    For me not trying to time the market means I own a nice home outright at 50 and have a decent pension pot and looking forward to early retirement. No gifts, no high salary (added as people here just make assumptions and make stuff up) just sensible budgetting/diversification and not listening to people who want other to take stupid risks or do nothing for decades.
    Originally posted by lisyloo

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46748966


    This was posted recently by me to back up a discussion about credit conditions having changed dramatically since the heyday of the property bubble. The quote regarding credit conditions was...


    "Separate figures from the Bank of England showed that mortgage approvals for house purchases fell in November, and are now at half the level of 15 years ago."


    As far as I am aware you didn`t engage with this information, or the other two or three links I posted on the same thread, but instead used your usual posting style of stories about your own personal experiences of buying in the 1990`s. How does this help anyone buying now on the eve of Brexit? Personal experience doesn`t affect the property market in the same way that broad credit conditions affect the property market, and making up negative names for other posters just shows a lack of convincing counter argument IMO.
    Last edited by Crashy Time; 11-01-2019 at 1:46 PM.
    • MobileSaver
    • By MobileSaver 11th Jan 19, 2:12 PM
    • 1,684 Posts
    • 2,500 Thanks
    MobileSaver
    credit conditions having changed dramatically since the heyday of the property bubble. ... mortgage approvals ... are now at half the level of 15 years ago.
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    What relevance does what happened fifteen years ago have to today?

    For your information mortgage approvals are double what they were nine years ago so presumably by your metric that means the housing market is doing just fine thanks!
    Respect to 3 of the greatest actors of all time; amazing people who are totally believable as the characters they play & almost single-handedly make the shows they starred in:

    Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister in Game of Thrones
    Daniel J. Travanti as Frank Furillo in Hill Street Blues
    Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison in Homeland
    • AndyBSG
    • By AndyBSG 11th Jan 19, 2:15 PM
    • 971 Posts
    • 1,205 Thanks
    AndyBSG
    Obvious question, you hold off buying because you think house prices will crash.

    They do and you get a cheaper house... Yay.

    However, that have crashed because of the catastrophic effects of Brexit so although you have paid much less, the interest rates are now through the roof and your mortgage is costing much more.

    So, how have you benefited?

    Personally, I'd completely ignore Brexit because, as others have said, the chance of a real crash outside of London isn't as likely as everyone says simply because there are not enough houses to go around.

    Brexit won't change that so getting a long term fixed rate now, protecting yourself from the potentially catastrophic interest rate rises may actually be the safer option.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 11th Jan 19, 2:17 PM
    • 7,516 Posts
    • 2,748 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    What relevance does what happened fifteen years ago have to today?

    For your information mortgage approvals are double what they were nine years ago so presumably by your metric that means the housing market is doing just fine thanks!
    Originally posted by MobileSaver

    That wouldn`t be difficult though would it


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-mortgage-approvals-collapse-to-record-low-of-42000-857740.html


    And don`t forget we had the biggest bank bailout in history and Trillions in QE to keep debt holders treading water
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 11th Jan 19, 2:33 PM
    • 7,516 Posts
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    Crashy Time
    Obvious question, you hold off buying because you think house prices will crash.

    They do and you get a cheaper house... Yay.

    However, that have crashed because of the catastrophic effects of Brexit so although you have paid much less, the interest rates are now through the roof and your mortgage is costing much more.

    So, how have you benefited?

    Personally, I'd completely ignore Brexit because, as others have said, the chance of a real crash outside of London isn't as likely as everyone says simply because there are not enough houses to go around.

    Brexit won't change that so getting a long term fixed rate now, protecting yourself from the potentially catastrophic interest rate rises may actually be the safer option.
    Originally posted by AndyBSG

    There are plenty of houses to go around, and the tax/council tax penalty for keeping 2nd homes etc. empty is just going to get steeper and steeper, simply because there are plenty of votes in that approach now and the councils/government need the revenue. The banks no longer dish out juicy long term fixes at nothing interest rates to anyone who can fog a mirror, you need a chunky deposit, and the majority now are up to their neck in debt, so won`t be getting a mortgage to pay bubble prices anyway. Brexit is going to have long lasting effects on the numbers coming here, and that is sure to have a knock on effect for the property market.
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 12th Jan 19, 10:01 AM
    • 12,840 Posts
    • 15,088 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    Obvious question, you hold off buying because you think house prices will crash.

    They do and you get a cheaper house... Yay.

    However, that have crashed because of the catastrophic effects of Brexit so although you have paid much less, the interest rates are now through the roof and your mortgage is costing much more.

    So, how have you benefited?

    Personally, I'd completely ignore Brexit because, as others have said, the chance of a real crash outside of London isn't as likely as everyone says simply because there are not enough houses to go around.

    Brexit won't change that so getting a long term fixed rate now, protecting yourself from the potentially catastrophic interest rate rises may actually be the safer option.
    Originally posted by AndyBSG
    Unwarranted assumption . It seems very unlikely that interest rates would rise, especially "through the roof" Much more likely they would stay as is or fall , though they can't fall much. Indeed if you think "catastrophic interest rate rises would happen who on earth would instigate such a catastrophic rise? Since it would be "catastrophic".? It wouldn't happen.
    Please dont criticise my spelling. It's excellent. Its my typing that's bad.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 12th Jan 19, 11:08 AM
    • 7,516 Posts
    • 2,748 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/8155885/brexit-majority-first-time-buyers-waiting-house-prices-drop/


    The desperation from the property VI`s in this article to spin Brexit as something positive tells us all we need to know about transaction levels and mortgage approval levels I think. It will be credit conditions globally that finally decide the fate of the property market though, and that is driven by how things play out in China/US and EZ.
    Last edited by Crashy Time; 12-01-2019 at 11:14 AM.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 12th Jan 19, 11:13 AM
    • 7,516 Posts
    • 2,748 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    Unwarranted assumption . It seems very unlikely that interest rates would rise, especially "through the roof" Much more likely they would stay as is or fall , though they can't fall much. Indeed if you think "catastrophic interest rate rises would happen who on earth would instigate such a catastrophic rise? Since it would be "catastrophic".? It wouldn't happen.
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe

    It is zero rates that are "catastrophic" not the other way around, if house prices had been allowed to correct after 2008 (no HTB, rates raised gradually to sensible levels) there would never have been a win for Leave in the Brexit vote. The economic imbalances and damage to society and politics that propping up the price of houses and other assets has caused is going to come back and bite us big style IMO, and that is why the US central bank and others know it is time to raise rates and wind down QE. Too late though IMO.
    • JakeHall
    • By JakeHall 12th Jan 19, 2:44 PM
    • 6 Posts
    • 2 Thanks
    JakeHall
    My partner and I are first time buyers who are exchanging next week.

    My advice (for what it's worth!) is to focus on your circumstances.

    1. Where are you buying? Have prices substantially increased over the last 6-7 years or have they been relatively stable?

    2. How do the valuations of the properties you're looking at compare to previously sold prices?

    3. Is this a short term purchase or do you intend on living there in the medium to long term?

    Buying in London/south-east at a price which will set a record on the street or be not far off the record is high risk. You could well be in negative equity very quickly and find yourself stuck there for a long time.

    But buying somewhere where prices have been stable and intending to live there for the medium/long term may mean it doesn't matter too much when you buy, as it the prices haven't fluctuated much either way.

    Try to focus on this kind of information as it applies to your own circumstances rather than the extremes on either side of the argument.

    For example, had you followed price crash advisors, particularly if this was back in 2011-2012, then you will be kicking yourself due to increases since then.

    On the other hand, when we were first buying during the EU vote, we were told prices will keep rising, there's always a demand etc., but we didn't wish to take the risk and pulled out a few days after the Brexit result. Fast forward 2.5 years, properties on that same street are unsold at 5% lower than our accepted offer. Had we gone ahead we would be in around 5-10% negative equity with prices still seemingly falling.

    We're now exchanging this week on a slightly larger property in a better area for a few thousand more than what we were going to buy. We're well aware that what we're buying may also fall in value, or may crash, but we're willing to take the risk as we intend on living there for the medium term and our offer is 8% less than the last two that sold on the street (and 10% less than the record price on the street).

    So you may want to consider the above questions and see how they apply to your circumstances and the properties that interest you, rather than apply absolutes from people that won't know you and your circumstances.
    • jimbog
    • By jimbog 12th Jan 19, 5:19 PM
    • 812 Posts
    • 1,373 Thanks
    jimbog
    Not very classy to quote from The Sun, but from your link:
    we expect annual house price growth nationally to be in the range of two per cent to four per cent by the end of 2019
    Always remember that you are absolutely unique. Just like everyone else.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 13th Jan 19, 9:44 PM
    • 7,516 Posts
    • 2,748 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    Not very classy to quote from The Sun, but from your link:
    we expect annual house price growth nationally to be in the range of two per cent to four per cent by the end of 2019
    Originally posted by jimbog

    Do they expect transactions and mortgage approvals to pick up as well? Not sure how you think this headline figure based on falling transactions has any meaning or is in any way a good thing?
    • lisyloo
    • By lisyloo 14th Jan 19, 10:50 AM
    • 23,384 Posts
    • 11,931 Thanks
    lisyloo
    This was posted recently by me to back up a discussion about credit conditions having changed dramatically since the heyday of the property bubble.
    I agree, nothing to debate, but your link clearly shows prices STILL GOING UP.


    "Separate figures from the Bank of England showed that mortgage approvals for house purchases fell in November, and are now at half the level of 15 years ago."
    AND? by your own link prices are STILL GOING UP.


    As far as I am aware you didn`t engage with this information, or the other two or three links I posted on the same thread
    I'm not on here 24/7 because I have quit a good life that I'm engaged in.


    but instead used your usual posting style of stories about your own personal experiences of buying in the 1990`s. How does this help anyone buying now on the eve of Brexit?
    The fundamentals of gearing, no CGT, making repayments so that you have something (very significant) to show for your payments i.e. a house you can live in for decades rent free, are STILL ALL TRUE AND RELEVANT.


    Personal experience doesn`t affect the property market
    I agree, gearing, CGT, making repayments to an asset class that has signicant implicit value i.e. you can live in it for decades rent free are NOTHING to do with personal experience.


    making up negative names for other posters
    I agree and I DID NOT DO THAT, merely explained what another poster was implying.
    If you were aiming that comment at me then you should withdraw it as there is black and white evidence I did NOT MAKE UP THAT NAME.
    I dont make stuff up.


    I won't be engaging 24/7 as I have a nice life thank you.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 14th Jan 19, 11:40 PM
    • 7,516 Posts
    • 2,748 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-crisis-banks-economic-social-uk-finance-theresa-may-eu-a8727901.html


    There used to be a fringe website populated by "crashists" and "doom-mongers" that spouted this stuff all day, so bizarre to see the MSM now doing it, maybe it is really happening?
    • PhilE
    • By PhilE 15th Jan 19, 12:02 AM
    • 561 Posts
    • 357 Thanks
    PhilE
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-crisis-banks-economic-social-uk-finance-theresa-may-eu-a8727901.html


    There used to be a fringe website populated by "crashists" and "doom-mongers" that spouted this stuff all day, so bizarre to see the MSM now doing it, maybe it is really happening?
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    They used to scare people that there'd be potential food supply problems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-46814527
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 15th Jan 19, 9:43 PM
    • 7,516 Posts
    • 2,748 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    They used to scare people that there'd be potential food supply problems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-46814527
    Originally posted by PhilE

    "since his company, Emergency Food Storage UK, launched the Brexit Box last month he had sold more than 600"


    Not exactly full scale panic yet though?
    • Homersimpson
    • By Homersimpson 16th Jan 19, 10:05 PM
    • 392 Posts
    • 276 Thanks
    Homersimpson
    Crashy Time, you were absolutely right:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/brexit-uncertainty-is-continuing-to-kill-house-prices/ar-BBSjHhe?ocid=spartanntp

    Houses dropped 0.1% in a month, give it another 20 years at this rate and they will be approaching the 25% drop you want.
    I have a lot of problems with my neighbours, they hammer and bang on the walls sometimes until 2 or 3 in the morning - some nights I can hardly hear myself drilling
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