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  • FIRST POST
    • rcha
    • By rcha 6th Jul 18, 12:31 PM
    • 1Posts
    • 0Thanks
    rcha
    Best time to invest in Vanguard Funds
    • #1
    • 6th Jul 18, 12:31 PM
    Best time to invest in Vanguard Funds 6th Jul 18 at 12:31 PM
    We have around 40k to invest in our share ISA.
    We want to invest in vanguard lifestrategy60 for at least 5 to 10 years.
    Current market price is high. Is it advisable to invest now or wait for the good price.
    Your suggestion is much appreciate. thank you.
Page 1
    • chockydavid1983
    • By chockydavid1983 6th Jul 18, 12:39 PM
    • 608 Posts
    • 367 Thanks
    chockydavid1983
    • #2
    • 6th Jul 18, 12:39 PM
    • #2
    • 6th Jul 18, 12:39 PM
    Time in the market over timing the market
    • ColdIron
    • By ColdIron 6th Jul 18, 12:42 PM
    • 4,812 Posts
    • 6,326 Thanks
    ColdIron
    • #3
    • 6th Jul 18, 12:42 PM
    • #3
    • 6th Jul 18, 12:42 PM
    How long are you prepared to wait? You could wait a year and buy at an even higher price. You could buy a 10% drop after a 15% rise. You would be missing out on dividends while you wait. Maybe you could think about investing in tranches so get the average price over a few months. This could be higher than today's price or it could be lower
    • dunstonh
    • By dunstonh 6th Jul 18, 12:50 PM
    • 95,773 Posts
    • 63,468 Thanks
    dunstonh
    • #4
    • 6th Jul 18, 12:50 PM
    • #4
    • 6th Jul 18, 12:50 PM
    Current market price is high.
    Compared to what?

    Is it advisable to invest now or wait for the good price.
    So, you want to wait for it to go up 20% before investing in it?
    When is that good price going to meet your criteria?

    It may never fall below todays price ever again. It may be lower tomorrow, next week or next year.

    Lets say you get lucky and time a crash perfectly (you won't). What are you going to do in 3-24 months time when the next one comes. If you know the next one could be just 3 months away, would you take it out of the investment?

    Trying to time the market it futile as there is always a crash coming.
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). Comments are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
    • thickasabrick
    • By thickasabrick 6th Jul 18, 4:13 PM
    • 50 Posts
    • 40 Thanks
    thickasabrick
    • #5
    • 6th Jul 18, 4:13 PM
    Best time to invest in Vanguard Funds
    • #5
    • 6th Jul 18, 4:13 PM
    To quote from one of my favourite financial independence bloggers Mr Collins.

    I have £ xxx,xxx and want to invest. But the market is at an all time high. Wouldn’t I be better off waiting until it corrects 20%?

    Here’s the short answer:

    If you are asking this question you are not ready to invest. You don’t understand how the game works and what to expect from the ride. Until you do, stay away from the market.


    It's from this article titled "Why you should not be in the stock market"

    jlcollinsnh.com/2018/03/16/stocks-part-xxxii-why-you-should-not-be-in-the-stock-market/

    Summed up nicely by The Escape Artist in this article
    "There’s a major market crash coming…"

    theescapeartist.me/2018/01/15/theres-a-major-market-crash-coming/
    • Jeems
    • By Jeems 6th Jul 18, 4:22 PM
    • 189 Posts
    • 119 Thanks
    Jeems
    • #6
    • 6th Jul 18, 4:22 PM
    • #6
    • 6th Jul 18, 4:22 PM
    Markets were higher in Jan
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 6th Jul 18, 4:33 PM
    • 2,423 Posts
    • 1,715 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    • #7
    • 6th Jul 18, 4:33 PM
    • #7
    • 6th Jul 18, 4:33 PM
    It is not advisable to time the market. In the considered words if Shia LeBeouf "Just Do It!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10DQeSk1LaY
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • ChesterDog
    • By ChesterDog 6th Jul 18, 5:27 PM
    • 889 Posts
    • 1,670 Thanks
    ChesterDog
    • #8
    • 6th Jul 18, 5:27 PM
    • #8
    • 6th Jul 18, 5:27 PM
    If you had invested in the fund a couple of months ago, presumably you would now be thinking of selling?

    Should everyone who is currently invested in it be doing the same?

    Doesn't sound like a longterm approach when looked at like that, does it?
    I am one of the Dogs of the Index.
    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 6th Jul 18, 5:41 PM
    • 623 Posts
    • 314 Thanks
    TBC15
    • #9
    • 6th Jul 18, 5:41 PM
    • #9
    • 6th Jul 18, 5:41 PM
    If you must invest in VLS do it now. VLS 60 would seem to me to be a bad choice with 5-10yrs to go.
    • orlaflutter
    • By orlaflutter 6th Jul 18, 9:00 PM
    • 8 Posts
    • 2 Thanks
    orlaflutter
    If you must invest in VLS do it now. VLS 60 would seem to me to be a bad choice with 5-10yrs to go.
    Originally posted by TBC15
    Really? would you explain why you think so, because I was going to set this up myself for a similar period, thinking it was a good thing to do.
    • Terry Towelling
    • By Terry Towelling 6th Jul 18, 9:45 PM
    • 704 Posts
    • 562 Thanks
    Terry Towelling
    You probably weren't expecting answers like the ones you've got.

    Are you able to invest £40K in one go in an ISA?

    Anyway, your question was perfectly reasonable on the face of it and, yes, it would be preferable to buy in when prices are low, but no one can actually say what the market will do or when. You can try looking at historical data for trends but that will only tell you what happened in the past not what will happen in the future.

    As some have intimated, the market may never go any lower than this - or it might drop like a stone tomorrow. It will likely oscillate as time goes by but the hope is that, over time, it will trend upwards. There will be slumps/crashes/surges along the way. Take a look at the FTSE All Share prices for the last 20 years - the overall direction has been upwards but just look at some of the highs and lows along the way. You just have to hold your nerve.

    Remember also that investor behaviour may cause alarming movements in the market price but the performances of the companies within your fund/portfolio will likely still be fine and you should receive useful dividend income.

    If you're going to do it, you may just as well get on with it and ride the roller-coaster. I can't comment on your choice of fund - simply because I don't know.
    Last edited by Terry Towelling; 06-07-2018 at 9:47 PM.
    • Cactus_Jack
    • By Cactus_Jack 7th Jul 18, 2:37 AM
    • 567 Posts
    • 85 Thanks
    Cactus_Jack
    Hi OP.

    You could either put the lump sum in now, or cost average and feed in a few grand per month. The truth is, that nobody knows where the market is going next. But don't let this put you off. A wise quote I have heard, is that the biggest risk of the stock market, is not being in it.

    Sometimes the replies in this forum to new people asking questions, I think, could be re-thought to be less harsh and intensely questioning. People will be put off investing at all with this approach!
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 7th Jul 18, 8:08 AM
    • 3,602 Posts
    • 2,931 Thanks
    Alexland
    I agree with the others that its better to be invested in the market but yes asset prices are not cheap (relative to their return) at the moment and global interest rates are rising so apply caution when considering your portfolio ratios. Get in the water but don't be a hero - this might be a period to play it slightly safer. But at the same time don't go too heavy on bonds as they are offering an almost return free risk at the moment.

    Personally with a 20+ year investment horizon I am 70% equities, 20% bonds and 10% cash. If the markets stay positive I will still get a good result and if not then my cash and future contributions will be buying low.

    Alex.
    Last edited by Alexland; 07-07-2018 at 12:10 PM.
    • bcfclee27
    • By bcfclee27 7th Jul 18, 1:52 PM
    • 211 Posts
    • 51 Thanks
    bcfclee27
    I agree with the others that its better to be invested in the market but yes asset prices are not cheap (relative to their return) at the moment and global interest rates are rising so apply caution when considering your portfolio ratios. Get in the water but don't be a hero - this might be a period to play it slightly safer. But at the same time don't go too heavy on bonds as they are offering an almost return free risk at the moment.

    Personally with a 20+ year investment horizon I am 70% equities, 20% bonds and 10% cash. If the markets stay positive I will still get a good result and if not then my cash and future contributions will be buying low.

    Alex.
    Originally posted by Alexland
    Seems to be no obvious play at the moment.

    Cash = pointless (eroded by inflation)
    Bonds = pointless (risk of losing money with no return)
    Equities = very expensive but still best of the 3 options.

    I suppose if mortgage interest rates were higher that would be worth paying down.

    Even if you put all your S&S ISAs into cash with the plan of jumping all back in on a correction or crash it still may not come for years.....
    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 7th Jul 18, 4:46 PM
    • 623 Posts
    • 314 Thanks
    TBC15
    Really? would you explain why you think so, because I was going to set this up myself for a similar period, thinking it was a good thing to do.
    Originally posted by orlaflutter
    With the time frame, in my opinion you could afford to be more adventurous. But each unto their own.
    • Terry Towelling
    • By Terry Towelling 7th Jul 18, 5:31 PM
    • 704 Posts
    • 562 Thanks
    Terry Towelling
    I suppose if mortgage interest rates were higher that would be worth paying down.
    Originally posted by bcfclee27
    Don't be so quick to dismiss this as part of an overall strategy. Any overpayment has an impact on the amount of interest incurred for the entire period of the mortgage. E.G a single £1000 overpayment on a rate of, say, 2% with 20 years left to pay will save you £20 in the first year and the saving will then continue to compound for the rest of the 20-year term. If you are typical of many who are on a low rate for a few years, then the compounding effect of the savings becomes ever greater after the discounted rate has ended. Sometimes it can be worthwhile servicing more debt at a lower rate so there is less debt to service when the rate goes up.

    I'm not suggesting you throw the lot at your mortgage because I know nothing about it (or your circumstances) but as part of a balanced overall strategy there might be some benefit to be had from overpaying some of it.

    To once again draw on the wisdom of another contributor to the forum (still can't remember who) if you had no mortgage and wanted to make a £40K stock market investment would you be happy to take out a £40K mortgage to fund it? How you answer that question will tell you much about your attitude to risk and debt and may give you a steer towards what you really want to do.
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