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  • FIRST POST
    • cuddlymarm
    • By cuddlymarm 12th Jun 18, 1:39 PM
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    cuddlymarm
    Prepping for Brexit thread
    • #1
    • 12th Jun 18, 1:39 PM
    Prepping for Brexit thread 12th Jun 18 at 1:39 PM
    Hi guys
    Iím pretty well resolved to the fact that Brexit is going to affect us all. I donít want this thread to be a good or bad, right or wrong type thing.
    Just a positive, what can we prepare to make life easier, less expensive, less disruptive when it does happen.

    My aims are to stock up on items I think are going to get more expensive. Also to try and save up an emergency fund ( that will be slow going as OH took early retirement due to illness) and Iím unemployed at the moment.

    So my aims are to work out what items need to be stocked up
    To look for a job
    To live as frugally as possible while eating healthily
    To make sure the savings we have already donít get touched

    So guys please feel free to join in and list anything you think may be affected. Or just to comment. That way we can help each other.

    Hope to hear from you all soon
    Cuddles
Page 34
    • Mrs Salad Dodger
    • By Mrs Salad Dodger 3rd Aug 18, 11:10 PM
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    Mrs Salad Dodger
    I agree mattpaint. I am gradually building up a supply of tins & dry goods but currently do not have much space to stock things as my decluttering mojo has gone on holiday

    The really sad thing is that I think the sms will hike up prices of British goods as well.

    MrsSD
    • mattpaint
    • By mattpaint 3rd Aug 18, 11:13 PM
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    mattpaint
    I'm in a reasonably secure job, and have a second job freelancing too, so I earn good money but I really need to get a handle on my finances and build up a decent stock cupboard by March. I think you're right. My thinking was that at least I'll still have some luxuries if the worst happens and the economy crashes and I lose my job and have to go back to basics. My pantry is a good size but it also has my dryer in it so it's not the cool cupboard I could really do with.
    • Farway
    • By Farway 4th Aug 18, 3:23 PM
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    Farway
    I've begun quietly filling up my pantry with food that lasts from the EU that's going to become hard to come by after we leave. It's a seriously sad state of affairs that it's come to this.
    Originally posted by mattpaint

    I see no reason why food from EU will be "hard to come by" once we leave. Are they not going to sell it to us then? And any tariffs will be of our choosing, not imposed by EU


    For those of us who were alive pre EU, Common Market, we used to buy cheap food from Common Market then, they were dumping it because of their over supply & rigged market subsidies to their farmers


    The farm subsidies still exist, and I doubt French farmers will be blockading ports to stop us buying their produce instead of letting it rot in their fields
    Last edited by Farway; 04-08-2018 at 3:25 PM.
    • mardatha
    • By mardatha 4th Aug 18, 8:26 PM
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    mardatha
    I think those of us who lived before the EU are far more realistic and relaxed re this whole thing. But I agree that prices of everything will rise, it's too good an excuse for them not to use.
    • mattpaint
    • By mattpaint 5th Aug 18, 1:28 AM
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    mattpaint
    I see no reason why food from EU will be "hard to come by" once we leave. Are they not going to sell it to us then? And any tariffs will be of our choosing, not imposed by EU

    For those of us who were alive pre EU, Common Market, we used to buy cheap food from Common Market then, they were dumping it because of their over supply & rigged market subsidies to their farmers

    The farm subsidies still exist, and I doubt French farmers will be blockading ports to stop us buying their produce instead of letting it rot in their fields
    Originally posted by Farway
    Let's hope you're right. The owners of a Spanish deli/restaurant I shop in aren't as confident unfortunately.
    • Honey Bear
    • By Honey Bear 5th Aug 18, 5:13 PM
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    Honey Bear
    Let's hope you're right. The owners of a Spanish deli/restaurant I shop in aren't as confident unfortunately.
    Originally posted by mattpaint
    I'm with you MattPaint. I can't see how the produce can get here if there's No Deal, and even if we do get one and there's a Transition Period, I think we've left it a bit late to set up the border infrastructure to process all of the EU imports. If any of the pre-EU trade deals were still in place I wouldn't be so worried, but 40 years on they're all defunct. I'd rather go vegetarian than eat chlorinated chicken or hormone-injected beef.

    How useful do Preppers on this Forum Thread think dehydrator's really are? If you have one, do you think a vacuum sealer is also a necessity? I'm bidding on a Stockli on Ebay but I'm reallly not sure if it's worth cluttering up the house with another piece of kit. We don't have an allotment or garden so I'd have to buy all of the produce.
    Keeping it AF
    • MrsStepford
    • By MrsStepford 5th Aug 18, 7:49 PM
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    MrsStepford
    I see no reason why food from EU will be "hard to come by" once we leave. Are they not going to sell it to us then? And any tariffs will be of our choosing, not imposed by EU
    Originally posted by Farway
    Firstly, if there's no deal, on 29 March 2019, then there won't be a transition period. Contrary to Leaver politicians saying that we will have countries queuing up to sign deals with us, several have objected to the way in which the EU and UK are proposing to split agricultural import quotas. We aren't a WTO member in our own right and it only takes one country to say no and we are blackballed, Argentina for example.

    If we do get accepted by WTO then we have to abide by their rules. There's no question of us winging it all ourselves, having our own standards and tariffs. Who would want to buy our food, for example ? Farmers have recently been caught out dodging Red Tractor standards.

    The Commonwealth is unlikely to welcome us with open arms. Commonwealth countries are the ones objecting to the quota split. They see it as being disadvantageous to them and too advantageous to a small island. Secondly DFID has been telling poorer countries that a vote against UK means no aid and they don't like that bullying. CARICOM in the Caribbean is a trading bloc and British territories, who didn't get a vote, will find themselves facing tariffs to export to EU-owned territories in CARICOM, and cut off from EU aid programmes.

    If you're an exporter of anything, who are you going to prioritise, an island of 65m people or a continent with 480m people, the biggest trading bloc in the world ? If you are mired in red tape that eats into your profits, you'll want to prioritise countries in the same system because it's less hassle.

    The Channel Tunnel is French-owned now. Stena Line isn't British, neither is DFDS. These EU- member state owned companies will follow EU law. British driving licences will be invalid in the EU unless the driver has an International Driving Permit. What about insurance ? What about safety standards of vehicles ?

    The Le Touquet Agreement is between UK and France. What happens if France pulls out ? UK customs would return to Dover.

    So it is likely that even before March, food from the EU and elsewhere may become scarcer. Companies may choose not to renew contracts which expire between now and March. No-one can force them to supply us.
    • maryb
    • By maryb 5th Aug 18, 8:27 PM
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    maryb
    Where's Private Fraser when you need him?
    It doesn't matter if you are a glass half full or half empty sort of person. Keep it topped up! Cheers!
    • Nargleblast
    • By Nargleblast 5th Aug 18, 8:39 PM
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    Nargleblast
    I hear you, maryb , and now I think is a good time to revisit the purpose and theme of this thread as stated in post 1, I.e. what preps can be made to make things easier, less expensive and less disruptive when Brexit does happen. I would advise anyone who wishes to debate the pros and cons, the rights and wrongs etc that there is an active Brexit thread on the Discussion Time forum which covers just about everything Brexit related, and the regulars there are more than happy to debate with fresh blood.
    One life - your life - live it!


    NSD challenge October. 11/20
    • maryb
    • By maryb 5th Aug 18, 8:41 PM
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    maryb
    Just picking up on one point - As far as I am aware the tunnel is still owned/operated by an Anglo French joint structure with a very complicated set of rules to ensure that the shares in the French Company and the shares in the UK company can only ever be sold as a pair. The UK did sell its stake in Eurostar, ie the high speed train service, but that is different to Eurotunnel.
    It doesn't matter if you are a glass half full or half empty sort of person. Keep it topped up! Cheers!
    • Saipan
    • By Saipan 5th Aug 18, 10:06 PM
    • 35 Posts
    • 292 Thanks
    Saipan
    IIRC the Prepping thread - a new beginning came about after a similar discussion between posters on whether or not it should include political / current affairs viewpoints, and a voting system was put in place by moderators in order to reach a decision. The majority voted to include posts with political and similar content. Perhaps the same thing should be put in place for this thread? Or alternatively a second Prepping for Brexit thread started so that all viewpoints can be included?


    Threads in an open forum - particularly on a subject like prepping for Brexit, which will mean different things to different people - are inevitably going to develop organically in many different directions.
    Surely all views add to everyone's learning and perspective?








































    Personally, my prepping priorities are medium/long-term - for example, ensuring that we are as professionally well qualified as possible / as competitive as possible in terms of employment, so that we are in a strong position to retain good jobs whatever may or may not happen. I am also very, very concerned about the dire state of public services - I am a senior manager in local authority crisis services and any additional pressure or disruption, however it is caused, will impact appallingly on many of the most vulnerable families, which in turn impacts adversely on society. Others will have different priorities based on different viewpoints, which I would like to know more about - the more the merrier imo.
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 5th Aug 18, 11:17 PM
    • 4,357 Posts
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    zeupater
    I hear you, maryb , and now I think is a good time to revisit the purpose and theme of this thread as stated in post 1, I.e. what preps can be made to make things easier, less expensive and less disruptive when Brexit does happen. I would advise anyone who wishes to debate the pros and cons, the rights and wrongs etc that there is an active Brexit thread on the Discussion Time forum which covers just about everything Brexit related, and the regulars there are more than happy to debate with fresh blood.
    Originally posted by Nargleblast
    Hi

    I tend to agree, furthermore, it must be remembered that any form of contingency planning must really be based on a two axis chart plotting impact vs probability ... and that's what's being overlooked by so many when discussing preparations for Brexit - asking the basic questions ....

    - Is the Impact of not being able to buy something in particular high, or low?
    ...
    - Is the Probability of not being able to buy something in particular high, or low?

    If both the impact & probability are deemed high, simply build a stock of those items to mitigate the impact, everything else can be seen as a lower priority ... remember, most foodstuff & other goods have an alternative which would be acceptable to most people & most goods sourced from the EU can be re-sourced from other countries, so anything which would suffer a serious disruption would likely only do so in the short term until retailers sort out their own supply chains ....

    Most posting on these threads have a contingency stock for various reasons, so why is Brexit seen as being a bigger issue than (say) being snowed in or being ill for a couple of months? ...

    Ourselves, well we might build a larger than normal stock of Italian tinned tomatoes,dried pasta & olive oil amongst a few other items on the basis that there may be a short-term logistics issue and forgo a number of imported perishable fresh fruit, salad & veg if not available in the UK because of no alternative source or seasonality issues, but really, things must be seen & placed into context ...

    We buy our meat from local butchers and usually know the farms & farmers that it came from & the vast majority of fresh veg is bought directly from the farm or local market - a good proportion of what we eat grows within a few miles of where I'm sitting now ... it's only really things like fresh citrus fruit & tomatoes (etc) that we'd see any reasonable likelihood of having a short-term supply issue on, but as supply from alternative sources (Morocco, USA, Israel, South Africa etc) are readily available as well as there really being no particular hardship in considering seasonal foods in a old-fashioned way ... 'seasonal' ... just modify the weekly menu & consume what's available!

    HTH
    Z
    Last edited by zeupater; 06-08-2018 at 3:51 PM. Reason: + 'm
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    • maryb
    • By maryb 6th Aug 18, 6:22 AM
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    maryb
    Ultra sensible post. On your probability axis, I think there is a medium risk of price increases rising to a high risk in the short term next March if there is no deal

    Doing a bit of extra stocking up now, while there are no shortages, seems to me unlikely to lead to price rises and it's more likely the supermarkets will simply welcome any extra volume. That would change if they can't meet demand. But it's hard to disentangle from the effect of the pound weakening

    I'm doing some general stocking up already partly to avoid price rises and mainly because I always build up my stores in autumn. We live on a very steep hill, I have bad osteoporosis and if it's icy out I like the flexibility of not having to go out for a few days
    It doesn't matter if you are a glass half full or half empty sort of person. Keep it topped up! Cheers!
    • Honey Bear
    • By Honey Bear 6th Aug 18, 8:26 AM
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    Honey Bear
    Does anyone on this thread volunteer for foodbanks?

    Just wondering what help will be available to people who are unable to stock up ie those who are using foodbanks already and how foodbanks will cope with their usual demand plus extra with likely far fewer donations?

    Do foodbanks have a plan?

    What can we do to help?
    Originally posted by oceanspirit

    Foodbanks rely on donations.

    You'd have to ask the Trussel Trust what plans it has to deal with the scenario you're describing, or contact your local foodbank to ask them if it's an independent one.
    Last edited by Honey Bear; 06-08-2018 at 10:27 AM.
    Keeping it AF
    • maryb
    • By maryb 6th Aug 18, 11:01 AM
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    maryb
    I'm planning on making a cash donation under Gift Aid in about January so that they can fill any gaps in what people donate. They tend to give out fairly shelf stable stuff anyway so that shouldn't be too far in advance
    It doesn't matter if you are a glass half full or half empty sort of person. Keep it topped up! Cheers!
    • MrsStepford
    • By MrsStepford 6th Aug 18, 3:13 PM
    • 161 Posts
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    MrsStepford
    I had a delivery from ASDA with organic Extra Virgin olive oil at 2.50. The Sun leaked a Government plan saying that processed food would be stockpiled, the Guardian followed the next day. Did another ASDA order same day, the identical product was up to 3.24.

    Frankly, I don't believe that supermarkets would ever NOT seize an opportunity to make a profit. Also, if suppliers can't suddenly increase the amount of food they are packaging, making or importing, then supermarkets will use price as a control. If the price goes up, only the people who can afford the price rise will buy the product and demand falls.

    It does seem to me, that Remainers get challenged everywhere and too many ludicrous claims by politicians and Leavers get accepted as being gospel.

    Example being Governor of the Bank of England. He was born in Canada, yes. He went to Oxford twice, is a British citizen and has a British wife, yet politicians and Leavers alike show their ignorance with abuse at him as a foreigner, daily.

    Anything originating outside of the UK is at risk of being scarce. Not only that, there would be increased demand for the 60% of food we do produce here. Since we can't produce enough anyway, people thinking that British food would instantly be bountiful, are wide of the mark.

    The whole Blitz spirit rhetoric is astonishing.

    Re: shelf life.. because consumers don't want chemicals in food, manufacturers leave them out of all sorts of stuff. The only things I have found with dates for 2021 have been French-made corned beef from Prince's. The only items with 2022 dates have been wild salmon from John West.
    Last edited by MrsStepford; 06-08-2018 at 3:20 PM.
    • mattpaint
    • By mattpaint 6th Aug 18, 3:48 PM
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    mattpaint
    I think those of us who lived before the EU are far more realistic and relaxed re this whole thing. But I agree that prices of everything will rise, it's too good an excuse for them not to use.
    Originally posted by mardatha
    I think you're right but also those who lived before we joined the EU are likely to be older, be in receipt of a pension and have their houses paid off so not really in a position to be truly negatively affected by the serious consequences of Brexit. The younger, least well-off will be far more affected than the others.
    • maryb
    • By maryb 6th Aug 18, 3:49 PM
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    maryb
    Extra Virgin olive oil is still £2.19 in Lidl. MySupermarket shows it as being 8% below its average price. Sainsbury's is 5% below its average price. Tesco has Napolina extra virgin olive oil on offer at 22% below average price. In fact there are numerous offers on extra virgin olive oil in all the supermarkets at present. If your organic Extra Virgin Olive Oil was £2.50 last time you bought it and has now gone up in price, then it was probably an offer which has now ended.

    There are several offers on tinned tomatoes as well. And where they are not on offer MySupermarket mostly shows the price as being the same as average. In fact that website will flag up straightaway if any of the supermarkets are profiteering

    And there really is no need to look for food with a useby of 2020 or beyond. It might be chaotic for a few weeks. Not months, certainly not years. The French will gloat at any difficulties we have to start with. Then their farmers will start to get very unhappy if they lose a market for their produce and it will get sorted. It will probably be presented as them saving us from the consequences of Brexit but hey

    You are quite right. This is not the Blitz. We are not going to be cut off from supplies of food in Europe with the Germans stopping us getting onions from the Channel Islands
    It doesn't matter if you are a glass half full or half empty sort of person. Keep it topped up! Cheers!
    • MrsLurcherwalker
    • By MrsLurcherwalker 6th Aug 18, 4:33 PM
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    MrsLurcherwalker
    Why is the whole idea of just getting on with things and making the best life possible from what is available so impossible to grasp? NO it isn't the war and it isn't going to be easy or comfortable if things are disrupted and no doubt we all, including me, will be grumpy if we can't get what we're used to when we want it because we're used to having things instantly and constantly available from multiple shopping outlets everywhere. We'll all have to grow up a bit and put our big girls pants on and act like adults not infants and that includes quite a few pensioners that I know who will be equally as miffed as some of the younger members of the UK because they like the life they currently have and don't want changes. We don't always get in life what we want fact! and shouting 'unfair' isn't going to change a single thing, what IS needed is not 'blitz spirit' but 'any spirit that doesn't give up and fail before it happens' we need belief and gumption and the attitude that says whatever happens we'll make it as good as we can.
    Thumpers mum was right - if you can't find anything nice to say don't say anything at all!
    • zeupater
    • By zeupater 6th Aug 18, 4:53 PM
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    zeupater
    Extra Virgin olive oil is still £2.19 in Lidl. MySupermarket shows it as being 8% below its average price. Sainsbury's is 5% below its average price. Tesco has Napolina extra virgin olive oil on offer at 22% below average price. In fact there are numerous offers on extra virgin olive oil in all the supermarkets at present. If your organic Extra Virgin Olive Oil was £2.50 last time you bought it and has now gone up in price, then it was probably an offer which has now ended.

    There are several offers on tinned tomatoes as well. And where they are not on offer MySupermarket mostly shows the price as being the same as average. In fact that website will flag up straightaway if any of the supermarkets are profiteering

    And there really is no need to look for food with a useby of 2020 or beyond. It might be chaotic for a few weeks. Not months, certainly not years. The French will gloat at any difficulties we have to start with. Then their farmers will start to get very unhappy if they lose a market for their produce and it will get sorted. It will probably be presented as them saving us from the consequences of Brexit but hey

    You are quite right. This is not the Blitz. We are not going to be cut off from supplies of food in Europe with the Germans stopping us getting onions from the Channel Islands
    Originally posted by maryb
    Hi

    Makes total sense to me ... what people need to realise is that as one trading door closes another opens, giving those already using the current doors plenty of reasons to ensure that they're left considerably more than 'ajar'!

    Okay, so the UK imports a considerable amount of our foodstuff, however by no means do all of those imports come from the EU & there are always alternative sources for goods that currently do .. in the majority of cases the removal of EU levels of import duties would result in food prices falling much closer to global averages ...

    Despite the application of EU import duties, produce from alternative sources like (say) Morocco have been competitive with EU supply for years. We often buy oranges, clementines, tangerines, lemons, tomatoes etc which are marked up as produce of Morocco ... same for 'out of season' new potatoes being from Egypt & Morocco well before our Jersey Royals first hit the shelves (normally at some time in April?) ...

    There will undoubtedly be initial logistical issues which could effect the supply of EU goods & opportunities for retailers to temporarily raise prices on some EU sourced perishable food if they believe that they can 'get away with it', but it's time that everyone understands that leaving the EU only really affects the logistics of foodstuff sourced from within the EU and that all of the talk of customs issues at Dover resulting in 'lorry parks & queues covering the whole of Kent' really only applies to a port that doesn't even rank within the top 10 UK agricultural produce & foodstuff ports ... to me this single fact suggests that potential issues at Dover in particular (due to Roll-On/Roll-Off reliance) suits the narrative of those still actively looking to reverse the outcome of the referendum ... we really do need to take a couple of deep breaths, apply a little logic (/common-sense) and see the scale of the issue for what it is ... problematic, but relatively minor :- despite what many are continually telling us!

    HTH
    Z
    Last edited by zeupater; 06-08-2018 at 4:59 PM.
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
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