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  • FIRST POST
    • Type 45
    • By Type 45 3rd Apr 18, 7:18 PM
    • 67Posts
    • 6Thanks
    Type 45
    Next recession, trade wars, up to 50% portfolio losses
    • #1
    • 3rd Apr 18, 7:18 PM
    Next recession, trade wars, up to 50% portfolio losses 3rd Apr 18 at 7:18 PM
    Anyone concerned?
Page 6
    • JohnRo
    • By JohnRo 7th Apr 18, 9:47 PM
    • 2,663 Posts
    • 2,485 Thanks
    JohnRo
    It's an unfolding scandal and one the FT and Telegraph amongst others have been reporting on since early this year. I'm reasonably confident they aren't on Putin's payroll?
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
    • ANGLICANPAT
    • By ANGLICANPAT 7th Apr 18, 11:55 PM
    • 1,153 Posts
    • 376 Thanks
    ANGLICANPAT
    It's an unfolding scandal and one the FT and Telegraph amongst others have been reporting on since early this year. I'm reasonably confident they aren't on Putin's payroll?
    Originally posted by JohnRo

    The sudden escalation of the situation hasnt really been picked up by the UK media yet. People are only remembering Neil Mitchells case got thrown out of court last year. Now his extensive research and tenacity has finally provided the vital evidence he needed hence the full interview on RT a few days ago.. I dont believe that what he's saying is influenced by the Russians , although if we are in the poo, Im sure RT is delighted to be broadcasting it .If Neil Mitchells information is correct, no-one can deny it does sound worrying .

    Lets say it IS all true and as big as the article makes it sound, how much would it impact on the economy and our investments etc?
    Last edited by ANGLICANPAT; 08-04-2018 at 12:00 AM.
    • JohnRo
    • By JohnRo 8th Apr 18, 1:03 AM
    • 2,663 Posts
    • 2,485 Thanks
    JohnRo
    There's no doubt RT are making hay with it, they wouldn't be doing their job properly if they weren't but that doesn't negate the story or mean it's not a serious matter. Anyone who can't entertain a channel like RT because it's propaganda is clearly oblivious to the irony.

    It provides a much needed counter to some of the good wholesome western propaganda and lopsided views at ten folks are expected to swallow whole, as well as some events that are ignored completely. I don't watch it very often but not allergic to it either in moderation.

    It sounds like the same problems are repeating, omnipotent bankers, competent regulators being bought off and brought in house etc. the whole cesspit hasn't changed much if at all since the last time they brought the financial world to it's knees, held the economy to ransom and then walked off with a pile of loot.

    As for impact, who knows, it'll likely take a US investigation to get to the bottom of it, this country is institutionally corrupt to the point it's difficult to know which way is up, they'll probably just end up paying a huge fine bribe and carry on like all the other banks do that are too big to fail.

    I don't think it'll cause a problem to the global economy in itself since the GRG is no longer around but they're still at it under a different guise so who knows. It'll probably end up being played out as a PPI v2 scandal or something but it's going to really sting the 'UK taxpayer' one way or another if the apparent scale of it is anything like accurate.

    What's really needed is the same thing that was needed in 2008, fat chance of that.
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
    • RobStaffs
    • By RobStaffs 8th Apr 18, 7:22 AM
    • 288 Posts
    • 46 Thanks
    RobStaffs
    I still think the FTSE will be closer to 8000 by the end of the year.
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 8th Apr 18, 9:42 AM
    • 4,221 Posts
    • 3,239 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    Linking the collapse of RBS and its business practises with Hillsborough - where 96 people were unlawfully killed - seems very odd at least, and at worst is offensive.
    Originally posted by IanManc
    People have been driven to suicide by the Royal Bank
    According to Branson's biography, Virgin nearly went bust when Nat West suddenly decided to call in its debts. He spent a weekend frantically borrowing money from other sources, if he hadn't suucceeded Nat West would have sunk Virgin like thousands of others.
    It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. --Upton Sinclair
    • ProDave
    • By ProDave 8th Apr 18, 10:39 AM
    • 1,058 Posts
    • 1,309 Thanks
    ProDave
    Reading this thread with interest.

    This is the FTSE100 for the last 20 years



    Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.

    For me (with some cash in a SIPP and a 5 year timescale) now is not the time to be buying. The bull market has gone on too long for this cycle already and it appears to be turning. It might well only be another small drop like 2015 and it will rise further, but for me the risk of falls looks higher than the risk of gains so I am keeping my cash.

    My view is perhaps swayed by the fact I struck lucky and sold my investments in order to transfer my pension to another provider and I by sheer luck did so very close to the top. Had I still been invested it would now be worth less than the cash that is sitting there. So I don't want to do anything to risk losing the previous gains I have locked in.
    • ColdIron
    • By ColdIron 8th Apr 18, 11:06 AM
    • 4,567 Posts
    • 5,860 Thanks
    ColdIron
    Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.
    Originally posted by ProDave
    I suppose 20 years worth of dividends might have increased your total returns a smidgen?
    • jamei305
    • By jamei305 8th Apr 18, 11:07 AM
    • 357 Posts
    • 422 Thanks
    jamei305
    Reading this thread with interest.

    This is the FTSE100 for the last 20 years



    Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.

    For me (with some cash in a SIPP and a 5 year timescale) now is not the time to be buying. The bull market has gone on too long for this cycle already and it appears to be turning. It might well only be another small drop like 2015 and it will rise further, but for me the risk of falls looks higher than the risk of gains so I am keeping my cash.

    My view is perhaps swayed by the fact I struck lucky and sold my investments in order to transfer my pension to another provider and I by sheer luck did so very close to the top. Had I still been invested it would now be worth less than the cash that is sitting there. So I don't want to do anything to risk losing the previous gains I have locked in.
    Originally posted by ProDave
    Your graph fails to take into account reinvested dividends.

    An FTSE 100 Acc fund would look like this in comparison:

    • dunstonh
    • By dunstonh 8th Apr 18, 11:21 AM
    • 94,539 Posts
    • 62,487 Thanks
    dunstonh
    20 years is probably not a good guide either as you are starting with a crash near the start (and ignoring the 10 years of growth that took place before that). You are then including a major depression in the middle and ending on a correction.

    Any snapshot in time can be manipulated to say different things. Move that snapshot a few years earlier and you get a totally different picture.
    I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). Comments are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.
    • IanManc
    • By IanManc 8th Apr 18, 11:22 AM
    • 653 Posts
    • 1,157 Thanks
    IanManc
    There's no doubt RT are making hay with it, they wouldn't be doing their job properly if they weren't but that doesn't negate the story or mean it's not a serious matter. Anyone who can't entertain a channel like RT because it's propaganda is clearly oblivious to the irony.
    Originally posted by JohnRo
    RT's job, and the reason that the Russian government fund it so heavily, is to undermine the West.

    I'm surprised that you don't understand that.

    The scandal at RBS has been rumbling on in the media for years - it hasn't just begun to be reported "since early this year". For example the unit within RBS which was supposed to be helping businesses that were in temporary financial trouble but which forced companies which were otherwise sound but had cashflow problems into bankruptcy because it made more money for RBS was highlighted by financial journalists and by the BBC on Moneybox on Radio 4 while it was happening.

    RT is adding nothing to the investigation of this story, just using it as propaganda. Anyone who is oblivious to that clearly doesn't understand very much at all.
    Last edited by IanManc; 08-04-2018 at 11:26 AM.
    • ProDave
    • By ProDave 8th Apr 18, 11:24 AM
    • 1,058 Posts
    • 1,309 Thanks
    ProDave
    ^^ which highlights how much better you would have done by selling in April 2000, buying back in in April 2003, then selling in April 2008 and buying back in in April 2009

    It also highlights with a short term timescale (5 years) if you had bought in April 1998 and just held, then selling in April 2003 you would have lost at least 20% so over that particular 5 years, cash would have been better.

    All I am saying is NOW does not look to be optimal timing to buy in. Time will tell who is right.For me, we appear to be at or close to the top. I just want the crash to happen sooner, so there is still time to buy in and ride the recovery in my short timescale.
    • ChesterDog
    • By ChesterDog 8th Apr 18, 11:27 AM
    • 888 Posts
    • 1,666 Thanks
    ChesterDog
    Reading this thread with interest.

    This is the FTSE100 for the last 20 years



    Run a straight line average through that, the gains are not spectacular. But buy in close to the bottom of the dips and sell close to the top and you would have done very well.

    For me (with some cash in a SIPP and a 5 year timescale) now is not the time to be buying. The bull market has gone on too long for this cycle already and it appears to be turning. It might well only be another small drop like 2015 and it will rise further, but for me the risk of falls looks higher than the risk of gains so I am keeping my cash.

    My view is perhaps swayed by the fact I struck lucky and sold my investments in order to transfer my pension to another provider and I by sheer luck did so very close to the top. Had I still been invested it would now be worth less than the cash that is sitting there. So I don't want to do anything to risk losing the previous gains I have locked in.
    Originally posted by ProDave
    The domination of the FTSE 100 in 'lay' UK investment thinking, and the overlooking of the huge effect of compounding dividends when 'examining' its performance has a lot to answer for, in my view.

    It is a discouragement to potential investors and sits upon the first page of the first chapter of their discovery process.

    It's like assessing the usefulness of savings accounts by picking a poorly performing one and then disregarding any interest payments it generates anyway.
    I am one of the Dogs of the Index.
    • JohnRo
    • By JohnRo 8th Apr 18, 11:44 AM
    • 2,663 Posts
    • 2,485 Thanks
    JohnRo
    RT's job, and the reason that the Russian government fund it so heavily, is to undermine the West.

    I'm surprised that you don't understand that.

    The scandal at RBS has been rumbling on in the media for years - it hasn't just begun to be reported "since early this year". For example the unit within RBS which was supposed to be helping businesses that were in temporary financial trouble but which forced companies which were otherwise sound but had cashflow problems into bankruptcy because it made more money for RBS was highlighted by financial journalists and by the BBC on Moneybox on Radio 4 while it was happening.

    RT is adding nothing to the investigation of this story, just using it as propaganda. Anyone who is oblivious to that clearly doesn't understand very much at all.
    Originally posted by IanManc
    Honestly, the same applies to views at ten.. there's no lack of understanding on my part. I'm not defending RT, I know what it's doing, that doesn't make it worthless and there's value in having slanted views and opinions challenged.

    Better than just filtering out everything that doesn't agree with a desired world view, if interested in truth and justice.

    Anyway this particular story is in the process of unfolding, with or without RT, so that's just a distraction.
    'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB
    • thenewcomer
    • By thenewcomer 9th Apr 18, 6:36 AM
    • 97 Posts
    • 21 Thanks
    thenewcomer
    Yes I was concerned.

    I have, in the last few days, moved out of investments completely and moved into cash. When I have time to catch my breath I will also move some cash into precious metals.

    I may be wrong and the coming crash will not be for a few years, if ever. After all, unlike markets before, this already long, bull run could just keep on going. If I am wrong I will have missed out on any future increases in the market.

    However, if I am right then my cash giving me only a little more than 1% interest easily beats a downturn of 5% in the markets.

    If you think that there will be a serious downturn in the markets, why would you just stand there and watch your personal investments go the same way.
    Originally posted by Matthew2018
    what precious metals and in what form? paper or physical?
    Aim to retire by 45.
    • slapmatt
    • By slapmatt 9th Apr 18, 10:33 AM
    • 101 Posts
    • 1,072 Thanks
    slapmatt
    This has been doing the rounds on FB, and worries me some - I was already aware about the problems with RBS but hadnt realized the extent of the problem till I saw this. Looks quite bad , and I wondered if it would affect investments much - but perhaps storm in a T cup?Surprised Teresa May hasnt answered the letter sent to her.

    https://www.rt.com/shows/renegade-inc/422961-scotland-bank-economic-taxpayer/
    Originally posted by ANGLICANPAT
    I don't think Neil Mitchell is a particularly reliable source of unbiased information about RBS.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ecc6d949-1832-389f-b04d-00333bdb890f
    • ANGLICANPAT
    • By ANGLICANPAT 9th Apr 18, 1:16 PM
    • 1,153 Posts
    • 376 Thanks
    ANGLICANPAT
    I don't think Neil Mitchell is a particularly reliable source of unbiased information about RBS.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ecc6d949-1832-389f-b04d-00333bdb890f
    Originally posted by slapmatt

    Thats a year old - the position appears to have moved on considerably . Time will tell I suppose, how serious or not it has become.
    • Malthusian
    • By Malthusian 9th Apr 18, 2:15 PM
    • 4,651 Posts
    • 7,435 Thanks
    Malthusian
    Honestly, the same applies to views at ten..
    Originally posted by JohnRo
    The News at Ten is run by public sector officials in a democracy who have a remit to be independent of the state, and to take a balanced view. We all know their idea of what is a balanced view is a little skewed. But it still makes them very different from an outfit whose objective is to proclaim the glory of the Putin regime, whose only concern is to preserve the wealth he and his cronies stole from the Russian people during the chaos of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    If I read in Russia Today that the sky was blue I'd want verification from an independent source.

    The idea that there is a scandal afoot in RBS' corporate restructuring department is true. Everyone has known that for years (everyone who took an interest). The idea that this is something we should specifically be concerned about right now comes from the Kremlin, and should be viewed as b******s until proven otherwise.
    • dividendhero
    • By dividendhero 9th Apr 18, 6:15 PM
    • 263 Posts
    • 276 Thanks
    dividendhero
    RT's job, and the reason that the Russian government fund it so heavily, is to undermine the West.
    Originally posted by IanManc
    I don't see it that way, the wealth of Russia's elite is held in the West - they don't want to foul their own nest
    • A_T
    • By A_T 9th Apr 18, 7:03 PM
    • 524 Posts
    • 357 Thanks
    A_T
    I don't see it that way, the wealth of Russia's elite is held in the West - they don't want to foul their own nest
    Originally posted by dividendhero
    They send their money west but it all comes from their oil at home. Trying to shape the governments of the West is what they're all about. The money is safe.
    • Glen Clark
    • By Glen Clark 10th Apr 18, 7:41 AM
    • 4,221 Posts
    • 3,239 Thanks
    Glen Clark
    The News at Ten is run by public sector officials in a democracy
    Originally posted by Malthusian
    Democracy?
    When did we elect the Head of State and Hangers On, or the absurdly over-populated House of Lords? (bigger than the whole of the EU Parliament for 27 countries)
    - both of which have power of veto over the 'democratically elected' who are held up by bribes to buy DUP votes.
    An unbiased media would give at least equal coverage to the campaign for an elected Head of State, as it gives to Royal Births and Weddings etc.
    It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. --Upton Sinclair
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