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  • FIRST POST
    • stphnstevey
    • By stphnstevey 9th Mar 18, 8:18 PM
    • 2,790Posts
    • 458Thanks
    stphnstevey
    Equities Strategy
    • #1
    • 9th Mar 18, 8:18 PM
    Equities Strategy 9th Mar 18 at 8:18 PM
    There seems to be a fair number of intelligent investors on here that have turned there hand to equities

    How do you invest in equities and what strategies do you use?
Page 3
    • ValiantSon
    • By ValiantSon 11th Mar 18, 10:47 AM
    • 1,867 Posts
    • 1,725 Thanks
    ValiantSon
    Well l provided a link to the top 25 fund managers with their returns.... If you think they are great good luck to you.
    Originally posted by inflationbuster
    Another straw man argument. Where did I say that the 25 funds you linked to were, "great"?

    You made a ridiculous claim that fund returns were paltry. You haven't provided any valid justification for this. Accepting that what you said was hyperbole would be dignified: presenting straw man arguments to defend it isn't.
    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 11th Mar 18, 11:00 AM
    • 465 Posts
    • 240 Thanks
    TBC15
    It wasn't you I meant, Alex.

    Our posts crossed.

    Genuinely interested to see results of the different strategies, even if short term.
    Originally posted by ChesterDog
    You need to look here, The GBIO http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5719527
    Do feel free to join.
    • ChesterDog
    • By ChesterDog 11th Mar 18, 11:31 AM
    • 878 Posts
    • 1,643 Thanks
    ChesterDog
    You need to look here, The GBIO http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5719527
    Do feel free to join.
    Originally posted by TBC15
    Thank, I know about that.

    I was particularly looking for Inflationbuster's self-picked equity performance, to compare both with my own funds' performance and that of the chart which was linked.
    I am one of the Dogs of the Index.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 11th Mar 18, 12:21 PM
    • 1,826 Posts
    • 1,171 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    League tables of funds are worse than useless because they don't tell you about future performance
    and it's usually the inexperienced or unsophisticated investor who thinks of investing as a horse race. The only things you need to achieve are your own financial goals, you aren't competing against the people on this forum or Mr. Woodford. If a 2% annual return will meet your needs then you can get that with very little risk and you'd be foolish to have a very risky portfolio.

    Personally I had a 60/40 equity to bond tracker fund portfolio for 25 years (its now closer to 70/30) and that averaged 8.5% annual return.......people should be making their plans based on historical market returns of 5% to 6%, not on the recent performance of equities or a "top 25" list.
    Last edited by bostonerimus; 11-03-2018 at 12:23 PM.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 11th Mar 18, 2:23 PM
    • 58,476 Posts
    • 51,849 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    I really only started investing post 2008, and then took a while to establish how I would go about it.

    So I'm not suggesting those figures maintain through thick and thin, simply that investing in funds does not mean you have to accept poor returns.

    Percentage returns for previous years (heading backwards from 2017)...

    20, 34, 9, 21, 22, 3, -3, 3

    I don't change things about very much (just peripheral stuff) and Trustnet is currently showing annualised returns of: 1 year 20.9, 3 years 20.9, 5 years 21.2.

    It's all equities (in OEICs and ITs). I hold quite a bit of cash, plus p2p, shared BTL and others to spread the risk.
    Originally posted by ChesterDog
    Let's revisit this topic. When you've some more decades of investing experience under your belt. As you've yet to encounter an extended period of market underperformance. With Central Banks influencing markets, the past decade has been somewhat unusal to say the least. As hasn't required any great skill to make money if you've the capital to invest. You'll find that many investors are akin to buffalo. Safety in numbers , stick with the herd.

    Stock markets just happen to be the current fad. Like everything in life. Markets are cyclical. When confidence evaporates. So will prices of many stocks. As there's few gems out there. There's an lot of underperforming dross. That is simply being dragged higher by the forced buying of index funds. Creating a self perpetuating cycle that some investors have mistaken for the holy grail.
    Last edited by Thrugelmir; 11-03-2018 at 2:33 PM.
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • ChesterDog
    • By ChesterDog 11th Mar 18, 3:25 PM
    • 878 Posts
    • 1,643 Thanks
    ChesterDog
    Oh, I am certainly not in a 'stocks (or funds) are a holy grail' camp.

    Witness how many non-equity investments I also hold.

    I hold over ten years worth of outgoings in cash for that very reason.

    Indeed, looking at longterm historical returns on equities, I felt that lots of research and some reasonably favourable winds might produce an annualised double-digit return above inflation.

    And I have been through the financial crisis with investments, but they were managed then by a third party.

    So I have been around the block quite a bit.

    Again, I wasn't making out that good returns are easy or reliable, simply that the statement that funds deliver paltry returns (and individual equities will trounce them) is easily countered.
    I am one of the Dogs of the Index.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 11th Mar 18, 4:27 PM
    • 1,826 Posts
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    bostonerimus
    Witness how many non-equity investments I also hold.

    I hold over ten years worth of outgoings in cash for that very reason.
    Originally posted by ChesterDog
    I agree that people should be diversified; cash, bonds and real estate are complimentary to equities. I bought an income property 20 years ago and it now produces half of my retirement income. Having that takes a lot of pressure of my equity and bond portfolio....well in reality the pressure is off me as I don't fret about the markets.

    Indeed, looking at longterm historical returns on equities, I felt that lots of research and some reasonably favourable winds might produce an annualised double-digit return above inflation.
    That's being far too optimistic, you'd be better to plan on 6% return after inflation.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 11th Mar 18, 4:43 PM
    • 58,476 Posts
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    Thrugelmir
    That's being far too optimistic, you'd be better to plan on 6% return after inflation.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    With income reinvested the past century is only an average of 5%.

    Only around 800 out of the 25,000 US listed stocks. Have actually beaten inflation in the past 30 years. What people assume to be the case often isn't. Likewise bonds have been in a 30 year bull market. As interest rates have fallen. Complacency is an investors worst enemy.

    More interestingly stock prices isn't reflecting actual company financial performance. How much of the rise in the major tracker funds is down to the holdings in the FAANG stocks?
    Last edited by Thrugelmir; 11-03-2018 at 4:48 PM.
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • Prism
    • By Prism 11th Mar 18, 4:50 PM
    • 335 Posts
    • 253 Thanks
    Prism
    Indeed, looking at longterm historical returns on equities, I felt that lots of research and some reasonably favourable winds might produce an annualised double-digit return above inflation.
    .
    Originally posted by ChesterDog
    For what its worth, the S&P has returned 5.96% above inflation and the Nikkei 5.84% above inflation over the last 50 years. These both assume dividends are reinvested.
    Over the last 20 years its only 4.4% and 1.7%. Now you could do better than that probably by investing in smaller companies but pushing it up to double digits might be asking a bit much.
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 11th Mar 18, 4:53 PM
    • 58,476 Posts
    • 51,849 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    the Nikkei 5.84% above inflation over the last 50 years.
    Originally posted by Prism
    What's the Nikkei over the past 30 years?
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • ChesterDog
    • By ChesterDog 11th Mar 18, 4:56 PM
    • 878 Posts
    • 1,643 Thanks
    ChesterDog
    I agree, but I did say "with reasonably favourable winds", and I am seeking above-market returns.

    Which is not to say that I expect to achieve them consitently or over a long period, simply that I am seeking them.

    Edit: although that's heading a bit off-topic as far as the point I was making goes.
    I am one of the Dogs of the Index.
    • Prism
    • By Prism 11th Mar 18, 5:00 PM
    • 335 Posts
    • 253 Thanks
    Prism
    What's the Nikkei over the past 30 years?
    Originally posted by Thrugelmir
    As if you didn't know
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 11th Mar 18, 5:07 PM
    • 1,826 Posts
    • 1,171 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    I agree, but I did say "with reasonably favourable winds", and I am seeking above-market returns.

    Which is not to say that I expect to achieve them consitently or over a long period, simply that I am seeking them.

    Edit: although that's heading a bit off-topic as far as the point I was making goes.
    Originally posted by ChesterDog
    We all hope for the best and the optimistic, or maybe self deluded among us, think they can beat the market. Your plans should be based on historical market returns and the careful investor will actually plan on getting a bit less.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
    • ChesterDog
    • By ChesterDog 11th Mar 18, 5:27 PM
    • 878 Posts
    • 1,643 Thanks
    ChesterDog
    We all hope for the best and the optimistic, or maybe self deluded among us, think they can beat the market. Your plans should be based on historical market returns and the careful investor will actually plan on getting a bit less.
    Originally posted by bostonerimus
    There seems to be an impression that I am on a diffetent songsheet than this.

    I am not.

    I would be quite content with market returns, and plesantly surprised if I continue to beat them longterm.

    The careful investor may well plan on getting a bit less, but surely won't seek to do so. For my part, I can afford at least to seek better: equities are just one of several baskets after all.

    I do also hold Vanguard's FTSE Global All-cap fund - that is what I regard as my benchmark. As time goes by, I intend to slowly and progressively gravitate towards it as a primary holding.
    I am one of the Dogs of the Index.
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 11th Mar 18, 5:29 PM
    • 58,476 Posts
    • 51,849 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    As if you didn't know
    Originally posted by Prism
    Actually I don't.

    Though obviously has been poor.

    I can remember when it was first possible to invest in Japanese shares. Wasn't possible to own direct. We transacted business through Extel on a nominee basis.

    In time they'll become flavour of the month again. Just as the large US Corporations currently dominate.
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • Prism
    • By Prism 11th Mar 18, 5:50 PM
    • 335 Posts
    • 253 Thanks
    Prism
    Actually I don't.

    Though obviously has been poor.

    I can remember when it was first possible to invest in Japanese shares. Wasn't possible to own direct. We transacted business through Extel on a nominee basis.

    In time they'll become flavour of the month again. Just as the large US Corporations currently dominate.
    Originally posted by Thrugelmir
    Its pretty bad - I am using this calculator https://dqydj.com/nikkei-return-calculator-dividend-reinvestment/

    If you were a local investor in Yen its a shocking 0.5% annualised after inflation. If you were an international investor in dollars its a truly poor -0.9% annualised.

    My best performing fund of recent years is my Japan fund and I do think that there is a robotics and automation revolution beginning to get some steam which should benefit Japanese companies.
    • inflationbuster
    • By inflationbuster 11th Mar 18, 8:24 PM
    • 164 Posts
    • 45 Thanks
    inflationbuster
    Its important to note that the 2008 crash is included in those 10 year figures. If we took Nick Train's 9 year annualized return it looks much better at 21.8%
    Originally posted by Prism
    Fair enough i'll take back my paltry returns statement in this case. Nick can be my wingman anytime.

    Accepting that what you said was hyperbole
    Originally posted by ValiantSon
    Per above. Regardless l wouldn't invest in a fund right now.
    Last edited by inflationbuster; 11-03-2018 at 8:29 PM.
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 11th Mar 18, 8:43 PM
    • 58,476 Posts
    • 51,849 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    My best performing fund of recent years is my Japan fund and I do think that there is a robotics and automation revolution beginning to get some steam which should benefit Japanese companies.
    Originally posted by Prism
    Was the Japanese that originally led the automated machine tool revolution. 30 years ago 250k would buy a (tape) programable machine that utilising a 132 different tool pieces could produce a torpedo nose cone out of a solid block. Shows how far technology has advanced since then.
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • TBC15
    • By TBC15 12th Mar 18, 12:42 AM
    • 465 Posts
    • 240 Thanks
    TBC15
    Fair enough i'll take back my paltry returns statement in this case. Nick can be my wingman anytime.



    Per above. Regardless l wouldn't invest in a fund right now.
    Originally posted by inflationbuster

    That young Zulu Mark Slater also knows a thing or two about shares.
    Last edited by TBC15; 12-03-2018 at 12:51 AM.
    • bostonerimus
    • By bostonerimus 12th Mar 18, 3:02 AM
    • 1,826 Posts
    • 1,171 Thanks
    bostonerimus
    Per above. Regardless l wouldn't invest in a fund right now.
    Originally posted by inflationbuster
    There's a market timer/stock picker born every day.
    Misanthrope in search of similar for mutual loathing
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