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  • FIRST POST
    • MrsGizzard
    • By MrsGizzard 7th Mar 18, 4:07 PM
    • 8Posts
    • 2Thanks
    MrsGizzard
    Something fishy
    • #1
    • 7th Mar 18, 4:07 PM
    Something fishy 7th Mar 18 at 4:07 PM
    Just decided to get a full buildings survey on my own home. The first local surveyor I called was the company who (unbeknownst to me) did our buyer’s valuation survey, only they sent someone from Rutland (about an hour away), even though their local office is in town. (And the Beast from the East was choking the A1).

    They share offices and services with an estate agent who happens to be representing the people opposite, who can’t shift their house. Ours was marketed at £305K (although EA recommended £315K) and got full price at £305K after one viewing. Theirs is on at £325K. Anyway, the valuation came in at £295K.

    They’re RICS, so independent. But I think it’s all a bit fishy. But can’t think what the point of suppressing our property price would be. But when discussing it with them, (until they realised it was them who’d done the survey), they were bemused because there’s some kind of 8% tolerance, which seemed not to have been applied.

    Any thoughts?
Page 2
    • bobbymotors
    • By bobbymotors 11th Mar 18, 8:04 PM
    • 629 Posts
    • 872 Thanks
    bobbymotors
    Good old crashy.

    Still deluded.
    Still predicting an imminent crash
    Still trawling the net for the slightest evidence

    Still renting too....
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 11th Mar 18, 8:16 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    Good old crashy.

    Still deluded.
    Still predicting an imminent crash
    Still trawling the net for the slightest evidence

    Still renting too....
    Originally posted by bobbymotors

    Lets face it, you don`t have to trawl far these days


    http://uk.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-stocks-most-at-risk-from-rising-interest-rates-2018-3?r=US&IR=T/#11-freenet-1


    Just swop "Firms" for "UK Households" and you get the picture I think......I reckon a fair few of the Price Police on here will be crying in their soup when rates actually do rise
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 11th Mar 18, 8:18 PM
    • 9,393 Posts
    • 10,376 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    Too complicated. Near zero rates were needed to keep the property market afloat, moving away from those rate levels sinks the market, it isn`t that difficult to suss out.
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    So you've merely added another set of evidence-fitting.
    Interest rates being lowered = crash imminent this is the only thing that will stop it.
    Interest rates being raised = crash imminent nothing will stop it.

    Is there in fact any event that would cause you to believe a crash is not imminent?
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 11th Mar 18, 8:22 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    So you've merely added another set of evidence-fitting.
    Interest rates being lowered = crash imminent this is the only thing that will stop it.
    Interest rates being raised = crash imminent nothing will stop it.

    Is there in fact any event that would cause you to believe a crash is not imminent?
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe

    The membership of the discussion forum doubling to 12 over-leveraged landlords?
    • buggy_boy
    • By buggy_boy 11th Mar 18, 10:06 PM
    • 404 Posts
    • 268 Thanks
    buggy_boy
    The membership of the discussion forum doubling to 12 over-leveraged landlords?
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    Agh yes the old anyone disagreeing with you is an over-leveraged landlord... Well yes im a landlord, but only have 15% LTV, so hardly over-leveraged. So come on you still wont say how much rent have you paid in your life, what was the price of houses when you started rented... You must need a crash so big that people give you money to take their property just for you to break even... The irony of you trying to give advice of not buying where if you had ignored your advice years ago you would be so much better off I guess is lost on you.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 12th Mar 18, 11:33 AM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens


    The problem with bubbles is buying at the wrong time though, the bigger the price the bigger the risk you take
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 12th Mar 18, 11:52 AM
    • 9,393 Posts
    • 10,376 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    Though there is a risk not buying also, its not a one way thing, theres a risk whatever you do.
    You must be well aware of the risk of not buying.
    How much would someone have to pay you to take their house to negate the effect of your choice 20 years ago?

    The sad thing is, its one thing to make a bad bet, anyone can do that, I"ve made a few.

    But usually people who make a bad bet say "dont do what i did..." whereas you are continually saying "do what i did" presumably to validate your bad choice 20 years ago.

    Its like speaking to a homeless drunk who recommends you nip into Tesco's and buy both of you a bottle of Johnny Walker each.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 12th Mar 18, 12:11 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    Though there is a risk not buying also, its not a one way thing, theres a risk whatever you do.
    You must be well aware of the risk of not buying.
    How much would someone have to pay you to take their house to negate the effect of your choice 20 years ago?

    The sad thing is, its one thing to make a bad bet, anyone can do that, I"ve made a few.

    But usually people who make a bad bet say "dont do what i did..." whereas you are continually saying "do what i did" presumably to validate your bad choice 20 years ago.

    Its like speaking to a homeless drunk who recommends you nip into Tesco's and buy both of you a bottle of Johnny Walker each.
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe

    Fantasy. You assume a world where people just buy a home and stay put for the rest of their lives, or "just rent it out" if they need to move for work etc. If you can`t find a buyer/tenant or the government decides your rental income is a good tax target the model breaks down and you are basically stuck with an albatross around your neck, and that load gets heavier as rates rise and prices drop.


    Rent is just a cost, and the key to feeling economically secure IMO is to work out your yearly costs, and aim to have many years worth of this cost saved/invested somewhere relatively safe. Of course you can do this while paying a mortgage but I believe the stats will show that most don`t, and instead just rely on their house ( a very illiquid asset at the mercy of credit conditions/rates and sentiment) being worth X amount at some vague point in the future, and of course being no problem to sell.
    (Well they did, I believe many have now woken up to the fact that we had a property bubble and that they won`t be able to cash out at a price they like)
    • Ozzuk
    • By Ozzuk 12th Mar 18, 12:25 PM
    • 1,318 Posts
    • 1,948 Thanks
    Ozzuk
    You nailed it Crashy, rent is just a cost, you are paying off someone's asset. With a mortgage you will own an asset at some point.

    Dress it anyway you like, with any number of articles, yes there are benefits to renting, as a financial decision, no.

    I'd also agree with your statement than most people won't save with a mortgage, but that is equally true for renters.

    You won't find a single case where renting benefits you in retirement over a mortgage - and if by some chance you do there are millions of examples where it doesn't.
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 12th Mar 18, 1:17 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    You nailed it Crashy, rent is just a cost, you are paying off someone's asset. With a mortgage you will own an asset at some point.

    Dress it anyway you like, with any number of articles, yes there are benefits to renting, as a financial decision, no.

    I'd also agree with your statement than most people won't save with a mortgage, but that is equally true for renters.

    You won't find a single case where renting benefits you in retirement over a mortgage - and if by some chance you do there are millions of examples where it doesn't.
    Originally posted by Ozzuk

    If you still have a number of years to go on the mortgage, or if you planned to sell to fund your retirement, it is going to be a bumpy ride, buckle up The funniest thing is that the MSM now spouts on a daily basis the sort of stuff only found on a certain website you guys love to hate only a few years ago
    • brentcloning
    • By brentcloning 12th Mar 18, 1:30 PM
    • 23 Posts
    • 15 Thanks
    brentcloning
    Lets face it, you don`t have to trawl far these days

    *Link removed*



    Just swop "Firms" for "UK Households" and you get the picture I think......I reckon a fair few of the Price Police on here will be crying in their soup when rates actually do rise
    Originally posted by Crashy Time

    I do enjoy that you only ever post to tabloid articles, no actual papers. Do you just Google "House price crash" and copy and paste the links that you find?
    • Ozzuk
    • By Ozzuk 12th Mar 18, 2:31 PM
    • 1,318 Posts
    • 1,948 Thanks
    Ozzuk
    If you still have a number of years to go on the mortgage, or if you planned to sell to fund your retirement, it is going to be a bumpy ride, buckle up The funniest thing is that the MSM now spouts on a daily basis the sort of stuff only found on a certain website you guys love to hate only a few years ago
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    I probably have less years to go on my mortgage than you have renting in front of you
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 12th Mar 18, 2:35 PM
    • 9,393 Posts
    • 10,376 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    If you still have a number of years to go on the mortgage, or if you planned to sell to fund your retirement, it is going to be a bumpy ride, buckle up The funniest thing is that the MSM now spouts on a daily basis the sort of stuff only found on a certain website you guys love to hate only a few years ago
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    I think very few people look to their house to fund their mortgage. I think they look to their house to live in. Why would paying a mortgage be a bumpy ride if house prices fall? Makes no odds. It would be no different to paying rent. Through my mortgages, house prices rose and fell. I continued to pay the mortgage as usual.

    So, like many, I'm now mortgage free in my own house and will continue to be so throughout my retirement. Even if my house halved in value overnight, I'd still be living rent free.
    Had you continued as you were 20 years ago, so would you be. As it is you are stuck with paying someone else's mortgage for the rest of your life, literally.

    That was a decision you took, very poor in retrospect especially since you had several opportunities to correct it. 1995, 2010 you could have bought as the market bottomed out after crashes. But you didn't.

    Why are you so keen everyone else should make the same mistake as you? So you dont look as inept as you have turned out to be?
    • AnotherJoe
    • By AnotherJoe 12th Mar 18, 2:47 PM
    • 9,393 Posts
    • 10,376 Thanks
    AnotherJoe
    Fantasy. You assume a world where people just buy a home and stay put for the rest of their lives, or "just rent it out" if they need to move for work etc.
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    I dont assume that at all. I think you are forced to assume that strawman so it fits your picture of why you haven't screwed up so catastrophically.

    You can always find a buyer. I've bought at peak and sold at bottom. House prices fall, the one you buy to replace it also costs less , its all relative
    Like most, I moved jobs, i sold houses, bought houses.
    We ended up owning them and not having to pay rent throughout retirement.
    The house next to me, FWIW is rented out at about 3x the most i ever paid on a mortgage. Even considering inflation, how is paying that throughout retirement a good plan?
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 12th Mar 18, 3:34 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
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    Crashy Time
    I dont assume that at all. I think you are forced to assume that strawman so it fits your picture of why you haven't screwed up so catastrophically.

    You can always find a buyer. I've bought at peak and sold at bottom. House prices fall, the one you buy to replace it also costs less , its all relative
    Like most, I moved jobs, i sold houses, bought houses.
    We ended up owning them and not having to pay rent throughout retirement.
    The house next to me, FWIW is rented out at about 3x the most i ever paid on a mortgage. Even considering inflation, how is paying that throughout retirement a good plan?
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe

    Really? Many would disagree I suspect, especially now. The house next to you isn`t the whole rental market, and you paid less on a mortgage because you paid less, much less, for the house than people are being asked to pay nowadays. The reality is that when global credit conditions change (they already have) the beliefs people have about property and property prices will change.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-09/why-it-matters-that-the-libor-ois-spread-is-widening-quicktake
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 12th Mar 18, 3:43 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    I think very few people look to their house to fund their mortgage. I think they look to their house to live in. Why would paying a mortgage be a bumpy ride if house prices fall? Makes no odds. It would be no different to paying rent. Through my mortgages, house prices rose and fell. I continued to pay the mortgage as usual.

    So, like many, I'm now mortgage free in my own house and will continue to be so throughout my retirement. Even if my house halved in value overnight, I'd still be living rent free.
    Had you continued as you were 20 years ago, so would you be. As it is you are stuck with paying someone else's mortgage for the rest of your life, literally.

    That was a decision you took, very poor in retrospect especially since you had several opportunities to correct it. 1995, 2010 you could have bought as the market bottomed out after crashes. But you didn't.

    Why are you so keen everyone else should make the same mistake as you? So you dont look as inept as you have turned out to be?
    Originally posted by AnotherJoe

    Most people with a mortgage (especially at recent prices) WILL have a bumpy ride as rates rise because they are already stretched to the limit, many people WILL be concerned that their house price is falling because they banked (literally) on it rising, and many many people don`t want to sit in the same house for half a century like you seem happy to do You are posting from the perspective of buying years ago, and from a decade of emergency interest rates, and also from not caring if you ever sell or if the house plummets in value! That is VERY unrepresentative of the average person with mortgage debt IMO. The only commonality the majority have with you is that they didn`t think interest rates would ever rise again
    • AdrianC
    • By AdrianC 12th Mar 18, 3:48 PM
    • 17,368 Posts
    • 15,703 Thanks
    AdrianC
    Most people with a mortgage (especially at recent prices) WILL have a bumpy ride as rates rise because they are already stretched to the limit
    Originally posted by Crashy Time
    Might we be forgetting about the more more rigorous affordability tests since the crash?
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 12th Mar 18, 3:50 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    Might we be forgetting about the more more rigorous affordability tests since the crash?
    Originally posted by AdrianC

    No, they are the reason sales volumes are collapsing.
    • kates08
    • By kates08 12th Mar 18, 4:11 PM
    • 76 Posts
    • 92 Thanks
    kates08
    I am usually a 'live and let live', everyone is entitled to their opinion kind of person, but Crashy you seem to delight in the thought of there being a housing market crash and people not being able to afford their homes.

    What sort of person to you have to be to wish that amount of misery and stress on millions of homeowners purely so that you can say 'I told you so'?
    • Crashy Time
    • By Crashy Time 12th Mar 18, 4:20 PM
    • 6,061 Posts
    • 2,345 Thanks
    Crashy Time
    I am usually a 'live and let live', everyone is entitled to their opinion kind of person, but Crashy you seem to delight in the thought of there being a housing market crash and people not being able to afford their homes.

    What sort of person to you have to be to wish that amount of misery and stress on millions of homeowners purely so that you can say 'I told you so'?
    Originally posted by kates08

    Only three kinds of people want housing to be priced at decades worth of debt for the average person, bankers (based on greed), those who bought a long time ago (greed and fear of "loss") and people who can`t think very deeply (just not very bright) The rest of us will be cheering wildly when the inevitable and much needed crash finally comes
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