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  • FIRST POST
    • aroominyork
    • By aroominyork 14th Feb 18, 1:18 PM
    • 450Posts
    • 133Thanks
    aroominyork
    Silly question time: one investment to buy NOW
    • #1
    • 14th Feb 18, 1:18 PM
    Silly question time: one investment to buy NOW 14th Feb 18 at 1:18 PM
    You have to buy one investment using 50% of your investment wealth to hold for ten years. You have to buy it in the next ten minutes which rules out OEICs but allows shares, ETFs, investment trusts, individual bonds etc. What would it be?

    I would go for Monks.

    (They’ll be waking up on the East coast where bostonerimus will presumably choose Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.)
Page 2
    • grey gym sock
    • By grey gym sock 14th Feb 18, 8:56 PM
    • 4,333 Posts
    • 3,864 Thanks
    grey gym sock
    Bear in mind the other 50% has to include your non-equity allocation as well as your non-US.
    Originally posted by aroominyork
    that is a bit awkward

    but i think VEVE is still the least bad choice for me, within these arbitrary rules.

    there are investment trusts which have regional allocations i prefer, and which i generally like, and hold a bit of in the real world (viz. MYI and BTEM). but i wouldn't want to put so much in either of them. that's too much concentrated manager risk.
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 14th Feb 18, 9:10 PM
    • 2,388 Posts
    • 1,789 Thanks
    Alexland
    i do also wonder whether scaling back the US allocation was such a good idea after all. but i reckon that, even if it won't do much good, it won't do much harm, either, so (in my real portfolio) i stick with it. in investing, changes of strategy should always be minimized.
    Originally posted by grey gym sock
    Vanguard's latest market outlook (bottom of page 24 below) is forecasting that US equities will return around 3% less per year than non-US equities over the next 10 years:

    https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/InvRes2018EcoMktSummary

    I found coastline's reassuring forward P/E graphs for the S&P500 interesting yesterday but the Shiller CAPE is a much more reliable tool. The US is looking expensive and that is likely to harm future returns.

    Alex
    • AlanP
    • By AlanP 14th Feb 18, 9:10 PM
    • 1,178 Posts
    • 850 Thanks
    AlanP
    Bitcoin - obviously
    • aroominyork
    • By aroominyork 14th Feb 18, 9:33 PM
    • 450 Posts
    • 133 Thanks
    aroominyork
    Come on guys. Post #18 was funny. Can I please have some ticks!
    • grey gym sock
    • By grey gym sock 14th Feb 18, 9:50 PM
    • 4,333 Posts
    • 3,864 Thanks
    grey gym sock
    Vanguard's latest market outlook (bottom of page 24 below) is forecasting that US equities will return around 3% less per year than non-US equities over the next 10 years:

    https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/InvRes2018EcoMktSummary

    I found coastline's reassuring forward P/E graphs for the S&P500 interesting yesterday but the Shiller CAPE is a much more reliable tool. The US is looking expensive and that is likely to harm future returns.
    Originally posted by Alexland
    http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-seeing-valuations-clearly?nopaging=1 is a good summary of reasons why the shiller CAPE isn't quite as scarily high as it might appear.

    though it does agree with the idea that returns are likely to be higher for shares outside the US.

    i suppose an alternative kind of single ETF to buy could be 1 covering developed markets ex-US. e.g. vanguard (in the US) have 1 for that (US ticker: VEA).

    is that a better option than VEVE? 0% US or 57% US?

    this is rather arbitrary, of course. my preferred answer is to scale back the US allocation, but not all the way to 0%.
    • grey gym sock
    • By grey gym sock 14th Feb 18, 9:52 PM
    • 4,333 Posts
    • 3,864 Thanks
    grey gym sock
    Bitcoin - obviously
    Originally posted by AlanP
    but can you get your purchase recorded in the blockchain within 10 minutes?
    • aroominyork
    • By aroominyork 14th Feb 18, 10:00 PM
    • 450 Posts
    • 133 Thanks
    aroominyork
    i think VEVE is still the least bad choice for me, within these arbitrary rules.
    Originally posted by grey gym sock
    this is rather arbitrary, of course. my preferred answer is to scale back the US allocation, but not all the way to 0%.
    Originally posted by grey gym sock
    Stop it with the arbitrary! This is mind-focusing investing.
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 14th Feb 18, 10:07 PM
    • 58,475 Posts
    • 51,848 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    The US is looking expensive and that is likely to harm future returns.
    Originally posted by Alexland
    How long can before the dominance of the US IT giants monopolies get broken?

    Asked rhetorically........
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • Alexland
    • By Alexland 14th Feb 18, 10:09 PM
    • 2,388 Posts
    • 1,789 Thanks
    Alexland
    i suppose an alternative kind of single ETF to buy could be 1 covering developed markets ex-US. e.g. vanguard (in the US) have 1 for that (US ticker: VEA).

    is that a better option than VEVE? 0% US or 57% US?

    this is rather arbitrary, of course. my preferred answer is to scale back the US allocation, but not all the way to 0%.
    Originally posted by grey gym sock
    Agreed which for a single holding solution for 10 years would lead me to something like the L&G MI series at circa 30% US but funds are not allowed in this thread.

    Alex
    • aroominyork
    • By aroominyork 14th Feb 18, 10:17 PM
    • 450 Posts
    • 133 Thanks
    aroominyork
    Agreed which for a single holding solution for 10 years would lead me to something like the L&G MI series at circa 30% US but funds are not allowed in this thread.
    Originally posted by Alexland
    To justify the rule, it's because it risked becoming another VLS thread. So, onwards...
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