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  • FIRST POST
    • nigecooper
    • By nigecooper 8th Feb 18, 3:06 PM
    • 1Posts
    • 0Thanks
    nigecooper
    Premium Bonds
    • #1
    • 8th Feb 18, 3:06 PM
    Premium Bonds 8th Feb 18 at 3:06 PM
    Martin keeps saying that your chance of winning a prize with Premium Bonds in a year is zero if you only have 1000. I understand his argument about the median win but it is misleading. A more accurate description would be to say that, if you have 1000 of bonds, you should only expect to win once every two years with average luck. Equally, holding 1, you would expect to win once every 2000 years!
    Last edited by nigecooper; 08-02-2018 at 3:07 PM. Reason: error in odds
Page 3
    • eskbanker
    • By eskbanker 25th Feb 18, 11:33 PM
    • 8,459 Posts
    • 9,588 Thanks
    eskbanker
    I think you may have missed the point I was making about semantics, namely that it doesn't really matter what label is given to a product, as this is clearly fairly arbitrary and dependent on the definitions people choose to use - it came across as if you were asserting that only products that fit within your definition of 'savings product' should be recommended to those wishing to save (and that products that you feel are in another category shouldn't), but to be fair you didn't actually spell that out in those terms so perhaps I've misunderstood.
    • concorde1966
    • By concorde1966 28th Apr 18, 10:43 AM
    • 16 Posts
    • 6 Thanks
    concorde1966
    I had 100 in PB!!!8217;s for 10 years and won nothing. I then put 11000 in Oct 2017 and won in Dec 17, Feb 18 and Mar 18 - 25 each time.
    I know someone though who had 100 and won 10,000!!!
    • concorde1966
    • By concorde1966 28th Apr 18, 10:50 AM
    • 16 Posts
    • 6 Thanks
    concorde1966
    I had 100 in PB for 10 years and won nothing. I then put 11000 in Oct 2017 and won in Dec 17, Feb 18 and Mar 18 - 25 each time.
    I know someone though who had 100 and won 10,000!!!
    • Thrugelmir
    • By Thrugelmir 28th Apr 18, 11:30 AM
    • 61,091 Posts
    • 54,315 Thanks
    Thrugelmir
    I had 100 in PB for 10 years and won nothing. I then put 11000 in Oct 2017 and won in Dec 17, Feb 18 and Mar 18 - 25 each time.
    Originally posted by concorde1966
    Which bonds won?
    Financial disasters happen when the last person who can remember what went wrong last time has left the building.
    • concorde1966
    • By concorde1966 28th Apr 18, 3:33 PM
    • 16 Posts
    • 6 Thanks
    concorde1966
    The 11,000 bond....each time
    • capital0ne
    • By capital0ne 28th Apr 18, 6:48 PM
    • 569 Posts
    • 271 Thanks
    capital0ne
    I've had the same bond win more twice! Only 50 each time and within a couple of years

    This month April my partner won 75, I won 0 - we are both maxed out. And before anyone starts I've maxed out both of our ISA's, all the usual high Interest bank accounts maxed out, some P2P and some stocks and shares in non-SA wrapper, its all fashioned to minimise tax and doing very well so much so I'm bordering on higher tax rate on my pensions!
    • stphnstevey
    • By stphnstevey 28th Apr 18, 8:55 PM
    • 2,888 Posts
    • 476 Thanks
    stphnstevey
    Does their website check them and notify you if you win?
    • ValiantSon
    • By ValiantSon 28th Apr 18, 11:02 PM
    • 2,536 Posts
    • 2,521 Thanks
    ValiantSon
    I've had the same bond win more twice! Only 50 each time and within a couple of years

    This month April my partner won 75, I won 0 - we are both maxed out. And before anyone starts I've maxed out both of our ISA's, all the usual high Interest bank accounts maxed out, some P2P and some stocks and shares in non-SA wrapper, its all fashioned to minimise tax and doing very well so much so I'm bordering on higher tax rate on my pensions!
    Originally posted by capital0ne
    Oh, do you have lots of money? You should have mentioned so in previous posts!
    • concorde1966
    • By concorde1966 13th Sep 18, 10:46 PM
    • 16 Posts
    • 6 Thanks
    concorde1966
    I have now had 11,600 in Premium bonds for 12 months and won 175 in total.
    Biggest win in one month was 25 x 3 all the rest were 25
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 14th Sep 18, 3:46 PM
    • 2,501 Posts
    • 1,990 Thanks
    talexuser
    My experience
    5k in 1999, over 198 months prizes were 1125, an AER of 1.36% - this is probably rubbish if you take inflation into account over 16 years?
    Then added a little
    over 4 months prizes = 0.75% of capital
    Then added a little
    over 6 months prizes = 0.75% of capital
    Then added a little
    over 9 months prizes = 0.64% of capital
    Then added a little
    over 6 months prizes = 1.0% of capital
    Then a large increase to max out temporarily while inheritance planning
    over 1 month prizes = 0.35% of capital
    partners maxed out temporarily over 1 month prizes = 0.25% of capital

    If you have all other bases covered, and wish to gamble a small fraction of the portfolio it's fair enough, but obviously no good for guaranteed returns.
    • talexuser
    • By talexuser 14th Sep 18, 3:49 PM
    • 2,501 Posts
    • 1,990 Thanks
    talexuser
    Also partner has had one bond since 1957 and won nothing
    • Whitterbod
    • By Whitterbod 14th Sep 18, 6:12 PM
    • 17 Posts
    • 3 Thanks
    Whitterbod
    Just a thousand pounds in preimium bonds, have had two twenty five wins ,,its there instead of the lottery, my luck might get better ,
    Thats a good idea thanks muchly..
    • bluefukurou
    • By bluefukurou 15th Sep 18, 8:40 AM
    • 75 Posts
    • 18 Thanks
    bluefukurou
    With Premium Bonds it's a case of horses for courses. I live overseas and cannot access ISAs, the best high street savings accounts, etc, so after maxing out the guaranteed income and growth bonds that NS&I offers, I decided to stick some money in PBs (30k), being someone who likes a flutter.

    Although I could have put the money into the Income Bonds that NS&I offers (which pays 1.15% from next month) and received a guaranteed 345 over the year, I opted for PBs knowing full well I may get nowt, but also aware that if I'm a bit lucky I may get back somewhere in the region of 700. There's also the chance, however small, that I could get one of the bigger prizes, somebody has to win them right?

    Therefore, as long as people understand that the 1.4% rate advertised on PBs is not a real interest rate, I think PBs are perfectly fine for someone wanting a safe way to save money with a bit of fun involved.
    • Shedman
    • By Shedman 15th Sep 18, 8:51 AM
    • 228 Posts
    • 137 Thanks
    Shedman
    Also partner has had one bond since 1957 and won nothing
    Originally posted by talexuser
    Ditto for me. Still.. this time next year Rodney..
    • Alex9
    • By Alex9 15th Sep 18, 10:03 AM
    • 2 Posts
    • 0 Thanks
    Alex9
    I've had 2k in sinceMay 2017 and haven't won a penny
    • MisterMotivated
    • By MisterMotivated 15th Sep 18, 4:25 PM
    • 196 Posts
    • 174 Thanks
    MisterMotivated
    I've never done the lottery but have always been interested in what motivates people I know who do. Its nearly always a desire to get rich without having to work for it or make wise decisions with finances.
    Originally posted by dont_use_vistaprint

    I have substantial savings, but still play the lottery occasionally, normally when I've had a bad day at work. It's normally due to the desire to get rich without having to work for it, although I'm sure if you offered anyone that option, they'd take it. I'm still working on getting rich, but building a net worth of ~15million by age 40 would be a stretch for me at the moment, so for the occasional 2 the lottery offers an (extremely small) outside chance of that. I think for the majority of people who play the lottery, it's not solely down to a desire to get rich without working for it (read: greed and laziness), but also a realisation that, no matter how hard they work, the lottery is actually the only "realistic" way they'll ever be rich enough to escape the day job of, for example, scanning baked beans in Tesco while worrying about losing their job to someone who only knows two phrases in English; "Beep" and "unexpected item in bagging area". Everyone can have lofty aspirations, but sadly the vast majority will go unfulfilled.



    I have Premium Bonds as well. I've filled generally of all the decent interest paying instant access accounts, and can't tie the money up due to a planned large purchase as soon as the opportunity arises, so have parked 10k in PBs for another outside chance of a win. The way I see it, it's costing me about 10 a month in lost interest (offset by 75 winnings since December 2017), which I can live with, and will be the first asset to be called into action in an emergency.
    Last edited by MisterMotivated; 15-09-2018 at 4:54 PM. Reason: minor tweaks
    • salad_dodger
    • By salad_dodger 21st Sep 18, 11:30 AM
    • 1 Posts
    • 0 Thanks
    salad_dodger
    I've had the maximum holding for three years and haven't achieved anywhere near a return. Going to give it until after xmas then start cashing to invest elsewhere
    • dont_use_vistaprint
    • By dont_use_vistaprint 21st Sep 18, 11:46 AM
    • 143 Posts
    • 35 Thanks
    dont_use_vistaprint
    I put 3K in Dec 2017 and won 25 in Jan, I put another 5k and won in Feb and March. Nothing in or out since. 75 profit on 8K in 10 months. I honestly think you only win with new tickets, it seems flawed. I'm ready to move it out once I find somewhere else where it will grow without having to keep moving it every 12 months , any ideas ?
    Last edited by dont_use_vistaprint; 21-09-2018 at 11:50 AM.
    • moneytorques
    • By moneytorques 21st Sep 18, 12:40 PM
    • 120 Posts
    • 41 Thanks
    moneytorques
    Ive had the maximum investment and in 13 months returned 375 profit.
    • eskbanker
    • By eskbanker 21st Sep 18, 1:08 PM
    • 8,459 Posts
    • 9,588 Thanks
    eskbanker
    I put 3K in Dec 2017 and won 25 in Jan, I put another 5k and won in Feb and March. Nothing in or out since. 75 profit on 8K in 10 months.
    Originally posted by dont_use_vistaprint
    You're only slightly below the average return and may yet achieve it - with average luck 8K would be expected to win 100 in prizes over a full year but you've only held 8K worth for eight draws so far. It's fundamental with PBs that returns are random though, so there'll be much more volatility with a medium sized holding over a shortish period.

    I honestly think you only win with new tickets, it seems flawed.
    Originally posted by dont_use_vistaprint
    Demonstrably not true - this month's winners of the top 1m prizes bought their bonds in 2003 and 2015, and other large prizes dated back to 1981.

    I'm ready to move it out once I find somewhere else where it will grow without having to keep moving it every 12 months , any ideas ?
    Originally posted by dont_use_vistaprint
    In your other thread you're looking for annual returns of more than 8-12% so premium bonds were always extremely unlikely to deliver anywhere near that - if you're happy with the risks then stick with P2P, etc....
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